The Fantasy Stock Market

Welcome back, loyal readers! I may be getting on your nerves, but as long as you like reading the content, I’m all for it, as the majority of the players I have written about and talked about this year have panned out so far. So with that, we take you to another week of this Stock Market article, that you seem to enjoy so much.

We’ll start off with Jon Jay, a real five-tool player who makes amazing diving  catches but, as we know, that isn’t important in fantasy. What is important, however, is the fact that he has collected a hit in all but three games he’s  played in. In those games, six of them have been multi-hit games. He has a .379 average on the year to go along with two homeruns and three stolen bases. He should have the job in St Louis locked up for the time being with a performance like that.

Next, we’ll look at a blind comparison for two third basemen:

Player A: .287 Average/5 HRs/14 RBI/18 R/ 3 SBs. Owned in 100% of ESPN leagues. ADP on ESPN: 59.8.

Player B: .298 Average/4 HRs/ 20 RBI/ 12 R/ 4 SBs. Owned in 36.3% of ESPN leagues. ADP on ESPN: 260.0.

While Player A, Alex Rodriguez, has, by far, a much better track-record, he is also much more injury-prone, playing no more than 138 games in each of the past four seasons. There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that, regardless of the off-the-field drama, he is a first-ballot hall of famer, but remember that he is on the Yankees, so he will be overvalued. Sell high on him while he’s performing well and before he gets injured.

Player B is a very good, underrated player, that is only owned in very few leagues because of the small-market team he is on. That small-market team is Seattle, where if your name isn’t Ichiro or Felix Hernandez, you are overlooked, which happens to be the case for Kyle Seager, a 24-year-old third -sacker. He deserves to be on your roster with the numbers you looked at above. Whether he is a corner infielder on your team, or a bench player, he needs to be rostered in your league, if he isn’t already. He has made a very strong case for himself.

This next player has been opposite of the other three, meaning he has been terrible as of late. This player would be J.D. Martinez, who has collected just two hits in 33 at-bats in the last 11 games. Needless to say, he hasn’t scored a run, and he has driven in just one batter in that timeframe. He’s in what we call the ‘sophomore slump’, so if you can buy low on him in dynasty and keeper leagues, do so, as he is much better than this. Believe me when I say that, as I watch every game of his, as I live in Houston. He’s pressing too much, and just needs to change his approach up there, and Manager Brad Mills has noticed that, and taken him aside. Hopefully he can get this turned around this year, so we won’t have to wait until next year.

It’s time for the Closer Corner again - Chris Sale‘s elbow is fine, and he will be moved back into the rotation, meaning that Addison Reed is the most likely candidate to close, according to @MLBDepthCharts’ Christian Martinez. Another closer who is out of a job is former Reds’ closer, Francisco Cordero, who blew all of the last three save opportunities and gave up eight earned runs in the last four relief appearances. Casey Janssen seems to hold the closer job at the moment in Toronto. I realize that this isn’t a closer move, but it does involve the bullpen change that has occurred in Minnesota, where former #1 starter Francisco Liriano has been moved to the bullpen after posting a 9.45 ERA and 21:19 K:BB ratio this season. Scott Diamond, who went 7.0 innings while striking out six, and allowing just four hits and walking one against the Angels, has appeared to replace him in the Rotation. Diamond could be worth a look in deeper leagues. Dale Thayer seems to have the closing job for the time being, with Huston Street on the DL. Thayer’s K:BB ratio is INF, with no walks so far. He won’t strike too many out but, being in Petco Park, he won’t need to. Thayer remains perfect in terms of earned runs this year and has only allowed four hits in six innings, for a 0.67 WHIP. Could he potentially be the closer forever?

3-2 record with 2.10 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Not to mention 25 strikeouts in six starts. Ross Detwiler is not this good. Yes he is hitting his prime and yes he is improving every year but he doesn’t have the talent to continually post these numbers. He is a sell-high candidate, as his FB% is 37.1%, 3.71 xFIP and 2.78 K/BB. Sell him now while you can get a decent offer, before his value plummets. He’s not good.

Max Scherzer has been very inconsistent this year, with outings of: 2.2 IP/8 H/7 ERs, 5 IP/10 H/5ER, and 4.2 IP/7 H/3 ER/ 7 BB. In the other games, he has a combined nine earned runs in 25.1 innings, to go along with 32 Ks. In those four good outings, he was rewarded with a quality start, making him a buy-low candidate if there is a disgruntled owner.

The Fantasy Stock Market

We missed last week, as we true Americans were busy getting things from the NFL Draft and UDFA signings in order and evaluating them. If you didn’t see me do such, go to my Twitter account, and start asking me some questions about it. But as we know, this is baseball season and, even though this article will be here year round for NFL, MLB, and NBA, baseball is the main priority right now for those of you not in dynasty football leagues, which we do recommend you join. Anyway, enough of my excuses and onto baseball!

Chris Johnson

This is CJ4k.  As he has only struck-out four times in the last seven games, collected a hit seven of nine games, and had four multi-hit games in those nine games. He isn’t walking much, but with an average of .311, he doesn’t need to. His BABIP is an unsustainable .406, but in 2010, he had a BABIP of .387. He’s seeing the ball better than he did two years ago, so it’s not out of the question to think that he could repeat those numbers, where he had an average of .308, and 11 homeruns. He has more pop than that as he enters a year where he just turned 27, which could be his prime. On Wednesday, Johnson went 4-for-4 with two homeruns and seven RBI. Meaning that, if he can hit 10 more, he will have surpassed his career high. It’s not that hard to do. Ride his hot-hand in 12-or-more-team roto leagues, or deep head-to-head leagues where you need batting average. He offers that–with minimal pop–but has some decent upside. Trust me on this, he is worth a pickup.

 

If you have paid any attention to any ‘pick-up’ articles this year, you will have come across the name of Bryan LaHair, who has an amazing .388 batting average, to go along with seven homeruns and 16 runs. Notice how I mentioned an unsustainable BABIP in the blurb about Chris Johnson? What about a .543 Batting Average on Balls in Play? That’s crazy. There’s little reason to think he will keep that up, along with his average in the stratosphere, so with the way competitors are gawking over him right now, it would be a smart move to try and deal him away before he comes back down to earth, and isn’t called the next Joey Bats, as he’s Mike Morse-lite.

 

For this next player, we will be looking at two doors: Door ‘A’ and Door ‘B’. Door A is an underrated former top Braves prospect with 17 runs, 8 stolen bases, two homeruns and an average of .273. The other Door, ‘Door B,’ has a veteran superstar that is respected by everyone, but has show regression this year. Such player, has a .310 Batting Average, two steals, one homer, and 11 runs. Which do you prefer? Jordan Schafer (A) or Ichiro (B)? We expect Ichiro to come around and have a better average, but the price tags on these players are much different, as one is a proven all-star, and the other is a former top prospect who, before this year, hadn’t proven much. But by watching every Astros game, I have seen Schafer change his approach, drawing 12 walks thus far, and battling pitchers deep into the count. Schafer is a fun, young player to watch, and Ichiro is definitely a buy-low candidate if you can get him. Both players are worth looking at in this case.

This next paragraph will be a collection of closers: Carlos Marmol has been relieved of his closing duties and Rafael Dolis will likely see the majority of the save situations, as he closed on May 4th, in a 5-4 game, in which he came through with the save against the Cardinals. This would purely be speculation to add Dolis, but Marmol should not be owned in any leagues, after struggling mightily last year, and performing like dung this year. Obviously, the money doesn’t matter. Also keep an eye on Heath Bell, who can’t seem to shed the thoughts of his new contract, with an ERA of 11.74, WHIP of 2.74, 0-3 W/L record, and 3-for-6 on save chances. While manager Ozzie Guillen says that Bell  will still be the closer, owners should look at Steve Cishek, who seems to be next in line, if the role does get away from Bell, which could happen with numbers like those above. Chris Sale has been moved into the closer role, due to mechanical issues, loss of velocity, and elbow soreness. This means that Hector Santiago will be moved to a middle relief role, not setup, and should not be owned in any leagues. Also, if anyone has been watching ESPN lately, Mariano Rivera tore his ACL, and will remain out for the year. Whether David Robertson or Rafael Soriano closes, you can bet that they will se a lot of opportunities, and our money is on Soriano, due to the fact that A, he is being paid a ton, and B, that he has more experience as a closer.

Jake Peavy

Peavy screams of sell high. Whether or not Petco Park was protecting him, he was a good pitcher with the Padres, but in his last two years with the White Sox, Peavy has struggled, posting a 4.63 ERA in 2010, and 4.92 ERA last year. Therefore, when I say sell high, I MEAN sell high. He can’t maintain a 1.67 ERA with an xFIP of 3.72  and 57.1 Fly Ball Percentage. Get what you can now before he heads south for the summer.

 

The Fantasy Stock Market 04/20/2012

If you enjoyed last week, great! We’re back to bring you another week of fantasy baseball goodness. It’s week two of the article, so you may be finding a diamond in the rough in this article, so we hope you enjoy it! So without further ado, let’s get this thing started!

Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Yes, That is spelled correctly. Mr. Longname over here, has collected a hit in each of his last six games, and while he doesn’t offer you much more than points, he has minimal pop, and some speed, and if he retains a starting job, he could be a .290 10/15 player with value in roto leagues. It remains to be seen if he can retain the starting job when Andres Torres comes back from injury, but with the way he has been playing, they may decide to keep him in a starting role as the leadoff man. The only knock on him, though, is that the Strikeout Rate needs to decrease a bit to sustain his average but overall, in 32 at bats, he has 12 runs, two doubles, one homer, three RBI, four walks, and one stolen base. He’s not elite but he is start-able.

Mike Napoli

Napoli has hit 5 homeruns in the last 4 games. What CATCHER hits like that?! It may help him being a ‘tweener, as he splits time with Moreland at first, so that could be how all of the homeruns are getting just crushed. Some would believe that is because of the park change, but last year, he had 13 of 30 homers at home, and that’s 17 on the road, for those of you that you don’t like math.This year, all of his dingers have come on the road. The only explanation we have for his uptick in homeruns is the progression he has made each year in the power department. He has increased or stayed the same his homerun totals every year since his sophomore season. He is an elite catcher, and should be treated as such, though, since he’s on fire, we wouldn’t blame you for selling high on him if you can afford to.

AJ Pierzynski

AJ was my sleeper of the year coming in, as I called him Mauer-lite. People laughed and called me idiotic, but with the way he has hit, people need to realize that he can still put things together this season, with a .400 average. His four homeruns this season are equivalent to the number of runs he has scored, but that is because of the team he is on. He also has 13 RBI, a slugging percentage of .829, and a .429 ISO. He may be back. Just maybe. He is, however, worth owning in all leagues bigger than 8 teams. He has been hot, and I don’t mean in appearance. Okay, maybe I do, but let’s not tell anyone.

Chad Billingsley

Returning to 2007 and 2008 seasons? While it’s still early, Chad has 7.52 K/9, 1.33 ERA, 0.44 BB/9, 45.3 GB%. He also has a 2-0 Record. Those numbers are ace-worthy. He’s also just entering his prime, at 27 years old, so those may not be fluke-y numbers. Remember what he did in his early years, with 3.31 ERA in 2007  and a 3.14 ERA in ’08. He was 28-15 in those two seasons, and if he can keep up this kind of performance, don’t be surprised if he sees numbers like that again. He needs to be owned in ALL leagues. That’s all I need to say.

Bartolo Colon

BFBC! No, not Battlefield: Bad Company, I mean BIG FAT BARTOLO COLON! It’s pronounced Cologne. But he probably smells like ass. But doesn’t play like it, with a 2.63 ERA. He struggled in his second outing against the Mariners, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings, but if you take away that horrible outing, he has allowed one run in 23 innings, only giving up 10 hits, and striking out 16. Those are great numbers from a guy that is looked at as a #4-#5 guy, if that. He won’t strike out many guys, but he saves your WHIP, if you play in roto leagues.

The Fantasy Stock Market

Hello, Loyal Readers! While some of you may come here for the amazing free logos, I am here to give you an amazing weekly article that puts specific players’ value under a microscope. I may be new to writing here, but I can assure you that this article will help you win your leagues.

We’ll start off with Josh Willingham:

I’m a Twins fan, so this blurb could be a bit biased; Josh Willingham has been absolutely tearing the cover off of the ball! Through six games and twenty-four plate appearances, Willingham has hit .409, with four home runs, seven RBI, and five runs. With a slugging percentage of 1.000 and a .591 ISO, it might , just might, not be biased of me to say that his stock is through the roof. Let’s take a look at someone who is receiving more hype, and not doing as much.

Player A:. 409 BA, four home runs, seven RBI, five runs, Slugging percentage of 1.000, .591 ISO, 24 Plate Appearances.

Player B: .273 BA, three home runs, seven RBI, five runs, one stolen base, .773 slugging percentage, .500 ISO, 28 Plate Appearances.

If someone knew the names of the players prior to this article, 9-out-of-10 of them would choose Player B. When, in fact, Josh Willingham has done more in less. We know that 24 and 28 plate appearances are small sample sizes, but by the looks of it, Willingham is a pure slugger, as opposed to Yoenis Cespedes (Player B), who could be a fluke, even with stats like those. Willingham has had prior success in seasons past, so we know that 25-30 HRs isn’t out of the question, if he can stay healthy. In seasons that he has played more than 130 games, he has had 26 (2006), 21 (2007), 24 (2009), and 29 home runs (2011). Make the Cespedes for Willingham swap everyday of the week, and you won’t regret it. Hell, you can even rename your team ” The Willinghammer” or ” The willing go ham”.

Yadier Molina

With the so-called ‘improvements’ made in the offseason and spring training, Molina has taken those and converted them so far into this season. He was overlooked in many standard 10-team mixed leagues, going near the back-end of the draft. It’s quite surprising that happened after hit over .300 with 14 dingers. Yadi got a huge contract, and seems to be proving himself worthy. As we should all know, he has an accurate, powerful arm behind the plate, so in leagues that count errors, his value gets a slight boost. I’m not saying I’m in love with him, but if you can get a good load in return, or get him for cheap, either way, you should do so. Infact, leave some questions in the comments bar, or tweet me on twitter, and your questions will be answered.

JD Martinez

Martinez has a lot to contribute in roto leagues, as he offers a great average with legit 20-25 home run power. With that being said, he has minimal speed, but can make up for it with the improved (didn’t take much) team, that will help him score more runs. He’s an ‘Stro, so if you can get him on the cheap, you need to do such. Expect him to do well this weekend back in his hometown, Florida, where he should get a lot of doubles, a category that he can also contribute in. Martinez seems to be a Billy Butler-type with just a tad more power.

Fernando Rodney

Rodney has had major control issues in the past, and, when I say major, I mean MAJOR, averaging just under 5 BBs/9. This season, though, he has not walked a batter in 2.2 innings pitched, and has racked up 3 saves. He seems to be the man in town with Farnsworth out a while longer, and if Farnsworth struggles, and Rodney continues to show decent control, things could switch in a hurry. Though, as we all know, Rodney has averaged a 4.36 ERA in 10 seasons, so this small sample size of 2.2 innings, could be a fluke. But in deep leagues, desperate for saves, he needs to be added, and could have finally put things together. He had 37 saves in 2009 with the Tigers, even while walking 4.88 batters-per-9, proving that he can get saves. Deep leagues only for now, until we have seen more.

Tim Lincecum

ENOUGH WITH THE POSITIVES! Lincecum has struggled this far with an ERA of 12.91, and a FIP of 4.81. Though it may not be all his fault, as he has a 2.64 xFIP, and 11.74 K/9. Once again, it’s a very small sample-size, but everything is when you consider it’s the first week of the season. But, that being said, the 11.74 K/9 is a career-high, even if it’s only 2 games in 7.2 IP. In his last meeting against Colorado, he had a career-low innings-pitched mark with 2.1. It’s sad to see him start off like this, but for those in need of a starting pitcher, it’s good, as you can afford to buy low on him, if the owner is getting very frustrated. Just like Greinke, who I almost cut in a dynasty league yesterday, because he had royally screwed me over. And the worst part of all, he screwed me, and didn’t even buy me dinner. It’s quite sad.