It’s week 11, and at this point you know if you have a shot at the playoffs or not. You have added and dropped, second guessed your self, cursed at Chris Johnson (I know I have), and maybe even traded a play or two. So what do you do now to keep the momentum going? Here is some friendly advice to the teams that are on top or looking to get into the playoffs.

Never “Set it and forget it”

Yeah that line worked for the “Ronco Rotisserie Cooker” (bad infomercial reference), but not for your fantasy football line up. These next few weeks are crucial; you cannot just coast and lock up the playoff spot we are all looking for. I have preached matchups all season and for the most part I have been right, play the guys with the best match ups, it is OK to bench the big names for the best matchups. Remember the real NFL teams are looking better than others, so they may sit someone for a game because he is “a little banged up” because they can win without him, especially an offensive linemen, which could effect the running game.

Last Minute Pickups

I know at this point of the season this is very tough to do, but, “another man’s trash, is another man’s treasure!” This is so true with add/drops at this point. Look at what the guys in your league are dropping, and if you can fit them in your lineup, do it. When you see someone add Lex Hilliard because he is Ricky Williams’s backup and they drop someone that had actually produced this year, add him to your bench, you never know when you will need an extra player, guys are getting injured left and right and the good teams are looking to the playoffs.

Kickers and Defenses can make a difference!

Yep, I said it. This is completely going against anything that I have ever said when talking about fantasy football, but this season it has been true. Let’s face it, points are points, whatever you can get is great. I usually draft a kicker with a big leg (extra points for distance) and a team that scores a lot of points, so basically I draft Neil Rackers every year. That has backfired on me as the Cardinals score more TD’s than they used to and I am getting 1 point instead of the 3 or 4 I used to. Look at the teams that have Red Zone issues, or the bad teams that are just happy to get on the board. Couple suggestions, Jason Hanson, Josh Brown, ect. As far as the Defenses go, matchups are huge, look at the bad teams and who they are playing, and if you can get their D, do it. I am actually playing the Detroit Defense against the lowly Browns. They cannot move the ball and the odds of a pick 6 are huge! Hopefully that helps you roll into the playoffs, if it doesn’t,

I feel your pain, been there, doing that! Look for another blog on how to be the spoiler!

Follow me on Twitter http://twitter.com/sportsguymike and email me questions, suggestions, and complaints, to sportsguymike@gmail.com

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Here is some last minute analysis on for week 9.  This is a make or break week and there have been many injuries and some intriguing matchups, this may help you as you look at your lineup Sunday morning.

Washington at Atlanta- The Redskins off a bye week and the Falcons are coming off a shootout loss against the Saints.  Even with the bye week the Skins are still lousy, but ATL’s defense has not been great this year and they are susceptible to the pass, with other teams on a bye, you can take a gamble on Santana Moss, and maybe even a look at Fred Davis, who is taking over for Cooley.  As for the Falcons, go ahead and play their top guys, I expect them to win easily.

Baltimore at Cincinnati- Great match up division rivals.  Baltimore’s offense is an enigma to me, I just do not get it, so many check downs.  Ray Rice is a fantasy must start as he benefits from the check downs, look for Flacco to put together something this week as well.  As for the Bengals, Carson Palmer has been great this year and I do not think that the Ravens D puts fear into teams as it once did, he should have a great game.  Look for Chad Ochocinco to make them “kiss the babies!”   Be careful of Cedric Benson, he has had a great season, but the Ravens know he was the first back to have 100 yards against them in about 2 years, they will be focused on stopping him.  Look for Chris Henry to make some big plays for the Bengals as well.

Arizona at Chicago- Wow, two teams that are some much alike, good one week and horrible the next.  I have been waiting for Fitzgerald and Boldin to do something, I have a feeling it may be this week, but the offensive line will have to protect Warner.  For Chicago, they will ride Forte as far as they can, I do expect Jay Cutler to have a good game as the Cards will put 8 in the box to stop the run.  Devin Hester has been averaging 80 yards a game the last few weeks, he is becoming a must start as a receiver.

Houston at Indianapolis- This is the biggest game in the Texans history and the Colts have lost Bob Sanders, and two cornerbacks to season ending injuries.  Look for a strong passing game for Matt Schaub.  We all know about Andre Johnson, but look at Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter to get some looks as well as Ryan Moats to take some carries from Steve Slaton.  I still think the Colts will win, because they are the Colts and that’s what they do, for their players, its business as usual, play all of their normal guys and look for Garcon and Collie to make more of a difference this week.

Miami at New England- The Pats after a bye are unstoppable, but the ‘Fins have the Pats number.  We all know this is the matchup that started the “Wildcat” phenomenon, the the second matchup Bellichek stopped it completely.  With that said, you still have to play Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, they will get the ball early and often.  Keep this name in mind, Devon Bess, he may be a difference maker is this game as the Pats will look to stop Ted Ginn, Jr.  On the Pats side, play all of their receivers, and shy away from any of their RBs, as the Dolphins cornerbacks are young and Brady will be passing all day.  A few sleepers for the Pats, Sam Aiken, a third receiver who will be open because of Moss and Welker, and Chris Baker, TE, Watson has been banged up, this guy can catch the ball too.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay- Poor Tampa Bay, they have the Pack after they lost to Brett Favre last week.  I see no problem playing Rodgers, Driver, Jennings, and Grant and their Defense as Josh Freeman, the Bucs 1^st round pick will be making his first start.  The only bright spot for the Bucs is that Charles Woodson is out for GB, they may have a long pass play, that’s about it, stay away from any player on the Bucs.

Kansas City at Jacksonville- Bad teams means ugly games.  On the Jax side, MJD is a must start, and even Garrard and Sims Walker are guys to consider starting against a bad team.  For KC, wow, this is tough because they have some decent receivers but they cannot catch the ball and they are one of the worst offenses in the league, play guys at your own risk.

Detroit at Seattle- This is what Seattle needs, a team like Detroit to come in and help jump start their offense.  The Seahawks let Edge go, so they must like what they have at RB, but I don’t, these guys are not Stephen Jackson, but of you have to, you know Julius Jones will get touches.  Look at John Carlson and Deion Branch to have decent games as well.  For Detroit, Kevin Smith is a must start as Seattle’s defense has injury problems.  Megatron (Calvin Johnson) is still a game time decision, so keep an eye on the reports.  If you have to pick someone up, look at Bryant Johnson, he will have increased targets if Megatron does not play.

Carolina at New Orleans- I still do not think that the Panthers have solved their offensive problems, but they realized that they have to run the ball, so look at De Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to get a lot of touches.  Do not count the original Steve Smith out, he makes things happen, keep him on your radar.  For the Saints, like the Colts, business as usual, I like all of their guys, Brees, Colston, Shockey, Thomas, and look at Bush to get more touches, they have been increasing each week.

San Diego at New York Giants- Two more teams that look great and then horrible, but I expect a shoot out and the Giants to win.  San Diego will throw the ball and Vincent Jackson is on fire, so look at Rivers and Gates to have big games too.  I am still not sold on their running game, but they are giving Tomlinson the ball, so he is a good play too, stay away from Sproles as his touches are going down. Manning will have a good game, but look for the Giants to run early and often, Bradshaw has been quiet, but I feel he will have a good game.  Their receivers have been good, but each week a new one steps up, Steve Smith is consistent, but Manningham and Nicks can be good plays as well in deep leagues.

Tennessee at San Francisco- Vince Young is back and the Titans have won, his stats are ugly, but the guy wins.  Chris Johnson is having a great season and should have another good game but do not expect a 200 yarder this week.  Nate Washington is healthy and coming along as well, keep an eye on him to see if VY looks at him more.  For San Fran, Frank Gore is back and running well, he is a safe play the rest of the year.  Michael Crabtree is for real and will eat up the Titans secondary.  Alex Smith and Vernon Davis are solid starts here too.

Dallas at Philadelphia- This should be a great game, an offensive game.  The Eagles have been putting McNabb in the shot gun more and it has paid off he is throwing better and more touchdowns.  Expect the Eagles speedy receivers to give the Dallas defense a hard time, Desean Jackson should continue to light up defenses.  Brian Westbrook should play this weekend, but look at the rookie, Lesean McCoy to steal some touches from him.  On the Cowboys side, I am not sold on Romo this game, the Eagles have stout defense and may great jumps in the passing lanes.  With that said, they have enough fire power to make this a great game.  Miles Austin will be held in check, but look for Jason Witten to finally have a good game, and Roy Williams is doing his best T.O. impression, he may do well also.  Don’t sleep on Marion Barber either.

Pittsburgh at Denver- Just like the Pats, the Steelers are great after a bye.  Denver is licking their wounds from another AFC North Team’s beat down last week in Baltimore, now they have the Steelers to deal with.  Expect the Steelers defense to pressure Orton and stop the Denver running game, in my opinion, only Brandon Marshall is a good start for Denver.  For the Steelers, Big Ben wants to be in the no huddle more, look for that this Monday, he has been great this year and is becoming a top fantasy QB.  With Ty Law expected to play corner back for the Broncos this week, that means their defense is banged up, look for the Steelers receivers to make a lot of plays, and look at Mike Wallace to have a deep pass in the play action.  Don’t worry about Hines Ward, he won’t be shut out this week.  Look for Mendenhall to carry the load on the ground, with Parker getting some touches.

Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and ask me questions about your lineup Sunday morning.

You can also email me at sportsguymike@gmail.com with fantasy questions and suggestions for my weekly blog!

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Like most of us that are addicted to Fantasy Football, we work with some of the guys in my league.  As a new blogger I really want to talk about the usuals, start/sit and sleepers, etc (I still do though).  My co-worker suggested that I write an article on how to make a late run.  We are both 2-4 (byes weeks, 9 team league) in the same league and even though we look great on paper, we have not caught good match ups.  These are a few things that you can do if you want to compete and make a run at the playoffs.

Waiver Wire

I have mentioned this before, but since there are so many bye weeks, you can pick up a gem to use the rest of the season.  Look at the add/drops and waiver wire, if you can afford to add a player on a bye to block someone else for picking them up, go for it.  At this point, the guys on the bench are not winning you games.  Teams that are doing well and need to add something for a bye week may end up dropping something valuable.  For example, I dropped Marshawn Lynch last week because I have RB depth, but needed a Defense.  He was scooped up right away, what I didn’t notice is that he has some favorable match ups moving forward.  I got my defense, but lost a starting RB.

Don’t Jump at the One Hit Wonders!

OK we all realize that Miles Austin is for real.  But for the most part, these guys that have unbelievable games in one week that are available is because they probably won’t do it again.  You have to look at the real numbers, how many people picked up Brandon Stokely after week 1?  He scored a TD, a crazy catch that bounced off Brandon Marshall’s pads.  Let your competitors jump on those guys and concentrate on the guys who have been there before.

Analyze The Match Ups and Reports

I know I have said go with your gut and do not analyze to much, when you are 2-5, 2-4, etc, the gut just isn’t working.  Take a look at each team and who they are playing, every crucial thing at this point can help.  What are the conditions going to be, windy, sunny, rainy, snowy, this all can make a difference, unless you are the Patriots (I lost that week because of Brady, still VERY bitter).  Look at each teams defense and see what type of yardage they let up, for example, the Titans are real good against the run, but horrible against the pass, a bunch of their DBs are hurt (just ask the Pats, why do I keep bringing it up?).

Look at the Injury Report

Your team may have a bad record, but the player that plays on the “real” team may not be bad.  If the player is a little banged up, keep an eye on the injury report that come out on Wed and look at the updates on practice through the week.  This could be crucial as a player that is questionable could change at game time.  Also if the team is rolling and they are deep at that position, they may sit the guy and that could impact your lineup last minute.  Last year with “Earth, Wind, and Fire” of the Giants last year, Jacobs was sat at the last minute and it hurt me in a crucial game, they sat him last minute because they had to good RBs behind him.

Try those things and see what happens.  I truely believe that these can help, and I have used these tips in my own league.  I once had 7 RBs on my roster, because if someone dropped a good player to cover a Kicker or Def, I simply picked them up and put them on my bench and now they are a crucial part of my line-up (someone dropped Ricky Williams and Frank Gore!).

Good Luck this week, more to come.  Please email any comments or suggestions to sportsguymike@gmail.com

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What a great day, Sunday, watching sports, some great games, and yes, looking at all the schedules to see what players have the edge on who they are playing today.  Here is my take on some of the games today.

Vikings @ Steelers- This should be the best game today.  Fantasy wise, be careful with Parker and Mendenhall, the Vikes have a great run defense and with Antoine Winfield, their starting CB out, look for Big Ben to go to the pass early.  Which leads me to say, play the Steelers WRs and TEs.  For the Vikes, they are facing a great defense as well, but with Aaron Smith out, the are not as tough against the run, Peterson is still a must play.  Polamalu is scheduled to start so be a little weary  about the Vikes WRs but Shiancoe is a must play and Chester Taylor is a sleeper, remember the Steelers blitz often especially with Polamalu in the line up, Farve will look to dump offs and TEs.  Both Defenses are a must play.

49ers @ Texans- Wow, what a fantasy game to watch!  Frank Gore is 100% according to Mike Singletary, he will get a lot of touches early and often.  What do we expect from Michael Crabtree?  He has two weeks of practice and he is starting this week, either he is that good, or their receivers are that bad, my take, its a little of both.  I suggest if you have him, sit him this week and look at his targets, he needs to get comfortable with Hill.  As for the Texans, Matt Schaub is on fire, and no matter what coverage is out there, he is still getting the ball to AJ, and nothing should change today.  I expect a super high scoring game, play all relevant 49ers, except Crabtree and Coffee, play all Texans, as there should be alot of throwing.  A great sleeper is Jacoby Jones (HOU), he is a speedster that is a return guy and is now becoming a target for Schaub.

Falcons @ Cowboys- “The most important game in the Cowboy’s season,” according to their coach Wade Phillips.  Dallas is a mess and have some guys banged up.  Roy E Williams may not go and Patrick Crayton is mad that he lost his starting position.  Even so, I am not sold on ATL’s defense, there will be a steady dose of Barber and Choice and that should open up the passing game for Romo.  If you need to play a receiver due to byes, I believe Crayton and Austin are still good plays, and of course Witten.  For ATL, “Matty Ice” is a definite play against a hurting Dallas D.  Ryan spreads the ball around alot, so you can get a TD from any receiver and TE, but he loves White and Gonzo.  Norwood is hurt again, so Michael Turner will be in on all plays.  A sleeper, Jason Snelling (ATL), see above, with Norwood out, more touches and targets out of the back field.

Cards @ Giants- Boldin is questionable, and I have not seen a lot from him this year.  They have a two headed rushing attack and they have yet to really get it going in my opinion.  Look to Warner to be on the ground alot as the Giants defense is very mad about last week and getting embarrassed by the Saints.  Of course start Fitzgerald and do not forget that Neil Rackers has a great leg, should get some extra points on long field goals.  For the G-Men, they opened up the season with wide receiver questions and no the question is which one is better?  The Cards have a good run defense, but I wouldn’t worry about Jacobs or Bradshaw, they will get there years, I really expect the Giants to roll in this game and bounce back well.  So to circle back, play Fitzy, Rackers, and Warner (if you need too).  For the Giants, play everyone, you should not have a problem this week.  Sleepers? Urban (AZ) if Boldin is not a go, he is a good pickup, works the slot and has great hands.

Enjoy the games, good luck with your teams, and feel free to contact me via twitter at www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and you can email me at mikesutt23@gmail.com with questions or suggestions!

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The following is my synopsis of Thursday’s ESPN Fantasy News e-mail from A.J. Mass.

Mass wrote: “One of the questions we receive frequently at ESPN.com is how on earth we come up with our weekly fantasy football projections. While we’re not exactly going to open up the vault and share our secret formula with the world, the question does have some validity to it. Why should you take the claim that David Garrard is a better play than Drew Brees in Week 6 at face value, especially if our own expert ratings might contradict those same projections?”

How I read that: A lot of you are really upset because our projections haven’t seemed to come to fruition this season, which only compounds the misery that comes with a Fantasy Football setback to a friend, family member, co-worker, or the trash-talking idiot that is the league commissioner’s basement-dwelling cousin. Our glances into the future have given most of you false hope this season, but the fact that we make some outlandish projections has you and your friends talking and coming back to the site throughout the week.

Mass wrote: “Here’s what you need to know about using our projections. It would be very simple for us to take our season-long projections, divide by 16 and simply trot out Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald and Peyton Manning (or Brees) at No. 1 every week. Simple, yes ? but informative? No way.”

How I read that: The difference between you and us is we are paid to do this and we’re not going to tell you how we do it. It’s job security, pal. We may analyze the matchups, imagine scenarios or sometimes just simply roll the dice to make our projections, but the one thing we do not do is take a season-long projection number and divide it by 16.

Mass wrote: “What our projections strive to do is point out which matchups are most and least favorable for each offensive player. By mathematically analyzing each team’s offensive tendencies in terms of play-calling and targeting choices, and then combining those statistics with the defensive strengths and weaknesses of that week’s opponent, the numbers we ultimately come up with show which players can be expected to perform better or worse than usual in a given week.”

How I read that: We do the same thing that you’ve done for years, but this explanation makes it sound a lot harder than what it really is. We just think about how many opportunities this player will have to score points on Sunday. In reality, we should be more in-depth and factor in tendencies such as this player is particularly good at running this route against this type of coverage and a team’s chances of throwing or running on a particular down and distance.

Mass wrote: “But these numbers are not to be taken as gospel; after all, predicting the future is an inexact science.”

How I read that: We’re doing the same thing that television, radio and newspapers have done for years and trotting out opinions that will only make you double- and triple-think your personnel decisions for the upcoming week.

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Larry Fitzgerald is generally classified as the top receiver in all of football. He was drafted number three overall in the 2004 draft and his 6’3 220 pound frame is not something you see in the everyday run of the mill pass catcher. He has done nothing but impress since he came into the league and last year when he led the Cardinals to the brink of a Super Bowl championship, fantasy owners started drooling in anticipation of 2009 drafts. Well friends, the time has come to form your new team, but if you have a first round pick and want to bring in a receiver, I would look at someone that’s not named Fitzgerald first.

His build is similar at 6’3 223 pounds. He’s only been in the league for one more year than Fitzgerald, has had three 1,000 yard seasons in the past five years, and in 2007 when he only played in nine games due to injury, he still managed to haul in 60 catches for 850 yards and a career high eight touchdowns. His name? Andre Johnson.

The difference between Johnson and Fitzgerald is that Johnson plays for a mediocre team, in a football market that is not covered very much by the media, and before 2007, had a subpar quarterback throwing him the football. But with Matt Schaub leading the way and a decent runningback now in place, Johnson may be poised to grab double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career and brace yourself…might also might flirt with gaining 2000 yards.

Matt Schaub has been a difference maker in Houston. The team’s 2002 selection of David Carr was a huge bust and before Schaub came aboard, the Texans were forced to trot out names like Sage Rosenfels, Tony Banks, and Dave Ragone when Carr went down. And that’s another thing. When Carr wasn’t down with injuries, he was often down on his back because his offensive line didn’t give him enough support. Having linemen that keep Schaub on his feet and poised to unleash his accurate arm has surely rubbed off on Johnson’s statistics.

Houston’s running game has been up and down over the course of the years too. Domanick Williams, an aged Ahman Green, and Ron Dayne have all donned the Longhorn logo at one time or another never to fully meet expectations as a starter for the team. However, the emergence of 2008 rookie runningback Steve Slaton has fans and fantasy owners excited as Slaton himself is looked at as a first round selection in fantasy drafts. What this means for Johnson is that teams can no longer afford to sacrifice the ground game against Houston. Defenses will have to leave more defenders in the box which will take the pressure off of Houston’s receivers including emerging tight end Owen Daniels, but more importantly, Johnson.

In a lot of cases, it is not always a recipe for success to have just one big-time receiver on a team accompanied by a somewhat unknown supporting cast. In Johnson’s case, it pays off. He is accompanied on the field by Andre Davis and Kevin Walter. Both of these guys aren’t the greatest of players, but they are good enough to keep defenses honest and require straight up coverage in their own right. This means that Johnson cannot simply be double covered in standard defensive sets. He may have a safety looming over the top, but he has proven to be just as fast and much stronger than most of the safeties in the league. This all equates to Johnson seeing more single coverage this year, and in turn, collecting even more yards and touchdowns than before.

While Larry Fitzgerald has one of the best offenses in football surrounding him and his stats validate his first round selection by many fantasy owners, it is my opinion that there are only so many passes to go around. With Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston taking away some of his catches, it diminishes his value to me. Johnson is the one sure fire target for Matt Schaub and he is sure to get as many passes thrown his way as humanly possible. The other thing that makes me weary about Fitzgerald is the stability of his quarterback. Kurt Warner has arguably put together a Hall of Fame resume, but he is aging, and if Matt Leinart is thrown into the fray, the Arizona offense might come to a screeching halt.

I am not saying that Fitzgerald is not worthy of a first round pick. His numbers show that he has produced year-in and year-out for Arizona and he is one of the most dangerous receivers in the league today. However, Andre Johnson’s similar skill set is often overlooked and although he is starting to get his due credit, by no means is he mentioned in the same breath as Larry Fitzgerald in most fantasy circles. But when your pick comes up in the first round and Fitzgerald is probably already off the board, take solace knowing that Andre Johnson could quite possibly be the best receiver in fantasy football in 2009.

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