During the draft a couple things may be difficult to handle. A quick example of a couple of those distractions: 1. Focusing on who to draft when the two idiots sitting next to you are arguing for and against you taking a player. 2. Keeping your draft sheet clean of food and 3.Allowing a player’s name value sway your opinion of him.

It happens every year to just about every fantasy football player. A high pick will be wasted on a fading superstar. Maybe it was LaDainian or Fast Willie this year. In year’s past it could have been Garrison Hearst or Marshall Faulk. Their name draws you in. You remember the good times. You think how can this guy hurt me, he’s been stellar his whole career. You blurt out the name and immediately you regret it. As the single digit points come in week after week, you think about cutting him. The problem with cutting him is he’s a thoroughbred. He has a pedigree. DAMNIT, he’s a future hall of famer he’s going to turn it around. Meanwhile, your season slides further and further into the abyss.

We’re hitting the mid way point here in week 8 and those of you who drafted behind the curve are sitting there with a roster of: Jake Delhomme, Larry Johnson, Roy Williams and Randy McMicheal. Why would you have a team like that? Not because you weren’t prepared, but because the name value drew you in. I fell victim to it in one of my leagues, I’m not immune. I drafted Larry Johnson AND Willie Parker. OOF. I cut ways with Johnson this week, mercifully. I cut him for Chad Simpson Why Chad Simpson? Joseph Addai isn’t lighting the world on fire and I’m trying to be ahead of the curve. I did take out a small bit of insurance of Grandmama. I picked up Kolby Smith. When your roster is full of garbage wasting a space on Kolby Smith really doesn’t seem like too much of a risk.

Sports Guy Mike wrote in his article this week beware the one hit wonder. There’s no reason to start scrambling for Devin Thomas, Spencer Havner or Sam Aiken after their bigish weeks. (or Antwaan Randle El for that matter, I’ve made that mistake). What you need to do is try to PREDICT the one hit wonder not react to the one hit wonders. Unless you’re in a league like my favorite league, where we have specific roster requirements, you have a team full of starters with some scrubs on the bench. After your studs bye week passes you start trimming the fat off the team trying to get a team full of players that can give you the best chance of winning the rest of the way. That, my friends, is when you should try and get yourself ahead of the curve.

I had Jerome Harrison targeted in a number of leagues. I was able to grabbed him in a draft in one league and off the waiver wire in another. He helped me win a few games in both leagues. As you may have read last week I was quick to get rid of him. Hanging on to Harrison would have put me behind the curve. Whereas at one point in time he was a very ahead of the curve selection; his value peaked. After that it was time to cut bait and move on. My co-GM and I targeted two running backs that we knew were risky this season but could pay big dividends as keepers next year. We snagged Fred Jackson and Rashard Mendenhall. We knew that Jackson would give us a few weeks of productivity before Marshawn Lynch came back. Then we assumed that Willie Parker wasn’t coming back to Pittsburgh in 2010. We had no idea what Medenhall would give us this year but we had to take the risk. We had to try and stay ahead of the curve. Not every pick needs to be out of left field. You can pick those solid week in and week out starters. You just need to have a few picks that are distinctively ahead of the curve and hope that they pan out.

I figured I should put my theory to test here in Week 8:

QB ahead of the curve:

David Garrard: He’s going up against a porous Titans D that is literally historically bad.

QB behind the curve:

Matt Schaub: He’s been great this year but can he keep it up? The Bills D have picked off a league high 13 passes and Andre Johnson is nicked up.

RB ahead of the curve:

Beanie Wells: You’ve been hanging on to him on your bench, and now it’s time to unleash him. He may not be the starter but he’s going to get enough carries and catches to make him a valuable start.

RB behind the curve:

Willis McGahee: Yes, he swiped some TDs early in the year but that was early in the year. Remember we’re trying to stay ahead of the curve.

WR ahead of the curve:

I wanted to say Mike Sims-Walker but seriously the word on him has to be out there by now. The one I’m going with is:

Keenan Burton: Don’t know who he is? I’m not shocked. This wide out for the Rams will be getting a ton of looks against a below average Lions Defense. He’s averaging roughly 10 yards per catch and only has one less catch than Donnie Avery. Look for him to find the end zone this week.

WR behind the curve:

Brian Hartline: It was one week. He’s not going to average 30 yards a catch every week.

TE ahead of the curve:

Fred Davis: Ok ok he’s not playing this week. Stay on the look out for him though, you’ll thank me later. I’ll go with Brent Celek instead. Celek doesn’t get a whole lot of publicity. He’s quietly become one of the premier tight ends in fantasy football. In a tight game between the Giants and Eagles he’s going to have an impact in the red zone.

TE behind the curve:

Jason Witten: Don’t crucify me, he’s an every week start without a doubt. It’s becoming clear though that Miles Austin is taking some of his targets.

There is a flip side to being a head of the curve. You can let it get to your head. Instead of going for a sure thing, you’re grabbing that shot in the dark sleeper for shock value. The Commish of my favorite league loves to remind you about all the players he’s “discovered”. He won’t remind you that he proclaimed he discovered Micheal Koenen. Let that be the final lesson of being “ahead of the curve”. Don’t brag about that diamond in the rough. Just let the kudos come to you and hey if you feel that I helped you out send some kudos my way. You keep reading here and I will do my best to keep you ahead of the curve.

Follow me on Twitter @HackLasalle

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