Fantasy Football Roundtable 2

Last week I introduced to you the first topic and set of answers from several bloggers around the web that are taking part in a fantasy football roundtable. The previous question was simply: what players are you avoiding in drafts this year. You can find the post here.

This week our post is a relatively simple again, but could be one of the most important questions asked as fantasy football drafts are in full swing: Which QB, RB, or WR with an ADP in the 10th or worse is your choice as the ultimate sleeper. These are players that are consistently being overlooked by fantasy owners and can be had for a very cheap price that will pay off nicely in the 2009 fantasy season. There’s always several players that fantasy owners brag about drafting after they put up big numbers, so why wonder who those guys might be when we’re just going to tell you. Here are our draft day sleepers that will be putting smiles on your faces when the season gets underway.

BigTroph
Josh Morgan (WR – San Francisco 49ers)

ADP: 11.10, 130 overall, 44^th WR

While the San Francisco quarterback position has not been steady since Jeff Garcia left town, it has not helped that the team has been void of a solid wide receiver. Since 2004, the team’s leading pass catchers have been Eric Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Arnaz Battle, a disappointing Vernon Davis, and a washed up Isaac Bruce. The team was excited to get Michael Crabtree in this year’s draft, but seeing as he still hasn’t stepped foot on the field, I don’t think they will be getting much production from him in 2009. One guy should be thankful that Crabtree hasn’t come around yet though and that is Josh Morgan.

A second year receiver, Morgan was already being pegged as a breakthrough candidate this year and now that Crabtree has decided to hold out, his stock continues to rise. In limited opportunities last year, Morgan showed flashes of potential. He only had 20 receptions in 2009, but he averaged 16 yards per catch and in week seven versus a strong New York Giants defense, he hauled in five catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. Morgan has average size at 6’0, 219 pounds, but he runs a low-to-mid 4.4 40. The NFC West is arguably the weakest division in football and Morgan will surely benefit from playing Seattle and St. Louis a combined four times this year. On top of that, in week 16 (most league championships) he goes up against the Lions. The quarterback position is still shaky, but Shaun Hill has looked better in training camp and it will be his first season under new coordinator Jimmy Raye who is doing big things to positively change the 49ers’ offensive philosophy. All of this will spell success for owners taking Morgan towards the end of their drafts to round out their receiving corps.

Razzball
Tim Hightower (RB – Arizona Cardinals)

ADP: 11.05, 108 overall, 41^st RB

Tim Hightower burst onto the scene in 2008 as Edgerrin James watched his career slowly slip away.  Hightower ended the season with 10 TD, but only managed 399 yards and a paltry 2.79 yards per carry.  To make matters worse, Arizona used their first round pick on RB Chris “Beanie” Wells from The Ohio State University.  However, Beanie has developed a reputation for being injury prone, getting hurt in his junior year at OSU, then going down August 1^st in camp with an ankle injury, and aggravating the injury on the 18^th.  Also, Hightower has run well in the preseason so far putting up 4.4 yards per carry against the Steelers and Chargers.  Atleast for now, Hightower’s job as the Cardinals starting RB has been solidified.  The Cardinals don’t face any tough run defenses to start the season (49ers, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, and Seahawks), so if Hightower can come out of the gate strong and fend off Beanie for a while, he should easily be looking at 1000 yards and 10 TD’s.  That puts him right up there with Gore, Lynch, Kevin Smith, and Ronnie Brown.

RapidDraft
Trent Edwards (QB – Buffalo Bills)

ADP: 11.03, 123 overall, 17^th QB

I like the potential that Trent Edwards brings into this season, and I love the value to be had at his ADP. Donovan McNabb and Jeff Garcia each posted much better touchdown numbers with Terrell Owens at their disposal than they have without him, and McNabb had easily the best season of his career across the board in the lone full year he shared with Owens. We don’t have the after comparison for Tony Romo yet, but I have no doubt that Owens’ presence eased his transition to being a pro starter and pumped up his touchdown totals. The Bills also plan to take more shots deep to Lee Evans, and connecting even a few times that way would help boost Edwards’ numbers.

Edwards was a pretty efficient passer when healthy last season, finishing with a 65.5 completion rate that was more than 9 percentage points better than that of his rookie campaign. His 10-for-10 outing against the Bears in his third exhibition game seems to follow that trend. I project Edwards to face one of the league’s easier schedules for quarterbacks, and the prevalence of the no-huddle in Buffalo’s plan shows that the coaches trust their young passer. The rebuilt offensive line will be a worry, but Matt Cassel showed us last year that you can get sacked a lot and still wind up productive.

Edwards regularly goes around 16th or even later among quarterbacks, but I think — as long as he can stay healthy — he’ll finish the season at least among the top 12.

Fantasy Football Roundtable
Shaun Hill (QB – San Francisco 49ers)

ADP: 14.01, 157 overall, 22^nd QB

I liked this dude a lot at the end of last year. Threw at least one TD pass in seven of the eight games he started at the end of the year.  I’d figure him for 3500 passing yards and about 20 TDs; which puts him in the Eli Manning/Jake Delhomme fantasy QB range, a steal at his current ADP of 14.01.

Rookie Blitz
Steve Smith (WR – New York Giants)

ADP: 11.09, 129 overall, 43^rd WR

Steve Smith is a wide receiver that I am trying to get after the 10^th Round on all of my fantasy teams in 2009.  Hixon has been the early sleeper pick so far in early drafts, but Smith possesses the better overall skill set and has the legendary Jerry Rice pulling for him.  Both Smith and Hixon were just named the starters for the Giants to begin the season.

The upside Smith presents as he enters the all important third year at wide receiver will allow you to load up at running back and lock down your starter at QB if you haven’t already done so.  Eli Manning already trusted him enough last year as Smith led the team in receptions from the slot.  I’ve always felt that if given the opportunity, Steve Smith could develop into a Reggie Wayne type of receiver.  If Smith can put up 1,000 yards and 6 TD’s after the 10^th round, then you have just committed highway robbery.

Fantasy Phenoms
Fred Taylor (RB – New England Patriots)

ADP: 11.04, 124 overall, 51^st RB

There are A LOT of players I have in mind that could have suited this question, but I am going to go with who I feel is getting far too little respect.

Fred Taylor is now the starting running back on the best offense in the game, and regardless of there being a full RBBC in New England, Taylor is far and away the best “runner” of the bunch.

With an ADP of 124.24, Taylor can be a steal of a back-up RB once you have your starters all locked up. New England tends to be a fountain of youth for aging stars, and Taylor is just a few years removed from posting back-to-back 5.0+ yd/carry and 1,100+ yard seasons.

Taylor will be getting at least 15 carries a game, and should be the main guy to run out the clock in the second half, as the Patriots will likely be protecting Tom Brady late in games.

Back to the RBBC- Kevin Faulk is more of a pass-catching threat out of the back-field, BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a short-yardage guy not likely to exceed 5+ carries a game, and Laurence Maroney is simply in Bill Belichick’s doghouse for whatever reason.

Steal Taylor in the later rounds, forget about the other Pat Backs, and hope for found value. If you aren’t relying on him as a weekly starter, the upside with that RB depth could be tremendous.

As always feel free to leave your comments below along with your 2009 super sleepers or guys you are aiming for late in drafts.

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Tags: Greg Dietz, Roundtable

This entry was posted on Thursday, August 27th, 2009 at 9:32 am and is filed under Fantasy Advice. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.