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Fantasy Football Week 8: Running Backs

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Take a look and feel free to tell me what you think. Worthy running backs are listed by team.

Arizona: Hightower may have a harder time than Wells, simply because Tim tends to get the screen pass while, after last week’s performance, Wells will see slight upgrade in attempts. Wells is still not starting,  so consider him a high No. 3 while Hightower, with the potential to have good rush and receiving yards, a No. 2.

Atlanta:  The Saints are tough on the run (8th in the league). Turner is only posting a 3.41 yards per carry. Not a good match up. Atlanta doesn’t perform a scary wildcat like the Dolphins do. Atlanta will get down to the red zone though, and there, Turner will have the opportunity to score touchdowns.  Not a No. 1 option this week, but because of his ability to score the touchdowns, he is a No. 2.

Baltimore: Ray Rice is the only one to even consider putting in your lineup on a weekly basis, but this week is not a good one vs the run (3rd in the league). Rices receiving yards can also be limited to the number 8 ranked defense in the league. Consider him a mid to low No. 2

Buffalo: Lynch is becoming his solid self once again, and can prove his solidness against the Texans. Consider him a high No. 2.

Carolina: Williams will have a very limited day rushing against ARI who are the number one run stoppers in the league. If he gets short passes, however, he could be a better option, but at Delhomme is in charge of the offense and will have very few of those opportunities. This all makes him a low No. 2.

Chicago: It SHOULD be a good day for Forte against the second to last run defense. He should be put in the lineup at the No. 1 position.

Cincinnati: Benson is on a bye.

Cleveland: Lewis and Harrison should not be considered unless in desperate need of a RB (Lewis being of better value).

Dallas: Barber is a tough option vs Sea who is allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game. However, withthe opening of the passing game, both their numbers should see an increase. Barber is a No.2 and Jones is a No. 3. Choice, because of his explosiveness, is a low No. 3.

Denver: Against a tough BAL run defense, both Buckhalter and Moreno are only low No. 3′s.

Detroit: Kevin Smith can be a high No. 2 vs STL, especially after his bye

Green Bay: Grant, as you may know by now, is play MIN in GB. MIN is ranked 10th in the league in stopping the run, but GB will do anything to win this one, so put Grant as a high No. 2.

Houston: Slaton. Start him. The Bills just can’t stop the run.

Indianapolis: Addai will have more carries with Browns’ injury and should be a safe start vs SF due to Peyton’s ability to open the running game through the pass.

Jacksonville: MJD, with his mixes of rushes and receptions, should have a fantastic game day vs TEN (defense is 9th in the run and last in the pass). Easily a No. 1 with his play catching ability.

Kansas City: On a bye.

Miami: The wildcat dominated the Jets when they played just a few weeks ago and there is no reason to think they can stop it now. Brown and Williams should be low No. 1′s.

Minnesota:  Peterson can run over any defense. Don’t worry on starting him, especially in this meaningful game at GB. He is a No. 1.

New England: On a bye.

New Orleans: Thomas and Bells are splitting carries, decreasing their values tremendously. While they are both are No. 3 against ATL, Bush is a low No. 2.

New York Giants: Jacobs is healthy, Bradshaw is not. Jacobs is closer to a low No. 2 than anything against in all-around monster PHI defense. Don’t look to Bradshaw too much, if at all with his injury.

New York Jets: Thomas, and now Greene, are facing a very mighty MIA defense in the rush. Thomas has much more value than Greene, and should be considered a high No. 2, with Greene a low No. 3.

Oakland: Fargas is your best value for OAK running backs against SD. He should be a No. 3.

Philadelphia: Keep an eye on the injury on Westbrook, if healthy, he should be a No. 2. McCoy, if given the start may have the same value. On updates of Brain’s injury, as his playing time decreases, McCoy’s will rise.

Pittsburg: On a bye.

San Diego: Tomlinson should be a No. 1 against OAK. Sproles a high No. 2.

San Francisco: Gore didn’t produce last week only because he was coming off of injury. A match up against IND shouldn’t help much though, but if QB Smith performs how he did late last week, he should be given the opportunity to succeed. He should be a No 2.

Seattle: Don’t take too much consideration in any Seahawk running back, all are low No. 3′s (Jones) to pretty much not start-able

St. Louis: Steven Jackson is a must start. He will rack up yards receiving and rushing, and I project he will get his first smell of the end zone this season. He is the No. 1 of No. 1′s.

Tampa Bay: On a bye.

Tennessee: Chris Johnson should easily be able to rack up yards and scores on long runs. White may be able to reclaim himself this game, and probably for this game one. Johnson- No.1, White- low No. 2.

Washington: On a bye.

Follow Daniel_Doelling on Twitter for one-on-one fantasy football advice!

Popularity: 1% [?]

Get yourself invited to the Dance!

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Lets look ahead. Every league has a team or two that is 5-2 or 6-1 at this point. I’m sure those teams have three solid running backs and four above average wide outs, maybe even 2 of the top 10-12 quarterbacks. There you are, sitting at 3-4 or 4-3, right on the verge of the playoff picture but maybe need to make a move to get you over the top.

Here is a list of guys who you might be able to pick up via trade. These guys could be sitting on their teams bench because they made a few good free agent pick ups and now are sitting on the pine. Not only are these guys pretty decent but their schedules are pretty good to. All you want as a fantasy owner is to be invited to the dance, the dance being the playoffs. Check out these guys and their schedules and maybe you have enough on your team to get them.

Each of the guys I’ve mentioned, I have broken their match-ups down from week 12 through week 16.

Beanie Wells – The Cardinals have a soft schedule from week 12 on, one of there final five games are against a “tough” defense.

Week 12 Beanie plays at Tennessee, whose run D isn’t all that bad, but by then Tennessee might have just one win and Zona will need wins so they will bring there A game to the east coast. I think we can finally put to rest the stat about Arizona can’t win on the east coast too. Home vs. Minnesota week 13 is a tough match up, even still the Vikings run D isn’t a top 3 or 4 like they have been the last two years. Week 14, huge game at San Fran, this game will be for the division most likely, but teams have run on them this year. See Slaton last week and Turner three weeks ago. Week 15 and 16 the Cardinals have the softest possible schedule for the fantasy playoffs, at Detroit and then home vs. St. Louis. The Rams are 26th in the league against the run and Detroit is 20th against the run. Hightower’s days as the starter appear to be numbered if Wells can hold onto the ball.

A few years back when Clinton Portis was a rookie in Denver, he watched and got limited reps until about half way through that season. His final eight games, Portis ran for over 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. Wells is more than capable of getting those numbers the second half of this season. Id trade Kevin Smith or Julius Jones to get Beanie.

Ricky Williams – Miami is a run first team, no shock there, but this year Miami has November and December games in cold weather climates. What do you do in the cold, you run the ball.

Week 12, Miami travels up north to play Buffalo. Buffalo is last in the league against the run. Doesn’t take a genius to figure it out, Ricky is a great start vs. Buffalo. The following week Miami again travels up North to play New England. The Pats D got younger and is playing very well. New England has struggled vs. the Wild Cat, not a bad option there either. Week 14, they host Jacksonville, a run D that is in the middle of the pack. By then Miami will be playing for a wild card spot and Jacksonville will be playing out the string. Come fantasy playoff time Ricky plays Tennessee and Houston weeks 15 and 16. One team will be counting down the days until the off season, Houston might be playing for something, but there D is hot and cold. Ricky should be someone you should target in a trade and expect big things from down the stretch. Id trade Devin Hester, Calvin Johnson or LT to get Ricky.

Greg Jennings – I am sure that Jennings owners are not happy that the aging Donald Driver is still the #1 in GB, and that Jennings numbers have taken a huge hit this season. On paper Jennings has some tough match ups, but the Ravens, Bears and Steelers are not what they once were. Ravens pass D is very suspect at best. Bears D just let up 5 td’s to Cincy, Matt Ryan moved the ball on them and so didn’t GB in week 1. The Steelers should be better down the stretch, but Favre and some inexperienced wide outs put up decent numbers on Pitt, and so didn’t Dante Culpepper too.

Jennings plays at Detroit week 12, then plays Baltimore, at Chicago, at Pitt, and then host Seattle week 16. Again, it looks like a hard schedule, but if you have someone like Pierre Thomas or Marion Barber that you can deal away, Jennings should increase production in November and December.

Michael Crabtree – go get him now. In my previous blog I told you that I was real high on Alex Smith. He finally did what he should have done right out of college, watch and learn. Smith is smarter and will work well with Crabtree in the following weeks to come. The San Fran O is defiantly a run first O. Once teams stack the box with 8 then expect Crabtree to get his. In week 12 Jacksonville comes out west, and they didn’t do so hot when the came out to play in Seattle a few weeks back. Week 13 they travel to Qwest Field and a huge NFC West match up, teams have had success throwing the ball. Their pass D looks better than it really is because of the shut outs of Jacksonville and St. Louis. Week 14 the 9ers then travel to Arizona in another game that has shoot out written all over it, Arizona pass D ranks 28th in the league. Week 15 they play the Eagles in another big game with playoff implications, Philly is always prone to give up the long the ball with all the blitzing they do, could be a sneaky play here. Week 16 San Fran has the Rams, they don’t want to play anymore. Needless to say, the 9ers are coached well and will be prepared to play hard to finish out their season. Crabtree will figure to be a huge part of what they are trying to do. I would trade Hightower or T.O. to get Crabtree.

I hope you all look good and hard at making a move to get yourself invited to the dance. No one wants to miss the prom.

Popularity: 3% [?]

The Days of Our Trading Lives

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Thought I would take some time to show you how some of the teams in my league like to go through trade proposals as everyone probably goes through this same stuff weekly. Enjoy some of these wonderful thoughts and laugh along with me.

Here’s the best conversation I’ve ever heard on the wire…

Popularity: 4% [?]

Week 8 – RAWanalysis

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Houston at Buffalo    1:00 PM  /  CBS Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, and Lee Evans are going to have big games.  If you have them, play ‘em!  If you’re QB is on a bye and there is nothing left in your league, pick up Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Teams have been running all over the Texans so opponents passing stats are slightly skewed.  Opponents have averaged 20 completions, 230 yards, 1+ TD, less than 1 INT per game against Houston.  Still waiting to hear more news about Andre Johnson, but I wouldn’t expect him to play.

Cleveland at Chicago    1:00 PM  /  CBS Cleveland has the 2nd worst rushing defense.  Opponents are averaging 35 rushing attempts, 170 yards and 1.42 TDs per game.  Matt Forte is the key to Chicago’s offense and I am betting he will have a week.  You can also play Jay Cutler, Devin Hester and Johnny Knox.

Seattle at Dallas    1:00 PM  /  FOX Dallas has had some big wins over the last few weeks, I don’t see them slowing down this week.  Play’em  SEA - T.J. Houshmandzadeh  DAL: Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Miles Austin…  Jason Witten might have a day, but he is no longer Romo’s #1

St. Louis at Detroit    1:00 PM  /  FOX OK, both of these teams suck but if I had either Steven Jackson or Kevin Smith, PLAY ‘EM!  St. Louis is allowing more than 130 rushing yards per game and has given up more than 1 rushing TD per game.  Detroit’s defense isn’t as bad, but Steven Jackson is a freaking beast and will get his first score of the season.  Both defenses are terrible, but I don’t see either team airing the ball out…

Denver at Baltimore    1:00 PM  /  CBS This is a tough one.  Denver’s defense has been lights out, while Baltimore’s defense is underperforming.  I would try to stay away from this game if possible, but if one of your studs is in this game…  PLAY ‘EM – Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.  If you need a 3rd WR, Derrick Mason is your man.

San Francisco at Indianapolis    1:00 PM  /  FOX Alex Smith looked like he was finally earning his paycheck.  Gore came back from his ankle injury and had limited production.  Vernon Davis is a beast and is becoming one of the best tight-ends in the league.  Peyton will continue to put up MVP stats.  Reggie Wayne might be a game decision.

Miami at NY Jets    1:00 PM  /  CBS With Leon Washington going on the IR, Shone Green has been the pickup of the week, but I would be cautious as Miami has one of the best rushing defenses in the league.  Play’em:  Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown.  I would stay away from the Jets.  (**On a side note, many people have dropped Cotchery..  PICK HIM UP!)

NY Giants at Philadelphia    1:00 PM  /  FOX Will the Giants lose three in a row? I wouldn’t bet on it.    DeSean Jackson looks like a stud, without Westbrook, he is the only offensive weapon McNabb has.  Brandon Jacobs, Steve Smith and Donovon McNabb..  If your #1 QB is on a bye, Eli Manning is your man.

Jacksonville at Tennessee    4:05 PM  /  CBS I have a feeling this is going to be a very high scoring game.  That being said, David Garrard, Mike Sims-Walker, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Chris Johnson.  Who else from Tennessee?  Your guess is as good as mine, but I would say LenDale White.

Oakland at San Diego    4:05 PM  /  CBS Teams are averaging 36 rushing attempts, 170 yards and 1.57 TDs per against Oakland…  They are the worst rushing defense in the league…  This could be LT’s breakout week, but don’t forget about Sproles. Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson and Philip Rivers should be started this week.  Stay away from Oakland….

Carolina at Arizona    4:05 PM  /  FOX I expect Arizona to blow out Carolina.  Play ‘em..  Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Tim Hightower and DeAngelo Williams

Minnesota at Green Bay    4:05 PM  /  FOX I hope Brett makes it through this week.  Aaron Rodgers is going to show Brett why it’s his house now.    Play’em – GB: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings    MIN: Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice are looking good.

Atlanta at New Orleans    8:30 PM  /  ESPN This should be a shoot out..  Play’em:  ATL:  Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez    NO: Drew Brees, Colston, Jeremy Shockey.  If you need to play one of NO’s backs, I would probably play Reggie Bush because he’ll get you a few catches too.  RBs average 4.6 YPC, but aren’t scoring on Atlanta’s defense.

Don’t forget to adjust your line-up for the bye week

Cincinnati -  Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco

Kansas City  – Really..  If you have to start someone on KC, I feel bad for you!

New England -  Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Stephen Gostkowski

Pittsburgh  – Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and the Defense

Tampa Bay -  haaaaaaa

Washington -  Clinton Portis and Santana Moss

Popularity: 2% [?]

Grading My Week 7 Picks

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

With week 7 in the books, I want to look back on my blogs last week to see what I actually got right and laughing at how wrong I was on other things.  Point for a correct player, minus one for a bad call.

Must Start Results

Donald Driver- GB- 2 Catches 84 Yards and one Touchdown- I’ll take that!  He has been the most consistent receiver that Green Bay has.  Winfield is out for the Vikings this week, look to start him again along with the other WRs for GB.  I’ll take a point!

Zach Miller- Oak- 2 Catches and 15 yards, this was a miss.  I was burnt the week before by Miller in two leagues, I thought Russell finally had something, I was wrong.  At this point, there is NO Raider worth starting.  Minus point, back to zero!

Wes Welker- NE- 10 Catches, 107 Yards and a TD.  He is steady and healthy and even returning punts again, I will take that W, and say that he is a must start in any league now.  Point!

Cedric Benson- Cincy- 37 Carries, 184 Yards and a TD.  Wow, wow, wow, that is all I have to say.  I watched this guy in college and seeing him in Chicago, I never thought he was going to pan out.  He is having a great season and has the workload, must start every week, and I will take a point!

Tashard Choice- Dal- 0 Carries, 1 reception, 23 Yards.  A huge miss, or was Felix Jones healthier than we thought, either way, a big fat 0!

I went 3 for 5, 1 point, but I will take that point!

Sleepers Results

Mike Wallace- Pitt- 2 carries 19 yards, 3 receptions 72 yards and a TD.  He improves every week, and he continues to impress the Steelers and Big Ben.  If you have a league with 10 or more teams, look to grab him and have him on your bench.  ESPN has him owned in 6.1% of their leagues. Point for the sports guy!

Andre Caldwell- Cincy- 2 receptions for 19 yards.  Palmer threw to Ochocinco a lot this weekend and Chris Henry actually showed up for a game, and don’t forget Benson got 37 carries against his former team.  Keep Caldwell on your radar for deeper leagues, 11.4% owned in ESPN leagues.  Not happy, minus a point.

Shonn Green- NYJ- 19 carries 144 yards, 2 TDs.  I liked him before Washington got hurt, but now his stock has grown.  He runs hard and will share carries with Thomas Jones (stock up as well).  Pick him up if you can!  Point to me!

Sam Aiken- NE- 2 Catches 66 Yards and a TD.  Another weapon for Brady, with Galloway gone and Welker Jr (Edelman) injured, he is not a bad flex option as the Pats look to throw early and often.  Point again!

Ahman Green- GB- Nothing, inactive.  He will be for a week or two to get acclimated to the offense; I am giving myself a push!

3 for 4 with the fifth being a push, I will take that!  Total points this week 3!  More to come, later in the week!

Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and email me with questions, comments, suggestions, or complaints, sportsguymike@gmail.com

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Fantasy Football Week 8: Wide Receivers

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Arizona: Fitzgerald should be considered a No. 1 while the hobbling Boldin should be no more than a No. 2, and possibly a low end No. 2

Atlanta: White should be a high No. 2, with potential to be a No. 1 against NO.

Baltimore: Mason/Clayton are low No. 3′s, but more like a solid No. 3 vs DEN. No other WR should be considered in this match up

Buffalo: Owens is only low No. 3. Evans higher a low No. 2

Carolina:Depending on Delhomme or his backup, with the backup a better option, Smith may surprise and come back to his No. 1 stature

Chicago: Hester and Knox should be high No. 2′s, with Hester with the higher upside vs CLE

Cincinatti:OchoCinco, Coles, Caldwell are on BYEs

Cleveland: Don’t consider any of the WRs despite what Palmer did last week. Massaquoi is the only one to consider if you are in a very deep league

Dallas: Austin is a must start No. 1. Crayton,if starting this week, should be a low No. 2. Willams a low No. 3 if he starts.

Denver: Marshall is a must start vs the poor BAL pass DEF. Royal doesn’t get targeted enough to be considered at the WR position, but at a return position he is.

Detroit: C. Johnson should be watched until game time. Until then, eye the waiver wire for Byrant Johnson and Northcut, but one, possibly Johnson, could be a low No. 2 vs STL

Green Bay: Driver is a must start vs MIN, Jennings has has many poor weeks, but we all know that the Packers really want to win at home vs MIN, so he should be a high No. 2.

Houston: Johnson should be monitored until game time, but don’t count on him this week. Instead, look at the up and down Walters, this week a high No. 2, and Jones, a high No. 3.

Indianapolis: Wayne is injured, so eye Collie and Garcon as high No. 2′s, with both eyes on Gonzalez, however.

Jacksonville: Holt is upping his stature, especially vs TEN this week, so he’s a No. 2. Sims-walker should be a No. 1.

Kansas City: Bowe is on a BYE

Miami: Ted Ginn is suppose to see less targets, so Bess (No. 3) is the only one to consider vs the Jets, and possibly Camarillo, a low No. 3

Minnesota: Rice is the man Favre goes to, but faces a tough GB defense, but should be a No. 2. Harvin a low No. 3. And Berrian a high No. 3.

New England: On a BYE

New Orleans: Colston is a No.1 vs ATL. Henderson should be considered over Meachem, but is only a low No. 3.

New York Giants: Against a PHI pass defense, Smith is the best option at a high No. 2. Hixon and Manningham, both TD possibilities, a mid No. 3.

New York Jets: Cotchery, if back, is only a No.3 and Edwards and Clowney low No. 3

Oakland: Just don’t consider any WR

Philadephia: Desean is a must start No. 1. Maclin a low No. 3.

Pittsburg: On a BYE.

San Diego: V. Jackson is a No. 1. Floyd is rising as a WR, and against OAK, can be a solid No. 2

San Francisco: Crabtree made his first start last week with 5 receptions for over 50 yards, but IND is a different defense, but Smith is a different QB. Consider him and Morgan only solid No 3′s.

Seattle: Housh and Burleson are both up/down players. DAL did give Ryan trouble, and appear different all around with the mentality that they can win because of Austin. But Housh/ Burleson are both No. 2

St. Louis: Avery is very unknown because of the hip injury which limits him. 50 -70 yards are game seem to be the norm. but can easily have a 100+ yard game and TD vs DET. Burton can be a No. 3 vs DET.

Tampa Bay: On a BYE

Tennessee: Britt shouldn’t be considered as much as  Washington who is a high No 3, closer to a No. 2 with JAX pass defense at 31st(262 yards/game). Britt a low No. 3 with potential.

Washington: On a BYE

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Popularity: 1% [?]

Fantasy Football Week 8: Quarterbacks

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Arizona: Warner vs #1 pass defense in CAR  may be tough. The NYG limited him to under 250 yards ,a TD ,and an INT with a playing, but limping, Boldin. Warner can be a No.2

Atlanta: Ryan faces a well rounded NO defense, be cautious on playing him. I’m viewing him as a No. 2 looking at what happened to him last week at DAL

Baltimore: Flacco, also faces a tough defense, DEN. View him as a low end No. 2

Buffalo: Fitzpatrick is set to start again ,with Edwards out on a concussion, against HOU. He didn’t have good numbers vs CAR, but they are tough on the pass. I can only see him as No. 3.

Carolina: Delhomme, even vs a poor pass defensive team like ARI, is not work a start. But if you must, a low No. 3

Chicago: Culter can easily show who he is once again vs CLE. Consider him a No. 1

Cincinnati: Palmer is on a Bye

Cleveland: Anderson is not worth starting. Ever.

Dallas: Romo is taking on SEA. And with Austin now in the starting position. Put him as your No. 1

Denver: Orton continues to look good. And BAL is old and cant stop the pass, make him a high No. 2

Detroit: Whether Culpepper or Stafford start vs STL. Consider them low No. 2 at home off the bye.

Green Bay: Rogers faces a MIN team that has slight trouble stopping the pass. High end No. 2

Houston: Shaub goes against BUF. But BEWARE, Johnson will probably be out. I will still make him a No 2., but stay cautious.

Indianapolis: Manning will have no trouble dominating SF. Wayne may be out, along with Brown. But he can still make plays despite these injuries. No. 1

Jacksonville: Garrard takes on the lack luster TEN passing game. Start him. Pushing a No. 1 at this game.

Kansas City: Cassel is on a BYE

Miami: Henne shouldn’t be considered vs the NYJ. He doesn’t play much in the wildcat, and gets only mediocre yards.

Minnesota: Favre had a good game vs PIT, but GB is 4th in pass defense and may be playing at a tough away crowd. Low end No. 2.

New England: Brady is on a BYE

New Orleans: Brees takes on an ATL that allowed Romo to thrive. Easily a No. 1

New York Giants: Manning is at PHI, 9th in the pass. Consider him a No. 2

New York Jets: Sanchez is against MIA. MIA is very tough against the run and will force him to throw. Be safe and don’t play him this week.

Oakland Russel: Don’t. Play. Him.

Philadelphia: McNabb is at home vs NYG who did show that they could handle the pass. But McNabb should be a low No. 1 this game.

Pittsburgh: Big Ben is on a Bye

San Diego: Rivers + OAK pass DEF = No. 1

San Francisco: Smith is to start. Has Davis and Crabtree, but IND(6th in pass vs HOU’s 18th) may cause trouble and we just haven’t see enough of him. But if you must, play him at a low No. 2

Seattle: Hasselback is at DAL, who gave Ryan some trouble, and is very up and down. But should be OK vs the 22nd pass DEF. High No. 2

St. Louis: Bulger and crew obviously really want to win vs DET ( 30th in pass DEF) and will go all out. I’m really going to push it, but I’ll say a No. 2

Tampa Bay: Johnson is on a BYE

Tennessee :If Collins starts, he is a No. 3. Vince Young though may be a low No. 2. Neither should be considered much, however. Even though JAX pass defense is poor

Washington: Campbell is on a BYE

Popularity: 1% [?]

Pick Ups of the Week

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Here is a list of my top pick ups of the week.

I’m sure by now everyone in your league has already picked up Austin Collie, Miles Austin and Sidney Rice. You missed the boat on them? Well I got a couple guys who might be available and could help you out down the stretch

QB – Alex Smith – SF – I’m not saying pick him up and start him right away, but grab and watch him get better then look at his schedule down the stretch. If you are an owner of McNabb, Palmer, or Romo and have some doubts about their consistency, give Smith an honest look. The former 1st overall pick plays the following teams down the stretch. Week 12 vs. Jacksonville, we saw what they did when they went west to play up in Seattle. Week 13 at Seattle, the 12th man isn’t a factor anymore in the great Northwest. Week 14, Monday Night vs. Arizona, we all know Zona’s D has been decent the last two weeks, but this game has the makings of a huge game with the NFC West crown on the line. Week 15, at Philly, I’ll give you that one should be a tough game, but week 16 home vs. Detroit should be a great play then. I’m not saying Smith will be a top 5 fantasy qb down the stretch, what I’m saying is that he is worth a look if don’t have Brady, Manning or Brees. Michael Crabtree is only going to get better…

RB – Shonn Greene – Pick him up today!!! I know he is the back up and I know he had a very good first impression against the Raiders, but Thomas Jones is on the wrong side of 30 and with rookie Sanchez, expect the Jets to run the ball even more. Greene has fresh legs and great speed. Expect at least 40% of the carries and all third down situations and will get garbage time yards too. Don’t play him this week vs. the Phins, but grab and when the match up is right or TJ goes down with old age, plug in Greene for good.

RB – Colby Smith and Jamal Charles – before we pick them up, let’s wait and see. I’m not high on anyone wearing a Chiefs uniform these days. They are on a bye week 8 anyways, unless you are extremely thin at RB, then Id stay away. If I had to choose one it would be Charles over Smith.

WR – Sam Aiken – He is the third receiver for the Pats. Brady loves to throw the ball and Aiken has been around now for a few years, he gets it, Unlike Galloway, Chad Jackson and others who have gone through the Pats system. Aiken looks like a TE but runs like a WR. Edelman is out for a while and Brady can’t throw to Moss and Welker every play. Pats are thin at RB, and even when they play a poor run D like Tampa, they still throw it more. Aiken should be available and could be an asset real soon. With potential shootouts on the schedule with Colts and Saints in November, Aiken could be huge in these games.

WR – Anthony Gonzalez – the youth movement has been great for the Colts. Collie knows all the plays but Garcon has the drops. Gonzalez was projected to have a great year, he was dropped in many leagues, if you have room on your team, go and get him. It’s never a bad thing to have a piece of the Colts O.

DEF – Dallas Cowboys – The last few weeks they have come to play, Ware got a new contract and they seem to be coming up with turnovers. Pick them up and play them vs. the inconsistent Seahawks O.

DEF – Arizona Cardinals – they are home vs. Carolina. If Carolina sticks with Delhomme then you know he will throw at least 2 picks. If Carolina decides to go with Feely or Moore than you can expect a lot of DeAngelo and JStew, but once one of them try and feed Steve Smith, the picks will surely follow.

Take this advice and run with it, see you later on this week my version of Play or Pine…

Popularity: 2% [?]

Fantasy Football Week 8: Sleepers

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Sleepers

Quarterback

  • Bulger vs DET. “WHAT!” Yes I know. But listen, Bugler is facing the 30th ranked pass defense and if he can get Avery to stay in the entire game the Rams DO have a chance to win. After getting the run game established with Steven Jackson, the passing game should come into action. The passing game is only really made up of  Jackson and Avery anyway, so if you’re in need of a QB this week, take a shot a Bulger.QB
  • Moore or Feeley of CAR. If Delhomme does find a seat on the bench this week, it would give one of these two QBsa shot to succeed. Steve Smith still the skills to be an elite WR, the only problem is the man who is giving him the ball, and one of these QB can certainly solve this problem against the ARI pass defense that is allowing  257.7 yards per game.

Wider Receiver

  • Steve Smith (CAR). Many have given up on him, but like I said in the above bullet, he still has his skills, they’re just not being used because of the QB. Seeing what could possibly occur withhim in the future, I was fortunate enough to pick him up off waiver last week in a standard nfl.com( 12 team league with 3 starting WRs.) I think he’ll have a 100 yard and 1 TD game, especially if one of the other 2 QBs get the start.
  • Avery. See above on Bulger.
  • Collie/Garcon. Wayne might be out, and we know what Peyton can do and we saw last week that the San Francisco defense can’t do. Look for the two players to have great game.
  • Kevin Walter. Johnson may be out, if not, limited during the game. Walter is an up/down player, but should be on the ‘up’ side this week.
  • Malcolm Floyd. He’s gotten more involve in the SD offensive and is facing a terrible OAK defense

Running Back

  • Beanie Wells. I’m not as big on him as I was at the beginning of the year calling,  prematurely the rookie of the year, but after last weeks performance against the Giants, he has earned some touches. The match up is also in his favor, the Carolina Panthers (133.2 rush yards per game allowed)
  • Sproles. I’m not too sure if he’s a “sleeper”.But because LT is healthy and now starting, he might as well be. He’s facing OAK this weekend. With only 5 attempts rushing against KC last week, he produced 41 yards, but he also managed 3 receptions for 58 yards and a score. OAK is no better than KC, and a he should have a good game.

Tight End

  • Scheffler. He’s a big man and is a big part of the game for Orton- just like Cutler used to do with him. And this match up is is certainly in his favor (BAL allows 241 pass yards per game) He’s becoming more involved in the offense and should be much involved in this game as well.
  • Marcedes Lewis. TEN can just not stop the pass. AT ALL. OVER 310 YARDS!! If you need to start a TE this week, this is the week to do it. (Week 4 vs TEN: 4 rec, 76 yards, 1 TD)

Kicker

  • Josh Brown (STL): Gets a good match up in the dome in DET. The Rams will manage their way into the end-zone, but, with their really bad luck in that area, may not score on every opportunity. Brown should be solid this week.

Defense

  • Dolphins. Allowing only 86 rushing yards per game is 4th in the league and the Jets will try to run the ball with no success, only making them throw the ball with even less success. Count on MIA if you need a defense this week
  • Chargers. They may be back, but this week won’t show it. Facing the Raiders, they should easily dominate with punt and kick returns, rack up sacks, and cause plenty of turnovers.

Deep Sleepers

  • Anthony Gonzalez. If he is healthy and can take the place of either Garcon or Collie. Keep an eye on him and if it is said that he starts, start him.
  • Bess (MIA) Ginn is to see less targets and is off of the starting lineup, and Bess may by their best bet.
  • McCoy (PHI). If Westbrook can’t go, it’ll be McCoy with the attempts. The Giants didn’t do much to stop Wells, so McCoy may have some success.

Follow Daniel_Doelling on Twitter for one-on-one fantasy football advice!

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Week 7 Must Starts and Sleepers

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Week 7 Must Starts and Sleepers

By: Sportsguymike

I am a numbers guy, I always have been.  In my real life, I am in sales, numbers, goals, and projections are around me all day.  When I look at match-ups, I do not always look at the numbers as other fantasy guys do.  For example, I have no idea what defense is bad against the tight end position, I just know, if have a good tight end; he should get the job done.  Here are my week 7 must starts that you may not think of…..

  1. Donald Driver- Green Bay- People laughed when I drafted him, but he has averaged double digit points (based on ESPN) for the season.  Rodgers clearly has him locked in his sights and Driver is still making great catches.  If you have him, he is clearly a player that produces.
  2. Zach Miller- Oakland- Yes, really a player from the Raiders makes a positive list in fantasy!  He is the only player that JaMarcus Russell is consistently getting the ball to, and Miller has the ability to make plays after the catch.  He was very good at Arizona State, but was drafted by Oakland; he is finally getting an opportunity to produce.
  3. Wes Welker- New England- A must start almost every week, but now that he is 100% and the Pats only have two legit receivers, his targets will increase and that is great for PPR leagues.  He always gets catches and makes good on them, but now the TDs are coming.
  4. Cedric Benson- Cincinnati- Again, a must start in most leagues, but if you have three good backs and you are looking for a reason to start or sit someone, do not sit Benson.  This former “bust” has found a new home in Cincy.  He also was cut by the Bears who drafted him in the first round after a few “boating incidents.” He will be running with a purpose this week and the Bears have a much banged up defense that just lost Pisa Tinoisamoa for the season.
  5. Tashard Choice- Dallas- during Jerry Jones’ radio show, yes he has one, he said they need to get Choice more involved in the offense.  I have been a fan of Marion Barber since he was at Minnesota, but I am not sold on him as an every down back.  Felix Jones is still banged up and remember, what Jerry wants, Jerry gets!

Now for some fantasy sleepers…..

  1. Mike Wallace- WR- Pittsburgh- Mike Tomlin has given up on Limas Sweed and Mike Wallace has stepped in very nicely as the Steelers number 3 receiver.  Pittsburgh is now a passing team and even with Ward, Holmes, and Heath Miller, Wallace is getting targets and they are calling plays for him.  He is a speedster, and has the ability for the long ball and they have added rushing plays to get him in the open field.  He has one 100+ yard game already; he is a great sleeper in deep leagues.
  2. Andre Caldwell- WR- Cincinnati- He is breaking out of his “sleeper” role and becoming a legit WR with Chris Henry’s lack of production.  This former Florida Gator is becoming a confident target of Carson Palmer’s.  He has made some key plays and big catches in the clutch to help the Bengals fast start.
  3. Shonn Greene- RB- New York Jets- He is healthy and they want to get him the ball, but with Leon Washing and Thomas Jones’ monster games last week, it was tough.  Jones will not have games like that again, look for Greene to get some carries and take away touches if he produces.
  4. Sam Aiken- WR- Patriots- With Joey Galloway going Bye Bye (he may sign with the Ravens, ssshhh) and Julian Edelman sidelined with a broke arm, this special teams standout will have targets coming his way.  The Pats are playing the Bucs, if you have any Patriot, play them.
  5. Ahman Green- RB- Packers- Not a real “sleeper” by definition, but since he has resigned with the Packers, and he is 47 yards from tying the all time Packers rushing record, look for him to get a decent amount of touches.  According to him, he is healthy and focused on football, he was very productive in his day in Green Bay, he will be a solid backup for Ryan Grant.

There you have it folks, please play your lineups wisely, and what I say may not always be the right thing!  Good Luck!

Follow me on twitter www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and send me any questions or suggestions to write about!

Popularity: 2% [?]

RAW – Week 7 Pickups

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

Tight End

Zach Miller (Oakland – TE) – Miller is getting more touches as JaMarcus Russell continues to improve.  Don’t expect him to break 80+ yard receptions every week, but he will be a good pickup if you need a TE.  Tight End’s are averaging 4 receptions and 40 yards against the Jets.

Wide Receivers

Sidney Rice (Minnesota – WR) – Based on information on CBS/ESPN/Yahoo for some reason he is still available in some leagues.  If he is available in your league, PICK HIM UP!

Lee Evans (Buffalo – WR) – It’s possibly someone in your league dropped him due to the limited production.  I wouldn’t bet the farm on him, but he could add depth to your roster.  Take a look at his Week 6 stats with a backup QB.

Running Backs

Laurence Maroney (New England – RB) – OK, so he had a breakout week against a terrible Tennessee defense in the snow.  Can he do it again?  I’ll take that bet, especially when they are playing Tampa Bay and both Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor are injured!!!

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (New England – RB) – A few reasons why I picked him up.  “The Law Firm” average 9.56 yards per carry last week.  The Patriots are playing Tampa’s terrible run defense.  If Maroney can’t get his run-on, he will get more than 7 carries.   Look what Jonathan Stewart did against Tampa Bay last week.

Popularity: 2% [?]

ESPN.com offers vague explanation of projections

Friday, October 16th, 2009

The following is my synopsis of Thursday’s ESPN Fantasy News e-mail from A.J. Mass.

Mass wrote: “One of the questions we receive frequently at ESPN.com is how on earth we come up with our weekly fantasy football projections. While we’re not exactly going to open up the vault and share our secret formula with the world, the question does have some validity to it. Why should you take the claim that David Garrard is a better play than Drew Brees in Week 6 at face value, especially if our own expert ratings might contradict those same projections?”

How I read that: A lot of you are really upset because our projections haven’t seemed to come to fruition this season, which only compounds the misery that comes with a Fantasy Football setback to a friend, family member, co-worker, or the trash-talking idiot that is the league commissioner’s basement-dwelling cousin. Our glances into the future have given most of you false hope this season, but the fact that we make some outlandish projections has you and your friends talking and coming back to the site throughout the week.

Mass wrote: “Here’s what you need to know about using our projections. It would be very simple for us to take our season-long projections, divide by 16 and simply trot out Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald and Peyton Manning (or Brees) at No. 1 every week. Simple, yes ? but informative? No way.”

How I read that: The difference between you and us is we are paid to do this and we’re not going to tell you how we do it. It’s job security, pal. We may analyze the matchups, imagine scenarios or sometimes just simply roll the dice to make our projections, but the one thing we do not do is take a season-long projection number and divide it by 16.

Mass wrote: “What our projections strive to do is point out which matchups are most and least favorable for each offensive player. By mathematically analyzing each team’s offensive tendencies in terms of play-calling and targeting choices, and then combining those statistics with the defensive strengths and weaknesses of that week’s opponent, the numbers we ultimately come up with show which players can be expected to perform better or worse than usual in a given week.”

How I read that: We do the same thing that you’ve done for years, but this explanation makes it sound a lot harder than what it really is. We just think about how many opportunities this player will have to score points on Sunday. In reality, we should be more in-depth and factor in tendencies such as this player is particularly good at running this route against this type of coverage and a team’s chances of throwing or running on a particular down and distance.

Mass wrote: “But these numbers are not to be taken as gospel; after all, predicting the future is an inexact science.”

How I read that: We’re doing the same thing that television, radio and newspapers have done for years and trotting out opinions that will only make you double- and triple-think your personnel decisions for the upcoming week.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Even personnel decisions are perplexing in ‘different’ league

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

One of my two leagues places an emphasis on quarterback performance by requiring each team to start two quarterbacks and awarding one point across the board for every 10 yards passing, rushing and receiving. Passing, rushing and receiving touchdowns each receive six points, with a two-point bonus given to every receiving touchdown between 40-49 yards and a four-point bonus given to every receiving touchdown between 50-99 yards. Quarterbacks receive an extra five points for 300-399 passing yards and an extra 10 points for exceeding 399 yards in passing. There are no bonuses for lengthy rushing touchdowns or for collecting at least 100 rushing or receiving yards.

As one competitor later put it on our message board, I figured this league would be “different” during Draft Day when one of my friends felt that he was set with Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers under center. I sent him an online message about having two quarterbacks with the same bye week. He took a second to think about it before responding that this was a two-quarterback league. His 3-1 record (the lone loss being a one-point setback courtesy of Peyton Manning’s Week Two heroics) told me that he would have this problem rectified going into Week Five.

Considering that my first win came courtesy of a 223-point explosion against another winless foe in Week Five, I have no business criticizing anyone. However, that is not going to stop me from analyzing the personnel decisions made by this friend in his game against an opponent with a 2-2 record. Bye weeks prevented this friend from posting starters in four of the 10 positions. Real life probably prevented him from correcting this problem, but he still would have been one quarterback short with the insertion of QB Shaun Hill, TE Anthony Fasano and K Jason Elam into his starting lineup.

This friend may have been conceding defeat and failing to comprehend how much of a role scoring can play in league tiebreakers, but he could have pulled out a tie. With Hill, Fasano and Elam’s scoring contributions from this past week, my friend would have had 45 extra points and a 114-114 tie.

The other competitor was limited to 114 points because he started Denver’s Correll Buckhalter and Jacksonville’s Mike Sims-Walker. Although he may not have learned of Sims-Walker’s team-imposed suspension until the receiver was scratched for Sunday’s 41-0 loss to Seattle, there was no reason to start Buckhalter when media reports throughout the week listed him as questionable at best.

Whether it was apathy or confidence, this personnel decision just demonstrates how “different” this league really is.

Popularity: 2% [?]

Rate my team

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

Ok, so after week 5 in fantasy football I am 5-0. You tell me, should I make some moves or stand pat? I was thinking maybe trade White for C Benson? What other package might you offer with my team and for whom? Any good 3 for 1 ideas? I am thinking Ronnie Brown, Fitz and Andre are untradable no? PS – This is a PPR league!

BIG TROPH (5-0)
SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS
QB Kyle Orton, Den QB
RB Ryan Grant, GB RB
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB
RB/WR Johnny Knox, Chi WR  P
WR Andre Johnson, Hou WR
WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR?
TE John Carlson, Sea TE
D/ST Ravens D/ST, Bal D/ST
K Lawrence Tynes, NYG K
Bench Ronnie Brown, Mia RB
Bench Roddy White, Atl WR
Bench Reggie Bush, NO RB
Bench Jay Cutler, Chi QB
Bench Kellen Winslow, TB TE
Bench Torry Holt, Jac WR
Bench Steve Breaston, Ari WR  P
Bench Mewelde Moore, Pit RB
Bench Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle WR
IR Darren McFadden*, Oak RB  O

Popularity: 10% [?]

How Life Interferes with Fantasy Sports…

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

So let’s face it. We’re here for a reason whether it’s Football, Baseball or Basketball… We love Fantasy Sports or in my case, I live and breathe it.

Once the pre-season starts, we begin looking for sleepers, the busts and the players ready to breakout. We check the wire for injury reports, trade rumors and other inside info that would help us come draft day. This is how we hope it would be, smooth sailing but sometimes “Life” has other plans for us and make things a lil bit more complicated (like a rookie wide receiver holding out) but like the true fantasy junkies that we are… We adjust, we adapt and we thrive under pressure. (Like Brett Favre throwing a miracle TD pass to kill the 49ers)

Once you’re locked in to the season, you can’t just shut that mojo off. Like a true GM you’re always searching, wondering and analyzing the endless possibilities to improve your team. We do this at work, in the car, at the mall, gym and especially at home(even in our sleep sometimes). It’s not always easy cuz you’re comparing stats of 2 available free agents while your boss suddenly walks up behind you and you rush to hide the screen or pretend that you’re going on your break. Doesn’t the boss know that making that free agent pick up can make or break your season? Rude! When you get back to your desk and put that screen up again, you kinda have to make sure if the people next to you(who happen to be in the same pool too) doesn’t see which player you have your eye on. Fantasy Sports is SERIOUS like any espionage movie, information is everything. Hide it at all cost and if a group discussion ever comes up about the pool, you always say nothing about the players that you want and big up the ones that you have no plans of picking up. Like Fox Mulder once said, Trust No One.

So just like the shifty QB that you are, after avoiding the opposing team’s pass defense at work… You’re back at home facing blitzes from your family. This aint no regular Blitzing, this is your 1985 Chicago Bears Blitz, you got people coming from every direction and you simply got no where to go. The wife and child are channeling Mike Singletary and the rest of the Bears’ defense. We always have to be prepared for these blitzes like watching a live chat on “who to pick up for these weekend’s games or who to sit or play” while the lil one is tugging on your shirt asking you to help with his homework. Homework can wait, dear child, Daddy’s working. Another blitz would be being invited to a big event on the same day that your draft is being held… I’m sorry the only event that can prevent me from attending my draft would be my wife going on labor and so far we have no plans of having any more kids.(at least that’s what i think) So when you dodge that one, you still have to put up with usual comments about why you’re constantly staring at the screen full of names and numbers when they don’t even CHANGE… Actually honey, they do. I have stat-tracker and the screen updates in real time. See! Chris Johnson just scored a TD! Yesss!

So at the end of the day you pretty much know how you’re team is doing, you would think you’ll have a good night’s sleep. Unless of course you have players playing in the late game or Monday nighter and you can’t really stay up so late cuz you have to be at work really early the next day.This is another one of life’s way of making things more interesting. So you put your Blackberry by your bedside and somehow just wake up at roughly 1 am so you can check the boxscore of that game and see how your player fared… Only then will you actually get the deep sleep that your body is craving for but if that player stank, you’ll torture yourself cuz you benched Steve Smith from the Giants cuz you thought the Bills were gonna make T.O. happy by throwing more to him. A big mistake that will keep you up all night. There goes your rest and that sets the tone for tomorrow when you face the GM for the team that beat you… You feel like Lebron after losing in the eastern finals not wanting to shake anyone’s hands cuz you know you should’ve won and the other team just got lucky.

So why do we do it? Why do we put up so much time and effort to play this game? Is it the money? $30 a pop on a 12-team league is not bad. Is it the online hardware that will permanently appear on our fantasy profile for everyone else to see and be jealous about? Is it for the bragging rights that comes along with besting everyone else at work? Maybe it’s about making BIG decisions that we’re normally afraid to make in the real world. Maybe it’s the illusion of power that comes with being in control of larger than life superstars by drafting, trading, benching or waiving them makes up for the lack of power that we have in our real lives.

For me, it’s all of the above.

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