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Week 16: Look out for…

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

Be aware of the Friday game: SD @ TEN

As always, play the Saints. This week they face a bad passing defense in Tampa.

Bengals: I know they are still recovering from the loss of Chris Henry (rest his soul) but they still need to clinch the division. Its a good week to do it too, facing KC. It looks good to play Palmer, 85, Coles, Benson, and even their defense. KC is 19th in the pass and 31st in the rush defense.

Rogers, Jennings, Driver: They also need to lock up a playoff spot, so they should be going all out, especially through the air at home vs SEA. SEA is 29th in passing defense and an are only playing spoiler and looking forward to the golf season. Don’t think of the game at PIT as a falling off point of their defense either, they should be solid against SEA.

Arizona: Now reports say that Spagnuoloisn’t looking to lose the rest of his games to secure the number one pick in the draft. But ‘Child please’.  Suh is for sure the next big thing (I’ll post an interesting fact on him below). STL defense isn’t the best and have been plagued by team wide sickness and injuries. Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Wells (more than Hightower) and if you out for a WR, pick up Breaston. STL defense: 22nd (pass) and 27th (rush).

Vikings: There is no question that something has been brewing in MIN, all the more reason to play their hearts out against a CHI team . I like Favre to Riceand Peterson. If Harvin is back and feels good, I like him too. I feel like Harvin is a huge piece of the passing game. The Viking defense should also be a great play.

Flacco and Rice: PIT still has no defense. These two teams are both looking to go to the playoffs. And in this match up, I’ll take BAL.

Fitzpatrick, Owens, Jackson :P laying at ATL this week , and their defense is 30th and 20th in the rush. Brohm is in, Fitzpatrick is out, making Owens unreliable. Jackson should get more touches.

Others I like: Alex Smith, Crabtree, Gore (vs DET), Jones-Drew (at NE), Harrison (vs OAK), Bush ( at CLE), Rivers, Jackson, Gates (at TEN), Young and Johnson (vs SD)

The Suh stats:

Line #1
98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #2
112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk

Line #3
116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk

Line #4
82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #1 = Alabama.

Line #2 = Florida.

Line #3 = Texas.

Line #4 = Ndamukong Suh

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Week 15: Look out for…

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

As usual, look out for the Saints. This week, they face the 21st ranked pass defense in DAL.

Jamaal Charles and Bowe: Facing a poor defensive team in CLE, the two should be able to light it up. Bowe’s 4 game suspension has been lifted, and, given that he is in shape, he should be ready to play. This may help Chambers due to less coverage, but until this is shown, these two are the only ones to consider.

Thomas Jones: The man has quietly put up very nice numbers, and this streak should continue this week while taking on the 23rd ranked ATL defense.

The Eagles: I’m not sold on the up and down 49er defense. Sure they caused many turnovers the other week against the Cardinals, but that’s Kurt Warner for ya. McNabb should be able to hook up with the beastly DJax for some nice yards. Maclin isn’t expected to play for a week or two, so Avant or maybe even Reggie Brown could be a nice play. I would like Weaver over McCoy and Vick (who can be very inconsistent). Also, keep an eye out on Westbrook; depending on the news he may be an OK play, but look to others first.

The Colts: They aren’t supposed to be rested this week, so they should be good to go against JAX. Manning, Wayne, Garcon, Clark, and their defense are really good plays this week.

Maroney/ Faulk: BUFis horrible against the run, and the two should rack up yards and TDs this week.

Green Bay: CLE beat PITlast week, is that enough info for you to play every Packer starter against the Steelers? Jennings, Driver, Grant, Rogers, (Lee/Havner, Jones are stretches) should all have solid games. Like I’ve said, PIT isn’t the same without the man with the hair.

Others I like: Flacco/Mason ( vs CHI), Warner/Fitz [keep an open ear to the RB situation in ARI] ( @ DET), Marshall [Raiders probably won't play with much heart with JaMarcus in](vs OAK).

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Week 14: Look out for…

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

Like I said..the Saints..yeaa…keep them in you lineup.

WEATHER MAY CHANGE THE PIT-CLE. (29MPH winds, sub-30 degrees, 70% chance of snow). WHICH WOULD DOWNGRADE QBS AND WRS FOR BOTH TEAMS..MOST LIKELY UNSAFE AND UNPLAYABLE..AND SLIGHTLY UPGRADING MENDENHALL AND HARRISON. This is when you wish you had a Michael Vick on your team.

Jerome Harrison: The Steelers defense is nothing, NOTHING, without Troy. Look at what happened last week against OAK. So this week, with a lesser CLE team, I only like Harrison. Quinn and Massaquoi may have similar numbers to Gradikowski/Murphy, but I’m not going to the bank on that one.

Big Ben, Holmes, Wallace, Mendenhall: Remember, PIT still has a nice offense, it’s their defense that lacks in performance. Ward may be out this week, which only increases Holmes/Wallace values. Big Ben should be able to easily hook up with the two. Mendenhall,too, should be able to run over the CLE defense. Once again, I’m going to call for a close game.

Flacco and Rice: DET defense (32nd in the pass and over 110 rushing yards per game)  is much different from the Packer defense(3rd in the pass, 4th in the rush) by far. Flacco and Ray Rice should have much better games than they did last week.

Green Bay: CHI has NO offense, so the Packer defense is an easy start. Rogers, Driver, and  Grant should be solid starts. But it’s hard to determine who get the other chucks of yards- Jennings, Finley, Jones, and TD wise, Havner and Kuhn. I’d go Jennings and Jones, but it’s a very tough call.

Garrard and Sims-Walker: Taking on a MIA defense that allows 242.9 passing yards per game, it should be a rather simple game for the combo. Garrard is starting to heat up again, but why the heck is Sims-Walker such an up and down player! But I think that they’ll hook up this week and put up good numbers.

Henne: Similar to their own defense, JAXis poor in passing defense ( 242.1 passing yards per game). Chad dominated a NE defense and there is no reason why he shouldn’t do the same against a bad JAX defense. There will one WR with good numbers this week, I’ll go with Bess ( 10 receptions for 117 yards and a TD vs NE), followed by Hartline ( 4 receptions for 41 yards and a TD vs NE).

Thomas Jones: He’s taking on a very bad TB rushing defense ( 160.1 yards per game). Simply put, he is a very easy start.

Chris Johnson: Continues to put up over 100 yards every week and this week he is at home taking on a STL team that is  being plagued with injuries. Atogwe is probably done for the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Vince Younghas a fantastic game, most likely hitting up Britt in the process.

Others: Alex Smith (vs ARI), Warner-Fitz-Boldin (@ SF), Shaub(if heatlthy) and Johnson ( vs SEA).

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Week 13: Look out for…

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Can I just state the fact that you should always be on the look out for the Saints..duh

Thomas Jones: Facing Buffalo, who no longer has sights on the playoffs, should be a pretty favorable match up. They are dead last in rushing defense allowing over 165 yards per game. The Jets don’t have much to play for either, but Jones want to lock in his 1,000 yards and 10 TD season. It safe to say he’ll have a good game.

Fred Jackson: Lynch-out as starter. Jackson- more than happy to prove he is worthy of that start. Jackson did just that with15 rushes and 2 TDs, 5 catches for 43 yards vs MIA last week. The offense also has some fire in them since the benching of Edwards. Fitzpatrick has been able to hook up with T.O. allowing for that running game to reemerge. The Jets rushing defense is similar to the Dolphins defense in the sense that they allow similar rushing yards per game (108). Jackson wants to remain the starter, so he’ll give it all hes got this week.

San Diego: From Rivers to Gates, and to Tomlinson and Jackson. This week should be an early Christmas gift as the Chargers visit the boring, bloody-bad Browns. Look for Rivers to hit more than his favorite targets- Floydshould also have a solid game. The Chargers defense should aslo be an easy start. The Browns defense: 24th in yards passing and 29th in yards rushing per game.

The HOU- JACgame: Texans defense: 15th and 22nd in passing yards per game and rushing yards per game, respectively. Jaguars defense: 26th and 10th in passsing and rushing yards per game, respectively. Shuab should easily be able to hook up with his favorite target in Johnson, and give some here and there to Walters, and Chris Brown (who is expected to start with Slaton OUT) For JAX, I like Sims-Walker and Jones-Drew. Both should be able to rack up yards and scores. Don’t rely on Garrard though, he just can’t be trusted.

The Bengals: Benson is set to start, and the offense all around seems better with him in despite what Johnson did last week (and congrats to him). Palmer should have a better week vs DETand also should OchoCino and Caldwell, and maybe Coles if he is healthy. I also like their defense this week as well.

Just an FYI, keep an open ear to when and who the Colts will be resting in the coming weeks- whether for entire or partial games. It may not come this week, and if it doesn’t, I like Garcon, Clark, Manning, and Wayne in the pass attack vs TEN.

Another FYI, if you own Elam, drop him for Matt Bryant. Elam was just released.

I’m also  looking forward to the Christmas game too (SD @ TEN) And could OAK @ CLE be another Detroit- Cleveland game? Will BAL @ PIT have huge playoff implications as well as DEN @ PHI?

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Week 12: Look out for…

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

The Pack Attack: The Packers are on a roll and get the opportunity to face the Detroit Lions. Rogers continues to prove that he can throw despite a horrid offensive line. He’s targeting big play maker Jennings now and still has the dangerous Driver. Grant had a good game vs the 49ers last week and should easily have a better one this week. The GB defense, too, is a very worthy start- DET faced CLE last week and has almost every slightly-valuable player questionable( Stafford, Johnson, Smith). The Packers will have something to be thankful for this Thanksgiving day.

Ricky Williams: He should be an easy start for everybody this week. He should also be thankful that he gets to face the Bills this week allow over 165 yards rushing every game. Brown isn’t in the game anymore, and Williams showed no slowing down without him. With more reps, he should have more big plays.

The Bengals: OAK played with meaning last week and was inspired to play better with a change at QB. But for CIN this week, CLE players have certainly given up. I think that last week’s heart breaking loss despite the big performances really got to them, and the Bengals will gladly take advantage of this. Palmer, OchoCinco, Coles, and Caldwellshould all have nice game (WRs in that order). Benson looks uncertain at this point, and Scottshowed a good performance last week so… 1) If Benson plays, look for Scott to take some carries. In this scenario, I like Scott over Benson, they’ll want to keep Benson safe so he can definitely play the rest of the season. But I’m not saying he should be a safe start if you play in a 12 team, 2 RB league.He should have an OK game though. 2) If Benson is out, Scott should have even a better game. Here, there is no reason that you shouldn’t start him vs CLE.

Warner, Fitgerald, Boldin, Breaston: TEN may be better all around, but they still have trouble stopping the pass. Look at what happened last week against HOU: Shaub connectied on 25 of  39 passes, and TEN just couldn’t find the formula to shut down Andre (but who can?). But buyer beware- Warner had a slight concussion last week, and if he shows ANY symptoms at all- before or during the game- he will be taken out and replaced with Leinart. In this case, no WR is a safe start. Keep an eye on this risk/reward match up.

Turner: Anybody that faces a defense that allows 168.9 yards per game rushing and 12 TDs (TB) is a safe start. He returned to practive Wednsday. I still think they’ll go heavier on the pass at first, but if that fails, they’ll increase the run. Keep an eye on him still, Snelling can take away some touches and have a big game himself if Turner doesn’t produce. Because it was early in the week when Turner showed up, I would start him. UPDATE: TUNRER IS QUESTIONABLE. REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON HIM. PICK UP SNELLING IF YOU HAVE TURNER, AND IF YOU DON’T, THERE IS NO REASON WHY YOU SHOULDN’T. SNELLING WOULD BE A GREAT STARTER IF TURNER CAN’T GO.

Tomlinson: KC rush defense is easy on the yards, but tougher on the TD. Look for around 90 yards and maybe, possibly a TD.

Other Team I like: Colts- Houston lost saftey Eugene Wilson. Big boost to Peyton’s blue and white family.

Other RBs I like this Week: Barber, McCoy (If Westbrook is out), and T. Jones.

Other WRs I like this Week: Mike Sims-Walker, V. Jackson, Burleson

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Fantasy Football Roundtable: Week 11

Thursday, November 19th, 2009
It’s hard to believe that we are already past week 10 and are now steaming toward week 11 of the NFL season. Some teams are fading fast while others are just counting down the days until they can clinch their division. Some teams have fired head coaches already and others are getting ready to sign their front man to a new extension. And in a season that has had its ups and downs, its highs and lows, two things have remained consistent. One is that the NFL has been downright great yet again. We have the surprises (Sidney Rice) and the busts (Matt Forte), the stories of heart (Michael Oher), and the stories of prima donnas (don’t even get me started). The other consistency is exactly what you’re reading, the Fantasy Football Roundtable. We love sitting down and bringing you our sleepers and busts each week to hopefully help lead your team to victory and even though fantasy playoffs are fast approaching, we’re still ready to help keep that undefeated team of yours with a spotless record and if you haven’t won a game yet, we want to help propel you to that W column. Without further ado, here are this week’s sleepers and busts from some of the best fantasy football minds on the web.
Three Sleepers
Greg Dietz, Right Here
Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens haven’t quite had the best go at it lately. After starting the season with a sizzle, the team has kind of flared out the past couple of weeks barely showing signs of life through most of Monday night’s tilt with Cleveland. While their matchup this week against the Colts isn’t exactly ideal, the situation in Indy’s defensive backfield is a very favorable one. With Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, and Bob Sanders all on the shelf, Tom Brady was able to rip apart that defense last week and while Flacco is not Brady, he will have plenty of opportunities to make big plays downfield. Clayton is a consistent underperformer, but could provide big value to an owner in need of an emergency start on Sunday.
Detroit Lions D/ST: It’s typically not my style to hype up a defense and special teams unit especially if it’s the Lions of all teams. However, let’s take a minute to think about this. This isn’t really as much of a tip of the cap to the Lions defense though. It’s more of an acknowledgment of the fact that the Browns just cannot find the endzone on a regular basis. At this juncture of the fantasy football season, many an owner are playing their defense week-to-week and if that’s the case for you, then the Lions wouldn’t be your worst option in week 11. Disregard the fact that Detroit has given up the most passing yards of any defense all year; they are facing Brady Quinn. Any defense facing the Browns is worth a pickup in a league and the Lions are no different.
Laveranues Coles, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Coles hasn’t been the best complement to Chad Ochocinco this season and surely hasn’t taken over where TJ Houshmandzadeh left off. However, Coles has had 11 catches in his last two games for 139 yards which is good for almost half of his total catches this year and almost half of his yards. The reason? Chris Henry is now on IR and Carson Palmer has no choice but to get Coles the ball more. This week the Bengals take on the Raiders and that promises to be a promising matchup for Palmer and the entire offense, Coles included. He should be available in most leagues and is definitely worth a start if you need a receiver.
Three Busts
Chet Gresham – http://football.razzball.com
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: The Packers have been playing strong defense all around, especially against the run.  They have given up two touchdowns on the ground, and both of those were to Purple Jesus which don’t really count.  Frank Gore is a beast, but I expect a down game for him, which of course could be a good game for any of your run of the mill schmos.
Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers: On the other side of the field the 49ers run defense is also pretty strong.  They aren’t unbeatable, but they are tough.  They went into Minnesota and held Purple Jesus under 10 fantasy points which is good and slightly sacrilegious. Patrick Willis will keep an eye on Mr. Grant.
Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys: Defenses would rather Roy Williams beat them that Austin. Washington’s pass defense is good except when the leave Brandon Marshall wide open, but yes, on the average they are good.  I see Austin having a tough game.
Quarterbacks
Jason Sarney – http://www.fantasyphenoms.com
Sleeper: Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – I’m a believer now, and with a soft match-up against Houston, I would feel very comfortable starting Young in Week 11. If you aren’t happy with your regular starter’s defensive match-up, Young has had success against Houston, and he knows a thing or two about playing in Texas. If you are gutsy enough to roll with Young on Monday night, think mid-two hundred yards passing, a couple of points with rushing yards and a pair of TDs either through the air or on foot. His done that before against the Texans, and I have a feeling he’ll do it again. Maybe even better this time around.
Bust: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Usually in these types of pieces I have Garrard as the sleeper, especially staring at a Buffalo Bills match-up.  Although a lousy 3-6, and dealing with the mid-season firing of Dick Jauron this week, the Bills have a solid pass defense ranked in the top-10 in the NFL in yards allowed per game, and are second only to the Saints in interceptions with 16.  This can be a ground control, running game in Jacksonville and I don’t see a lot of fireworks through the air for Garrard in Week 11. Bench him this week, and go with Vince Young.
Running backs
Matt Schauf – http://www.rapiddraft.com
Sleeper: Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons – One can only assume that the Giants spent at least some of the bye trying to figure out their run defense. Although the Chargers didn’t get a running back into the end zone in Week 9, the previous three opponents each saw at least two different backs score. With Michael Turner out, Jerious Norwood iffy and Aaron Stecker still Aaron Stecker, there’s no doubting who has the best chance of running one in for the Falcons this week. The Falcons have gotten at least one score from a running back in every game this season, and Snelling has gone in rushing and receiving. Even with Matt Ryan’s recent struggles, the Carolina game was the first time since Week 3 that they failed to reach 20 points. The team will score, and Snelling will likely be the beneficiary.
Bust: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs – Charles finally emerged last week as the primary rusher for the Chiefs, and he has the kind of speed that can create opportunities even in tough matchups. Don’t bet on it happening this weekend, though. Here’s the list of running backs who have scored against Pittsburgh this season: Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Lawrence Vickers (1-yard pass). The list of players who have carried more than five times against the Steelers this year and averaged at least 4 yards is even shorter: Benson, in the first meeting only. Even if you look to receptions, just two opposing backs have caught more than three passes against Pittsburgh. There’s no way to view this as a decent matchup. Keep Charles around for later, but look elsewhere this week.
Wide Receivers
Bryan Fontaine – http://www.rookieblitz.com
Sleeper: Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants – Hakeem Nicks faces a juicy match up against the struggling Falcons as the Giants return to action from their bye week.  The Falcons pass defense is ranked 28th in the NFL and they recently made Jake Delhomme look like a viable starting QB again and Steve Smith got his season back on track.  Nicks has become a vital part of the Giants passing attack with the disappearance of Hixon and the Mario Manningham struggling with minor injuries.  Nicks is a good bet to break off a big play and find the end zone in this contest.  He makes a great swing for the fences option if you start him a flex player or WR3 in Week 11.
Bust: Miles Austin, Dallas – Miles Austin has struggled as the top wide receiver for the Cowboys the past several weeks.  He was completely shut out against the Eagles before his game-winning TD catch in the 4th quarter.  Last week the Packers double-covered Austin all day and he only got going in the 4th Quarter with 4 receptions for 20 yards against their prevent defense.  Austin has the talent to become a #1 WR eventually, but he must learn how to handle being the focus of the opposing defenses each week.  Austin faces another tough match up against Washington in Week 11 as the Redskins own the top pass defense in the NFL allowing only 162.7 passing yards per game.  The Redskins will again double cover Austin and shadow Jason Witten with a linebacker limiting the Cowboys passing attack.  Temper expectations this week with Austin, he should only be used as a low-end WR3 or flex option.
Tight Ends
Ginny Loveless – http://www.footballdiehards.com
Sleeper: James Casey, Houston – Whether this is the week, James Casey is going to be a big part of the Houston offense going forward. Don’t take my word for it, Coach Gary Kubiak is quoted as saying that Casey will “become a big part of what we’re doing over the next seven games.” Owen Daniels was leading all tight ends in targets, and Casey is coming off of a year at Rice where he caught 111 passes, had 12 receiving touchdowns, ran for 6 touchdowns, threw for 2 touchdowns, and returned punts. A freakish athlete, he has an opportunity to be a star in that offense and he might as well get it started against a Tennessee defense that is last in the league in pass defense.
Bust: Antonio Gates, San Diego – In 12 career games against Denver, Gates has only scored 3 touchdowns, the last time in Week 5 of 2007. The Broncos defense as a group has allowed the least amount of yardage to the tight end position (262) and is 2nd in receptions allowed with 28. If you are in standard leagues, you might want to take a look at a better matchup like John Carlson against Minnesota, Brett Celek against Chicago, or better yet, Greg Olsen against Philadelphia.
Defense
Jim Day – http://fantasyfootballwhiz.com
Sleeper: Tennessee Titans – Tennessee is on a 3 game roll that Chris Johnson predicted after their first win, well actually he said they would run the table, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It just seems that Vince Young has not only given the offense a shot in the arm it needed, but the defense has benefitted also. In the last 3 games they have 10 sacks and 7 interceptions, 3 of which were returned for touchdowns. Considering Schaub has been sacked 15 times already and is averaging 1 interception a week, Tennessee is the defense you want starting for you this week.
Bust: Baltimore Ravens -The Ravens are just not that dominating defense we used to know anymore. Sure they had a strong performance in week 10, but that was only an exhibition game against Cleveland. This week they get the read deal; Peyton and all the other Colts. Look for the Colts to command the time of play with plenty of work for Addai and Brown against a defense that has yet to score a defensive touchdown, has only two fumble recoveries all year and only 2 interceptions over the last 4 weeks. This is the New & Improved Ravens team…just not on defense.

It’s hard to believe that we are already past week 10 and are now steaming toward week 11 of the NFL season. Some teams are fading fast while others are just counting down the days until they can clinch their division. Some teams have fired head coaches already and others are getting ready to sign their front man to a new extension. And in a season that has had its ups and downs, its highs and lows, two things have remained consistent. One is that the NFL has been downright great yet again. We have the surprises (Sidney Rice) and the busts (Matt Forte), the stories of heart (Michael Oher), and the stories of prima donnas (don’t even get me started). The other consistency is exactly what you’re reading, the Fantasy Football Roundtable. We love sitting down and bringing you our sleepers and busts each week to hopefully help lead your team to victory and even though fantasy playoffs are fast approaching, we’re still ready to help keep that undefeated team of yours with a spotless record and if you haven’t won a game yet, we want to help propel you to that W column. Without further ado, here are this week’s sleepers and busts from some of the best fantasy football minds on the web.

Three Sleepers
Greg Dietz, Right Here

Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens haven’t quite had the best go at it lately. After starting the season with a sizzle, the team has kind of flared out the past couple of weeks barely showing signs of life through most of Monday night’s tilt with Cleveland. While their matchup this week against the Colts isn’t exactly ideal, the situation in Indy’s defensive backfield is a very favorable one. With Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, and Bob Sanders all on the shelf, Tom Brady was able to rip apart that defense last week and while Flacco is not Brady, he will have plenty of opportunities to make big plays downfield. Clayton is a consistent underperformer, but could provide big value to an owner in need of an emergency start on Sunday.

Detroit Lions D/ST: It’s typically not my style to hype up a defense and special teams unit especially if it’s the Lions of all teams. However, let’s take a minute to think about this. This isn’t really as much of a tip of the cap to the Lions defense though. It’s more of an acknowledgment of the fact that the Browns just cannot find the endzone on a regular basis. At this juncture of the fantasy football season, many an owner are playing their defense week-to-week and if that’s the case for you, then the Lions wouldn’t be your worst option in week 11. Disregard the fact that Detroit has given up the most passing yards of any defense all year; they are facing Brady Quinn. Any defense facing the Browns is worth a pickup in a league and the Lions are no different.

Laveranues Coles, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Coles hasn’t been the best complement to Chad Ochocinco this season and surely hasn’t taken over where TJ Houshmandzadeh left off. However, Coles has had 11 catches in his last two games for 139 yards which is good for almost half of his total catches this year and almost half of his yards. The reason? Chris Henry is now on IR and Carson Palmer has no choice but to get Coles the ball more. This week the Bengals take on the Raiders and that promises to be a promising matchup for Palmer and the entire offense, Coles included. He should be available in most leagues and is definitely worth a start if you need a receiver.

Three Busts
Chet Gresham – http://football.razzball.com

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers: The Packers have been playing strong defense all around, especially against the run. They have given up two touchdowns on the ground, and both of those were to Purple Jesus which don’t really count. Frank Gore is a beast, but I expect a down game for him, which of course could be a good game for any of your run of the mill schmos.

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers: On the other side of the field the 49ers run defense is also pretty strong.  They aren’t unbeatable, but they are tough.  They went into Minnesota and held Purple Jesus under 10 fantasy points which is good and slightly sacrilegious. Patrick Willis will keep an eye on Mr. Grant.

Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys: Defenses would rather Roy Williams beat them that Austin. Washington’s pass defense is good except when the leave Brandon Marshall wide open, but yes, on the average they are good.  I see Austin having a tough game.

Quarterbacks
Jason Sarney – http://www.fantasyphenoms.com

Sleeper: Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – I’m a believer now, and with a soft match-up against Houston, I would feel very comfortable starting Young in Week 11. If you aren’t happy with your regular starter’s defensive match-up, Young has had success against Houston, and he knows a thing or two about playing in Texas. If you are gutsy enough to roll with Young on Monday night, think mid-two hundred yards passing, a couple of points with rushing yards and a pair of TDs either through the air or on foot. He’s done that before against the Texans, and I have a feeling he’ll do it again. Maybe even better this time around.

Bust: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Usually in these types of pieces I have Garrard as the sleeper, especially staring at a Buffalo Bills match-up.  Although a lousy 3-6, and dealing with the mid-season firing of Dick Jauron this week, the Bills have a solid pass defense ranked in the top-10 in the NFL in yards allowed per game, and are second only to the Saints in interceptions with 16.  This can be a ground control, running game in Jacksonville and I don’t see a lot of fireworks through the air for Garrard in Week 11. Bench him this week, and go with Vince Young.


Running backs
Matt Schauf – http://www.rapiddraft.com

Sleeper: Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons – One can only assume that the Giants spent at least some of the bye trying to figure out their run defense. Although the Chargers didn’t get a running back into the end zone in Week 9, the previous three opponents each saw at least two different backs score. With Michael Turner out, Jerious Norwood iffy and Aaron Stecker still Aaron Stecker, there’s no doubting who has the best chance of running one in for the Falcons this week. The Falcons have gotten at least one score from a running back in every game this season, and Snelling has gone in rushing and receiving. Even with Matt Ryan’s recent struggles, the Carolina game was the first time since Week 3 that they failed to reach 20 points. The team will score, and Snelling will likely be the beneficiary.

Bust: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs – Charles finally emerged last week as the primary rusher for the Chiefs, and he has the kind of speed that can create opportunities even in tough matchups. Don’t bet on it happening this weekend, though. Here’s the list of running backs who have scored against Pittsburgh this season: Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Lawrence Vickers (1-yard pass). The list of players who have carried more than five times against the Steelers this year and averaged at least 4 yards is even shorter: Benson, in the first meeting only. Even if you look to receptions, just two opposing backs have caught more than three passes against Pittsburgh. There’s no way to view this as a decent matchup. Keep Charles around for later, but look elsewhere this week.

Wide Receivers
Bryan Fontaine – http://www.rookieblitz.com

Sleeper: Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants - Hakeem Nicks faces a juicy match up against the struggling Falcons as the Giants return to action from their bye week.  The Falcons pass defense is ranked 28th in the NFL and they recently made Jake Delhomme look like a viable starting QB again and Steve Smith got his season back on track.  Nicks has become a vital part of the Giants passing attack with the disappearance of Hixon and the Mario Manningham struggling with minor injuries.  Nicks is a good bet to break off a big play and find the end zone in this contest.  He makes a great swing for the fences option if you start him a flex player or WR3 in Week 11.

Bust: Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys – Miles Austin has struggled as the top wide receiver for the Cowboys the past several weeks. He was completely shut out against the Eagles before his game-winning TD catch in the 4th quarter.  Last week the Packers double-covered Austin all day and he only got going in the 4th Quarter with 4 receptions for 20 yards against their prevent defense.  Austin has the talent to become a #1 WR eventually, but he must learn how to handle being the focus of the opposing defenses each week.  Austin faces another tough match up against Washington in Week 11 as the Redskins own the top pass defense in the NFL allowing only 162.7 passing yards per game.  The Redskins will again double cover Austin and shadow Jason Witten with a linebacker limiting the Cowboys passing attack.  Temper expectations this week with Austin, he should only be used as a low-end WR3 or flex option.

Tight Ends
Ginny Loveless – http://www.footballdiehards.com

Sleeper: James Casey, Houston Texans – Whether this is the week, James Casey is going to be a big part of the Houston offense going forward. Don’t take my word for it, Coach Gary Kubiak is quoted as saying that Casey will “become a big part of what we’re doing over the next seven games.” Owen Daniels was leading all tight ends in targets, and Casey is coming off of a year at Rice where he caught 111 passes, had 12 receiving touchdowns, ran for 6 touchdowns, threw for 2 touchdowns, and returned punts. A freakish athlete, he has an opportunity to be a star in that offense and he might as well get it started against a Tennessee defense that is last in the league in pass defense.

Bust: Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers – In 12 career games against Denver, Gates has only scored 3 touchdowns, the last time in Week 5 of 2007. The Broncos defense as a group has allowed the least amount of yardage to the tight end position (262) and is 2nd in receptions allowed with 28. If you are in standard leagues, you might want to take a look at a better matchup like John Carlson against Minnesota, Brett Celek against Chicago, or better yet, Greg Olsen against Philadelphia.

Defense
Jim Day – http://fantasyfootballwhiz.com

Sleeper: Tennessee Titans – Tennessee is on a 3 game roll that Chris Johnson predicted after their first win, well actually he said they would run the table, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It just seems that Vince Young has not only given the offense a shot in the arm it needed, but the defense has benefitted also. In the last 3 games they have 10 sacks and 7 interceptions, 3 of which were returned for touchdowns. Considering Schaub has been sacked 15 times already and is averaging 1 interception a week, Tennessee is the defense you want starting for you this week.

Bust: Baltimore Ravens -The Ravens are just not that dominating defense we used to know anymore. Sure they had a strong performance in week 10, but that was only an exhibition game against Cleveland. This week they get the read deal; Peyton and all the other Colts. Look for the Colts to command the time of play with plenty of work for Addai and Brown against a defense that has yet to score a defensive touchdown, has only two fumble recoveries all year and only 2 interceptions over the last 4 weeks. This is the New & Improved Ravens team…just not on defense.

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Week 11, Are you In or Out??

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

It’s week 11, and at this point you know if you have a shot at the playoffs or not. You have added and dropped, second guessed your self, cursed at Chris Johnson (I know I have), and maybe even traded a play or two. So what do you do now to keep the momentum going? Here is some friendly advice to the teams that are on top or looking to get into the playoffs.

Never “Set it and forget it”

Yeah that line worked for the “Ronco Rotisserie Cooker” (bad infomercial reference), but not for your fantasy football line up. These next few weeks are crucial; you cannot just coast and lock up the playoff spot we are all looking for. I have preached matchups all season and for the most part I have been right, play the guys with the best match ups, it is OK to bench the big names for the best matchups. Remember the real NFL teams are looking better than others, so they may sit someone for a game because he is “a little banged up” because they can win without him, especially an offensive linemen, which could effect the running game.

Last Minute Pickups

I know at this point of the season this is very tough to do, but, “another man’s trash, is another man’s treasure!” This is so true with add/drops at this point. Look at what the guys in your league are dropping, and if you can fit them in your lineup, do it. When you see someone add Lex Hilliard because he is Ricky Williams’s backup and they drop someone that had actually produced this year, add him to your bench, you never know when you will need an extra player, guys are getting injured left and right and the good teams are looking to the playoffs.

Kickers and Defenses can make a difference!

Yep, I said it. This is completely going against anything that I have ever said when talking about fantasy football, but this season it has been true. Let’s face it, points are points, whatever you can get is great. I usually draft a kicker with a big leg (extra points for distance) and a team that scores a lot of points, so basically I draft Neil Rackers every year. That has backfired on me as the Cardinals score more TD’s than they used to and I am getting 1 point instead of the 3 or 4 I used to. Look at the teams that have Red Zone issues, or the bad teams that are just happy to get on the board. Couple suggestions, Jason Hanson, Josh Brown, ect. As far as the Defenses go, matchups are huge, look at the bad teams and who they are playing, and if you can get their D, do it. I am actually playing the Detroit Defense against the lowly Browns. They cannot move the ball and the odds of a pick 6 are huge! Hopefully that helps you roll into the playoffs, if it doesn’t,

I feel your pain, been there, doing that! Look for another blog on how to be the spoiler!

Follow me on Twitter http://twitter.com/sportsguymike and email me questions, suggestions, and complaints, to sportsguymike@gmail.com

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Insight Into the Backup RB

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

Injuries, injuries, injuries. Many injuries have plagued the RB position and have caused fantasy owners to panic. What should you do? Take a look at some of these names that could potentially save your season.

Justin Forsett, SEA: Before his 17 rush, 123 yard game at ARI last week, Justin was averaging 6.15 yards per rush on just 20 rushes for 123 yards. After that game he averaged 6.65 yards per rush. With Jones out probably for more than a week, he could be a good addition AFTER this week vs MIN. He may not put up solid numbers in MIN this week, but stick with him if Jones can’t go, he may even be able to steal a great deal of carries away from Jones. The rest of his schedule? At St. Louis, home vs SF, at HOU, home vs TB, at GB, home vs TEN- sounds pretty good to me.

Jamaal Charles, KC: Now the number one but none the less.Before last week’s breakout vs OAK, Jamaal was averaging 5.24 yards per rush on 29 rushes for 152 yards. After last week- 5.43 yards per rush. Now, he did face OAK, but when you impress the coach by suddenly taking over the RB duty, you gain his confidence. It will be hard to carry this over to PIT, but like I stated in “Week 11: Look Out For…”, PIT is not the same without Polamalu. I can see him gaining good yards, but still be weary. After PIT: At SD, home vs DEN, BUF, and CLE, then at CIN and DEN. DEN has been shaky, and he will have great games at CLE and BUF. The only match-up that scared me is CIN. Charles may be a good, sturdy pick up.

Beanie Wells, ARI: His first 4 games( when he averaged almost 6 carries per game) he rushed for 4.13 yards on 23 rushes. However, his last five games, he has rushed for 4.76 yards on 63 carries for 300 yards. His schedule hasn’t been too tough either, and the games coming up ( at STL and TEN, home vs MIN, at SF and DET, then home vs STL and GB) seems pretty favorable after throwing out the game vs MIN. His number of carries have been past single digits for 4 of the last 5 games and is heating up. He may be the next AP in the coming years, but this year, until the carries split discontinue, he may only be a number 3 fantasy starter.

Ladell Betts, WASH: He he averaged 1.91 yards per rush when Portis well playing,and looked down right awful. When Portis came out, however, he had 4.49 yards per rush and a TD in each of the games ( at ATL and home vs DEN). The upcoming schedule, with games against DAL, PHI, NO, OAK, NYG, DAL (again), and SD doesn’t look to great. Good games can come vs NYG and OAK, and possibly NO, but I’m not too sold. If he holds up vs DAL this week, and Portis is still out of course, then grab him.

Jason Snelling, ATL: Snelling looked good before Turner went out, having a 6.42 yards per rush. After that injury, he put up 4.95 yards per rush. ATL’s offense hasn’t been like last year’s, and I can’t see Snelling being that offensive weapon that their missing. Turner kind of was the offensive. But because of ATL’s pretty good OL, Snelling may put up decent numbers, and could get the opportunity to shine while Turner is down. He can be a good pick up if you need him.

Lesean McCoy, PHI:Westbrook’s injury, as sad as it is, may be McCoys hole to prove he is the real deal. He doesn’t seem to perform the same with Westbrook out, but now he’ll be able to see first team practice and get a good reps. Westbrook has good news on him, but another hit, maybe even a soft on, can probably end his career; the team will go easy on him, or at least I would. Games against CHI, WASH, ATL, NYG, SF, DEN, and DAL is somewhat of a  roller coaster schedule, and PHI offense struggles either all around, at the run, or witht the pass, on every other game. But when PHI offense shines, everybody performs. He should be a definite pick up.

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Week 10: Look out for….

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

First off, be aware of the Chicago at San Francisco game on Thursday at 8:20 eastern time. Make sure your lineups are before this game.

The entire MIN team: Brett Favre vs a DET team allowing 263.1 passing yards per game, Peterson vs the same team allowing 109.9 rushing yards per game, and Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice. The MIN defenseshould be a no brainer this week after SEA just tore apart Staffordin week 9. Expect a TD and 100+ yards for Rice and Harvin, a spectacular game from Favre, and for Peterson to run down the throat of the DET defense.

The entire NO team: STL defense ( 238.6 passing  yards/game, 134.8 rushing yards/ game) should be obliterated by Brees, Colston, Meachem, Bush, and Thomas. I’m not throwing Henderson in there this week, but he may have a so-so week (75 yards?). Can’t expect anything less than 100 yards and a TD for Colston and Meachem. Bush should have around 100 total yards, and Thomas should get 100+ yards and a TD or two. Brees- just play him and forget him.

Ray Rice and Joe Flacco: I projected, though I didn’t post it, that BAL wouldn’t have a too great of a game and that Palmer and Benson would stomp all over them  (Rice did have a really nice game though). That was week 9 vs a strong CIN team, thia week they’re facing the worst defense in the league- CLE(238.6 passing/game, 170.5 rushing/game). I can see Rice racking up somewhere near 200 total yards (last week he totaled 135 yards) and Flacco getting past 250 yards easily with 2 TDs. Masonwill get the majority of the receiving yards at the WR position with Washington getting the scraps ( 50 yards and a TD).

Chris Johnson: BUF defense (173.6 yards rush/ game) is dead last, and Johnson has been tearing teams apart the last 3 weeks- NE, JAX, SF have all been terrorized with Johnson’s 100+ yard games. His work load has also been increasing (17, 24, 25). Both Jamal Lewis and Ryan Moats had over 100 yards rushing against the Bills. There is no reason why you should not play him this week.

Tony Romo and Austin Miles: Romo has been hot- only 1 INT since week 5 with 9 TDs, and that schedule hasn’t been too easy (ATL, SEA, PHI, for example). Austin, too has been hot with a TD every week since week 5. Now, in week 10, they’re playing a GB team that allowed Josh Freeman, a rookie, to get TB’s first win to go along with 205 yards, 3 TDs, and only 1 INT. With DAL’s nice defensive line, and GB’s horrible, HORRIBLE, offensive line, Romo and Miles should have the opportunity to hook plenty of times and should accumulate fantastic stats.

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Week 9 Breakdown, Start, Sit, and Sleepers

Saturday, November 7th, 2009

Here is some last minute analysis on for week 9.  This is a make or break week and there have been many injuries and some intriguing matchups, this may help you as you look at your lineup Sunday morning.

Washington at Atlanta- The Redskins off a bye week and the Falcons are coming off a shootout loss against the Saints.  Even with the bye week the Skins are still lousy, but ATL’s defense has not been great this year and they are susceptible to the pass, with other teams on a bye, you can take a gamble on Santana Moss, and maybe even a look at Fred Davis, who is taking over for Cooley.  As for the Falcons, go ahead and play their top guys, I expect them to win easily.

Baltimore at Cincinnati- Great match up division rivals.  Baltimore’s offense is an enigma to me, I just do not get it, so many check downs.  Ray Rice is a fantasy must start as he benefits from the check downs, look for Flacco to put together something this week as well.  As for the Bengals, Carson Palmer has been great this year and I do not think that the Ravens D puts fear into teams as it once did, he should have a great game.  Look for Chad Ochocinco to make them “kiss the babies!”   Be careful of Cedric Benson, he has had a great season, but the Ravens know he was the first back to have 100 yards against them in about 2 years, they will be focused on stopping him.  Look for Chris Henry to make some big plays for the Bengals as well.

Arizona at Chicago- Wow, two teams that are some much alike, good one week and horrible the next.  I have been waiting for Fitzgerald and Boldin to do something, I have a feeling it may be this week, but the offensive line will have to protect Warner.  For Chicago, they will ride Forte as far as they can, I do expect Jay Cutler to have a good game as the Cards will put 8 in the box to stop the run.  Devin Hester has been averaging 80 yards a game the last few weeks, he is becoming a must start as a receiver.

Houston at Indianapolis- This is the biggest game in the Texans history and the Colts have lost Bob Sanders, and two cornerbacks to season ending injuries.  Look for a strong passing game for Matt Schaub.  We all know about Andre Johnson, but look at Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter to get some looks as well as Ryan Moats to take some carries from Steve Slaton.  I still think the Colts will win, because they are the Colts and that’s what they do, for their players, its business as usual, play all of their normal guys and look for Garcon and Collie to make more of a difference this week.

Miami at New England- The Pats after a bye are unstoppable, but the ‘Fins have the Pats number.  We all know this is the matchup that started the “Wildcat” phenomenon, the the second matchup Bellichek stopped it completely.  With that said, you still have to play Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, they will get the ball early and often.  Keep this name in mind, Devon Bess, he may be a difference maker is this game as the Pats will look to stop Ted Ginn, Jr.  On the Pats side, play all of their receivers, and shy away from any of their RBs, as the Dolphins cornerbacks are young and Brady will be passing all day.  A few sleepers for the Pats, Sam Aiken, a third receiver who will be open because of Moss and Welker, and Chris Baker, TE, Watson has been banged up, this guy can catch the ball too.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay- Poor Tampa Bay, they have the Pack after they lost to Brett Favre last week.  I see no problem playing Rodgers, Driver, Jennings, and Grant and their Defense as Josh Freeman, the Bucs 1st round pick will be making his first start.  The only bright spot for the Bucs is that Charles Woodson is out for GB, they may have a long pass play, that’s about it, stay away from any player on the Bucs.

Kansas City at Jacksonville- Bad teams means ugly games.  On the Jax side, MJD is a must start, and even Garrard and Sims Walker are guys to consider starting against a bad team.  For KC, wow, this is tough because they have some decent receivers but they cannot catch the ball and they are one of the worst offenses in the league, play guys at your own risk.

Detroit at Seattle- This is what Seattle needs, a team like Detroit to come in and help jump start their offense.  The Seahawks let Edge go, so they must like what they have at RB, but I don’t, these guys are not Stephen Jackson, but of you have to, you know Julius Jones will get touches.  Look at John Carlson and Deion Branch to have decent games as well.  For Detroit, Kevin Smith is a must start as Seattle’s defense has injury problems.  Megatron (Calvin Johnson) is still a game time decision, so keep an eye on the reports.  If you have to pick someone up, look at Bryant Johnson, he will have increased targets if Megatron does not play.

Carolina at New Orleans- I still do not think that the Panthers have solved their offensive problems, but they realized that they have to run the ball, so look at De Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to get a lot of touches.  Do not count the original Steve Smith out, he makes things happen, keep him on your radar.  For the Saints, like the Colts, business as usual, I like all of their guys, Brees, Colston, Shockey, Thomas, and look at Bush to get more touches, they have been increasing each week.

San Diego at New York Giants- Two more teams that look great and then horrible, but I expect a shoot out and the Giants to win.  San Diego will throw the ball and Vincent Jackson is on fire, so look at Rivers and Gates to have big games too.  I am still not sold on their running game, but they are giving Tomlinson the ball, so he is a good play too, stay away from Sproles as his touches are going down. Manning will have a good game, but look for the Giants to run early and often, Bradshaw has been quiet, but I feel he will have a good game.  Their receivers have been good, but each week a new one steps up, Steve Smith is consistent, but Manningham and Nicks can be good plays as well in deep leagues.

Tennessee at San Francisco- Vince Young is back and the Titans have won, his stats are ugly, but the guy wins.  Chris Johnson is having a great season and should have another good game but do not expect a 200 yarder this week.  Nate Washington is healthy and coming along as well, keep an eye on him to see if VY looks at him more.  For San Fran, Frank Gore is back and running well, he is a safe play the rest of the year.  Michael Crabtree is for real and will eat up the Titans secondary.  Alex Smith and Vernon Davis are solid starts here too.

Dallas at Philadelphia- This should be a great game, an offensive game.  The Eagles have been putting McNabb in the shot gun more and it has paid off he is throwing better and more touchdowns.  Expect the Eagles speedy receivers to give the Dallas defense a hard time, Desean Jackson should continue to light up defenses.  Brian Westbrook should play this weekend, but look at the rookie, Lesean McCoy to steal some touches from him.  On the Cowboys side, I am not sold on Romo this game, the Eagles have stout defense and may great jumps in the passing lanes.  With that said, they have enough fire power to make this a great game.  Miles Austin will be held in check, but look for Jason Witten to finally have a good game, and Roy Williams is doing his best T.O. impression, he may do well also.  Don’t sleep on Marion Barber either.

Pittsburgh at Denver- Just like the Pats, the Steelers are great after a bye.  Denver is licking their wounds from another AFC North Team’s beat down last week in Baltimore, now they have the Steelers to deal with.  Expect the Steelers defense to pressure Orton and stop the Denver running game, in my opinion, only Brandon Marshall is a good start for Denver.  For the Steelers, Big Ben wants to be in the no huddle more, look for that this Monday, he has been great this year and is becoming a top fantasy QB.  With Ty Law expected to play corner back for the Broncos this week, that means their defense is banged up, look for the Steelers receivers to make a lot of plays, and look at Mike Wallace to have a deep pass in the play action.  Don’t worry about Hines Ward, he won’t be shut out this week.  Look for Mendenhall to carry the load on the ground, with Parker getting some touches.

Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and ask me questions about your lineup Sunday morning.

You can also email me at sportsguymike@gmail.com with fantasy questions and suggestions for my weekly blog!

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Week 9: Look out for…

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Benson 2.0: Even though the Ravens defense gives up only 87.6 yards per game, Benson just does not seem to care. Last time he faced these birds- 12o yards rushing (4.4 yards/ rush), 16 yards receiving, and a TD to go along with those monster stats. This time, he’s at home and his team is looking to make the playoffs. Expect similar stats.

Grant: Tampa Bay is winless, starting a rookie QB, and can’t stop the run. Being winless doesn’t play much into how Ryan plays, but having a starting QB on the opposing team can give him more opportunities than normal to run and score. The Bucs can’t stop the run either, making him an easy go-to decision on game day.

Jones-Drew: He’s playing KC (252.1 pass yards/ game [28th] and 131 rush yards/ game [26th]) Jones-Drew is the number one target for the pass and get numerous amount rushes per game. This could easily be his best game yet.

Hasselback: Through the air, Detroit has allowed  251.9 yards/ game, while Matt in his 5 games started, has thrown 9 TDs and 3 picks with 978 yards. They should be able to open up a run game, allowing for Matt to make passes and pass for TDs.

Warner: The Bears were obliterated by Palmer’s pass attack. Why shouldn’t Warner do the same? Boldin is not expected to play, but this may benefit him- a healthy Breaston is (not by too much) better than a beat up, mangled, Boldin. They will try to cover Fitzgerald, more than they did when Boldin was playing. When Boldin was playing, teams didn’t have to think much on Warner passing to him, especially on certain plays, so they knew they had to cover Fitzgerald. But, with Boldin out, the Bears will now really have to look for Warner going to Larry, easily opening Breaston on big plays. Feel free to play Warner.

Vincent Jackson: We are looking at the true New York Giant defense- WASH, DAL (at week 2), TB, KC, OAK  just can’t pass the ball- while PHI, ARI, and NO can. Rivers can pass and has people to throw to- Jackson, LT, Gates, and now Floyd. Rivers may not have a big game, but it should be solid, solid enough for Jackson to have a fantastic game. Plan on Jackson to stay big and have another great game.

DeSean Jackson: DAL has put things together since Miles Austin leading the receiving core, but preventing and then stopping a dynamic PHI offense from dominating the field is difficult. As we have seen, Jackson can rush and receive, making it harder for the opposing defense to know how to set up and how to stop him. Don’t worry about those 0,1, or 2 reception games, especially this week. Put him in your starting lineup and forget about him

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Ask Sports Guy Mike, Week 9 Questions Answered

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

With week 8 now in the books and some of the bye weeks have caught up to you and maybe you have lost some of your players due to injury, now it is time to assess your team and the damage.  I know I cannot keep giving the “bad matchup” excuse, but seriously, I play Brady in his 6 TD game, Philly when then scored TDs on defense and Chris Johnson when he has over 200 yards and a few scores.  A once promising comeback to my poor start has left me for dead.  But this isn’t about me, its about the GMs that are looking to me for fantasy football advice, so forget what you read above!

I did have a few questions from some followers of the blog (I would love to get more, email me at sportsguymike@gmail.com!)

Q:  If I am looking to add and drop players, what should I look for?

A: If you have read my blog in the past, you know I am a numbers guy, I work in sales and I am surrounded by numbers and projections.  So when I look at players to add or drop I look at what they have done weekly and break that down.  Look at someone who I have coveted all season as a sleeper, Mike Wallace (WR, Pitt) he is stats and targets have steadily increased and he even has a few rushes in the last few games.  Not a bad pickup as the Broncos had a rough week and the Steelers are coming off a by.  You can also look at big play ability.  There are a few guys that have the ability to create big plays with low touches.  The Chargers receiving corps have plenty of those guys, I know Vincent Jackson isn’t available, but look at Malcom Floyd, now that Chambers has left, he get more targets and he averages 22.8 yards per catch.  That is 2 points every time he catches the ball, not a bad average.  Lastly, injuries, they happen every week, Cooley, was another one that hurt everyone, don’t just look at his back up, look at guys that are red zone targets, Chris Baker (NE), Matt Spaeth, and look at Bo Scaife, now the VY is back, his targets should be way up.

Q:  When I set my lineups, should I look for RB or WR with my flex, or unbalanced lineup?

A: I have always been the guy that soaks up the RBs and plays them all the time with my flex or unbalanced lineup.  One of my leagues, the line up calls for 1 RB, 1 WR, and 2 RB/WR flex options.  I always play 3 RBs and 1 WR.  This season, it is not necessarily the best way using this strategy.  With some many teams using more than 2, and even sometimes 3 RBs, this can be tricky.  Even this year, the usual suspects of number 1 WRs are not producing like they once were.  Who would have thought that Larry Fitzgerald has 7 more fantasy points than Donald Driver, and 16 points less than Vincent Jackson?  Unless you have Peterson, Turner, or Forte, you must look at the depth chart before you play all of the RBs at flex spot.  This is the year of the WR in my opinion and they are now becoming they way to win games.

Email me at sportsguymike@gmail.com with any questions or suggestions on fantasy articles.

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Good Luck in week 9, more to come from Sports Guy Mike!

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Don’t Call It A Comeback! Week 8

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Like most of us that are addicted to Fantasy Football, we work with some of the guys in my league.  As a new blogger I really want to talk about the usuals, start/sit and sleepers, etc (I still do though).  My co-worker suggested that I write an article on how to make a late run.  We are both 2-4 (byes weeks, 9 team league) in the same league and even though we look great on paper, we have not caught good match ups.  These are a few things that you can do if you want to compete and make a run at the playoffs.

Waiver Wire

I have mentioned this before, but since there are so many bye weeks, you can pick up a gem to use the rest of the season.  Look at the add/drops and waiver wire, if you can afford to add a player on a bye to block someone else for picking them up, go for it.  At this point, the guys on the bench are not winning you games.  Teams that are doing well and need to add something for a bye week may end up dropping something valuable.  For example, I dropped Marshawn Lynch last week because I have RB depth, but needed a Defense.  He was scooped up right away, what I didn’t notice is that he has some favorable match ups moving forward.  I got my defense, but lost a starting RB.

Don’t Jump at the One Hit Wonders!

OK we all realize that Miles Austin is for real.  But for the most part, these guys that have unbelievable games in one week that are available is because they probably won’t do it again.  You have to look at the real numbers, how many people picked up Brandon Stokely after week 1?  He scored a TD, a crazy catch that bounced off Brandon Marshall’s pads.  Let your competitors jump on those guys and concentrate on the guys who have been there before.

Analyze The Match Ups and Reports

I know I have said go with your gut and do not analyze to much, when you are 2-5, 2-4, etc, the gut just isn’t working.  Take a look at each team and who they are playing, every crucial thing at this point can help.  What are the conditions going to be, windy, sunny, rainy, snowy, this all can make a difference, unless you are the Patriots (I lost that week because of Brady, still VERY bitter).  Look at each teams defense and see what type of yardage they let up, for example, the Titans are real good against the run, but horrible against the pass, a bunch of their DBs are hurt (just ask the Pats, why do I keep bringing it up?).

Look at the Injury Report

Your team may have a bad record, but the player that plays on the “real” team may not be bad.  If the player is a little banged up, keep an eye on the injury report that come out on Wed and look at the updates on practice through the week.  This could be crucial as a player that is questionable could change at game time.  Also if the team is rolling and they are deep at that position, they may sit the guy and that could impact your lineup last minute.  Last year with “Earth, Wind, and Fire” of the Giants last year, Jacobs was sat at the last minute and it hurt me in a crucial game, they sat him last minute because they had to good RBs behind him.

Try those things and see what happens.  I truely believe that these can help, and I have used these tips in my own league.  I once had 7 RBs on my roster, because if someone dropped a good player to cover a Kicker or Def, I simply picked them up and put them on my bench and now they are a crucial part of my line-up (someone dropped Ricky Williams and Frank Gore!).

Good Luck this week, more to come.  Please email any comments or suggestions to sportsguymike@gmail.com

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Fantasy Football Week 8: Running Backs

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Take a look and feel free to tell me what you think. Worthy running backs are listed by team.

Arizona: Hightower may have a harder time than Wells, simply because Tim tends to get the screen pass while, after last week’s performance, Wells will see slight upgrade in attempts. Wells is still not starting,  so consider him a high No. 3 while Hightower, with the potential to have good rush and receiving yards, a No. 2.

Atlanta:  The Saints are tough on the run (8th in the league). Turner is only posting a 3.41 yards per carry. Not a good match up. Atlanta doesn’t perform a scary wildcat like the Dolphins do. Atlanta will get down to the red zone though, and there, Turner will have the opportunity to score touchdowns.  Not a No. 1 option this week, but because of his ability to score the touchdowns, he is a No. 2.

Baltimore: Ray Rice is the only one to even consider putting in your lineup on a weekly basis, but this week is not a good one vs the run (3rd in the league). Rices receiving yards can also be limited to the number 8 ranked defense in the league. Consider him a mid to low No. 2

Buffalo: Lynch is becoming his solid self once again, and can prove his solidness against the Texans. Consider him a high No. 2.

Carolina: Williams will have a very limited day rushing against ARI who are the number one run stoppers in the league. If he gets short passes, however, he could be a better option, but at Delhomme is in charge of the offense and will have very few of those opportunities. This all makes him a low No. 2.

Chicago: It SHOULD be a good day for Forte against the second to last run defense. He should be put in the lineup at the No. 1 position.

Cincinnati: Benson is on a bye.

Cleveland: Lewis and Harrison should not be considered unless in desperate need of a RB (Lewis being of better value).

Dallas: Barber is a tough option vs Sea who is allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game. However, withthe opening of the passing game, both their numbers should see an increase. Barber is a No.2 and Jones is a No. 3. Choice, because of his explosiveness, is a low No. 3.

Denver: Against a tough BAL run defense, both Buckhalter and Moreno are only low No. 3’s.

Detroit: Kevin Smith can be a high No. 2 vs STL, especially after his bye

Green Bay: Grant, as you may know by now, is play MIN in GB. MIN is ranked 10th in the league in stopping the run, but GB will do anything to win this one, so put Grant as a high No. 2.

Houston: Slaton. Start him. The Bills just can’t stop the run.

Indianapolis: Addai will have more carries with Browns’ injury and should be a safe start vs SF due to Peyton’s ability to open the running game through the pass.

Jacksonville: MJD, with his mixes of rushes and receptions, should have a fantastic game day vs TEN (defense is 9th in the run and last in the pass). Easily a No. 1 with his play catching ability.

Kansas City: On a bye.

Miami: The wildcat dominated the Jets when they played just a few weeks ago and there is no reason to think they can stop it now. Brown and Williams should be low No. 1’s.

Minnesota:  Peterson can run over any defense. Don’t worry on starting him, especially in this meaningful game at GB. He is a No. 1.

New England: On a bye.

New Orleans: Thomas and Bells are splitting carries, decreasing their values tremendously. While they are both are No. 3 against ATL, Bush is a low No. 2.

New York Giants: Jacobs is healthy, Bradshaw is not. Jacobs is closer to a low No. 2 than anything against in all-around monster PHI defense. Don’t look to Bradshaw too much, if at all with his injury.

New York Jets: Thomas, and now Greene, are facing a very mighty MIA defense in the rush. Thomas has much more value than Greene, and should be considered a high No. 2, with Greene a low No. 3.

Oakland: Fargas is your best value for OAK running backs against SD. He should be a No. 3.

Philadelphia: Keep an eye on the injury on Westbrook, if healthy, he should be a No. 2. McCoy, if given the start may have the same value. On updates of Brain’s injury, as his playing time decreases, McCoy’s will rise.

Pittsburg: On a bye.

San Diego: Tomlinson should be a No. 1 against OAK. Sproles a high No. 2.

San Francisco: Gore didn’t produce last week only because he was coming off of injury. A match up against IND shouldn’t help much though, but if QB Smith performs how he did late last week, he should be given the opportunity to succeed. He should be a No 2.

Seattle: Don’t take too much consideration in any Seahawk running back, all are low No. 3’s (Jones) to pretty much not start-able

St. Louis: Steven Jackson is a must start. He will rack up yards receiving and rushing, and I project he will get his first smell of the end zone this season. He is the No. 1 of No. 1’s.

Tampa Bay: On a bye.

Tennessee: Chris Johnson should easily be able to rack up yards and scores on long runs. White may be able to reclaim himself this game, and probably for this game one. Johnson- No.1, White- low No. 2.

Washington: On a bye.

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Get yourself invited to the Dance!

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Lets look ahead. Every league has a team or two that is 5-2 or 6-1 at this point. I’m sure those teams have three solid running backs and four above average wide outs, maybe even 2 of the top 10-12 quarterbacks. There you are, sitting at 3-4 or 4-3, right on the verge of the playoff picture but maybe need to make a move to get you over the top.

Here is a list of guys who you might be able to pick up via trade. These guys could be sitting on their teams bench because they made a few good free agent pick ups and now are sitting on the pine. Not only are these guys pretty decent but their schedules are pretty good to. All you want as a fantasy owner is to be invited to the dance, the dance being the playoffs. Check out these guys and their schedules and maybe you have enough on your team to get them.

Each of the guys I’ve mentioned, I have broken their match-ups down from week 12 through week 16.

Beanie Wells – The Cardinals have a soft schedule from week 12 on, one of there final five games are against a “tough” defense.

Week 12 Beanie plays at Tennessee, whose run D isn’t all that bad, but by then Tennessee might have just one win and Zona will need wins so they will bring there A game to the east coast. I think we can finally put to rest the stat about Arizona can’t win on the east coast too. Home vs. Minnesota week 13 is a tough match up, even still the Vikings run D isn’t a top 3 or 4 like they have been the last two years. Week 14, huge game at San Fran, this game will be for the division most likely, but teams have run on them this year. See Slaton last week and Turner three weeks ago. Week 15 and 16 the Cardinals have the softest possible schedule for the fantasy playoffs, at Detroit and then home vs. St. Louis. The Rams are 26th in the league against the run and Detroit is 20th against the run. Hightower’s days as the starter appear to be numbered if Wells can hold onto the ball.

A few years back when Clinton Portis was a rookie in Denver, he watched and got limited reps until about half way through that season. His final eight games, Portis ran for over 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. Wells is more than capable of getting those numbers the second half of this season. Id trade Kevin Smith or Julius Jones to get Beanie.

Ricky Williams – Miami is a run first team, no shock there, but this year Miami has November and December games in cold weather climates. What do you do in the cold, you run the ball.

Week 12, Miami travels up north to play Buffalo. Buffalo is last in the league against the run. Doesn’t take a genius to figure it out, Ricky is a great start vs. Buffalo. The following week Miami again travels up North to play New England. The Pats D got younger and is playing very well. New England has struggled vs. the Wild Cat, not a bad option there either. Week 14, they host Jacksonville, a run D that is in the middle of the pack. By then Miami will be playing for a wild card spot and Jacksonville will be playing out the string. Come fantasy playoff time Ricky plays Tennessee and Houston weeks 15 and 16. One team will be counting down the days until the off season, Houston might be playing for something, but there D is hot and cold. Ricky should be someone you should target in a trade and expect big things from down the stretch. Id trade Devin Hester, Calvin Johnson or LT to get Ricky.

Greg Jennings – I am sure that Jennings owners are not happy that the aging Donald Driver is still the #1 in GB, and that Jennings numbers have taken a huge hit this season. On paper Jennings has some tough match ups, but the Ravens, Bears and Steelers are not what they once were. Ravens pass D is very suspect at best. Bears D just let up 5 td’s to Cincy, Matt Ryan moved the ball on them and so didn’t GB in week 1. The Steelers should be better down the stretch, but Favre and some inexperienced wide outs put up decent numbers on Pitt, and so didn’t Dante Culpepper too.

Jennings plays at Detroit week 12, then plays Baltimore, at Chicago, at Pitt, and then host Seattle week 16. Again, it looks like a hard schedule, but if you have someone like Pierre Thomas or Marion Barber that you can deal away, Jennings should increase production in November and December.

Michael Crabtree – go get him now. In my previous blog I told you that I was real high on Alex Smith. He finally did what he should have done right out of college, watch and learn. Smith is smarter and will work well with Crabtree in the following weeks to come. The San Fran O is defiantly a run first O. Once teams stack the box with 8 then expect Crabtree to get his. In week 12 Jacksonville comes out west, and they didn’t do so hot when the came out to play in Seattle a few weeks back. Week 13 they travel to Qwest Field and a huge NFC West match up, teams have had success throwing the ball. Their pass D looks better than it really is because of the shut outs of Jacksonville and St. Louis. Week 14 the 9ers then travel to Arizona in another game that has shoot out written all over it, Arizona pass D ranks 28th in the league. Week 15 they play the Eagles in another big game with playoff implications, Philly is always prone to give up the long the ball with all the blitzing they do, could be a sneaky play here. Week 16 San Fran has the Rams, they don’t want to play anymore. Needless to say, the 9ers are coached well and will be prepared to play hard to finish out their season. Crabtree will figure to be a huge part of what they are trying to do. I would trade Hightower or T.O. to get Crabtree.

I hope you all look good and hard at making a move to get yourself invited to the dance. No one wants to miss the prom.

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