Put ‘um in your lineup

• Dallas Clark – No doubt he and every other offensive player will produce against STL. Don’t even hesitate on it.
• Gates- Phillips should have no problem throwing his way against KC
• Witten- slight edge over Gonzo only because at the lack at WR
• Gonzalez- very favorable match up at DAL
• Cooley- Besides WR Moss, no one else is thrown too much, but gets enough targets to make plays

Nice games

• Daniels- Andre will surely be covered (which won’t stop him) leaving Owen open for some passes
• Davis- When Crabtree hits the field, Davis will be allowed to roam the field
• Shockey- Brees is his QB, and is always a threat to catch a TD
• Olsen- CIN has allowed lots of passing yards. Greg can easily put up big numbers
• Sean Ryan (KC) – SD defense, with Cromardie injured, can give up big plays. Ryan has been unheard of this season, but has 2 TDs. If you’re in need, take a try on him
• Shiancoe- Troy is going to play for PIT, but Favre likes TEs and has been hitting him for TDs the past few weeks
• Winslow- I think I see Johnson favoring Kellen as his prime target, but NE isn’t a very forgiving defense

Start ‘um as they’re ranked

• Miller (PIT)
• Celek
• Miller (OAK)
• Finley
• McMichael
• Watson- wasn’t used much against the blowout game vs TEN, doesn’t look like that will change
• Boss
• Keller

Byes

Heap, Heller, Carleson, Crumpler/Scaife, Scheffler

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So let’s just jump head long into the deep end of the pool? Why am I gonna bore you with I’m in such and such a team league with such and such of rules and all that minutia that really doesn’t matter.

I’ve been texting my Co-GM. Now, if you don’t have a league where you have a Co-GM give it a shot. Best thing I’ve ever done. Me and my buddy work crap hours and don’t get to hang out a lot it gives us something to stay in touch with and it allows us to drive our significant others completely and utterly insane to the point that they will actually leave us alone with some cold ones and go do something else. Plus my Co-GM comes with some fringe benefits aside from being one of my best friends in the entire world. He may or may not work for a certain worldwide leader… So yeah we have a ton of stats at our disposal. Ones that most people wouldn’t even think of. We use it to supplement our general fantasy habits and actually used it to win a title and a decent sum of money ummm I mean pride and kudos. Yes, pride and kudos. All this makes what he texted to me next even more curious:

MAYBE WE SHOULD JUST TAKE THE ZERO
What??? On what planet is this ever a good idea? The problem we were dealing with is that our TE John Carlson is on his bye, our Defense the Broncos were on their bye and we didn’t particularly care to cut either of them. Plus the pickings on the Defense and TE pile in a very deep league were slim. We worried about ANY member of our roster that we carefully construct getting pecked off the scrap heap come waiver time. So in my Co-GMs defense this may have been a moment of clarity. Now, we’re not holding on to many gems but still guys who you’re holding out hope can put up some points. One of these guys was Jerome Harrison. Having the flu and for some reason being stashed behind an ineffective Jamal Lewis made him the first casualty. We weren’t worried about Harrison getting taken. He’s a Cleveland Brown and that city doesn’t export fantasy points, just crippling depression.

Harrison… GONE. New Defense for the Week? CIRCLE THE WAGONS! Let’s go Buffalo! The Bills have an underrated D. Now that the offense isn’t playing a silly hurry up offense they’re not ready or equipped for maybe the defense can stay off the field plus let’s be serious Jake Delhomme is good for a pick or ten. (I mean seriously when your fans are making this video, you’re in trouble.) We’re hoping that the Panthers don’t remember how to run the ball incredibly successfully and just continue their insanity and try and heave it down the field to an angry Steve Smith 1.0 (yeah we all know who I stole that from.).

That leaves us the fact of losing Carlson or a very promising Andre Caldwell. Do we take the zero? Do we cut Carlson and hope to grab him on waivers the next week? Or do we do the unfathomable and take the freakin zero!? These are stressful decisions that us fantasy geeks (and I use the term lovingly) deal with that people just don’t understand. This has legitimately consumed hours of my life this week. In fact as I write this I have my fantasy league window open with Ben Watson to be added and just waiting for my Co-GM to get back to me with who to drop because I’ve decided no matter what way shape or form I will not take the zero. And neither should you. Do you know why? Because this is FANTASY football. Not reality.

We take the zero in our every day life. The zero in the nookie department from our wives, girlfriends, strangers that we pick up in the bar that just actually need a place to crash and have no intention at all of hooking up with us. The zero from our bosses and co workers who give us no respect, bust our chops, look over our shoulders and tell higher ups that we’ve been spending hours staring at a Yahoo! Fantasy Football screen and quickly clicking on to a spread sheet when any one looks. I for one Fantasy Brethren am tired of taking the zero on a daily basis and I will be DAMNED if I’ll take the zero in my FANTASY world where I own a team named after a choice between two songs on Satellite Radio (2 Joints Or One Week) on a road trip to Boston.
So to you I say I’m Patrick Hackett, friends call me Hackett and I’m not taking the zero AND NEITHER SHOULD YOU!

Feedback appreciated.

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Week 7 Must Starts and Sleepers

By: Sportsguymike

I am a numbers guy, I always have been.  In my real life, I am in sales, numbers, goals, and projections are around me all day.  When I look at match-ups, I do not always look at the numbers as other fantasy guys do.  For example, I have no idea what defense is bad against the tight end position, I just know, if have a good tight end; he should get the job done.  Here are my week 7 must starts that you may not think of…..

1. Donald Driver- Green Bay- People laughed when I drafted him, but he has averaged double digit points (based on ESPN) for the season.  Rodgers clearly has him locked in his sights and Driver is still making great catches.  If you have him, he is clearly a player that produces.
2. Zach Miller- Oakland- Yes, really a player from the Raiders makes a positive list in fantasy!  He is the only player that JaMarcus Russell is consistently getting the ball to, and Miller has the ability to make plays after the catch.  He was very good at Arizona State, but was drafted by Oakland; he is finally getting an opportunity to produce.
3. Wes Welker- New England- A must start almost every week, but now that he is 100% and the Pats only have two legit receivers, his targets will increase and that is great for PPR leagues.  He always gets catches and makes good on them, but now the TDs are coming.
4. Cedric Benson- Cincinnati- Again, a must start in most leagues, but if you have three good backs and you are looking for a reason to start or sit someone, do not sit Benson.  This former “bust” has found a new home in Cincy.  He also was cut by the Bears who drafted him in the first round after a few “boating incidents.” He will be running with a purpose this week and the Bears have a much banged up defense that just lost Pisa Tinoisamoa for the season.
5. Tashard Choice- Dallas- during Jerry Jones’ radio show, yes he has one, he said they need to get Choice more involved in the offense.  I have been a fan of Marion Barber since he was at Minnesota, but I am not sold on him as an every down back.  Felix Jones is still banged up and remember, what Jerry wants, Jerry gets!

Now for some fantasy sleepers…..

1. Mike Wallace- WR- Pittsburgh- Mike Tomlin has given up on Limas Sweed and Mike Wallace has stepped in very nicely as the Steelers number 3 receiver.  Pittsburgh is now a passing team and even with Ward, Holmes, and Heath Miller, Wallace is getting targets and they are calling plays for him.  He is a speedster, and has the ability for the long ball and they have added rushing plays to get him in the open field.  He has one 100+ yard game already; he is a great sleeper in deep leagues.
2. Andre Caldwell- WR- Cincinnati- He is breaking out of his “sleeper” role and becoming a legit WR with Chris Henry’s lack of production.  This former Florida Gator is becoming a confident target of Carson Palmer’s.  He has made some key plays and big catches in the clutch to help the Bengals fast start.
3. Shonn Greene- RB- New York Jets- He is healthy and they want to get him the ball, but with Leon Washing and Thomas Jones’ monster games last week, it was tough.  Jones will not have games like that again, look for Greene to get some carries and take away touches if he produces.
4. Sam Aiken- WR- Patriots- With Joey Galloway going Bye Bye (he may sign with the Ravens, ssshhh) and Julian Edelman sidelined with a broke arm, this special teams standout will have targets coming his way.  The Pats are playing the Bucs, if you have any Patriot, play them.
5. Ahman Green- RB- Packers- Not a real “sleeper” by definition, but since he has resigned with the Packers, and he is 47 yards from tying the all time Packers rushing record, look for him to get a decent amount of touches.  According to him, he is healthy and focused on football, he was very productive in his day in Green Bay, he will be a solid backup for Ryan Grant.

There you have it folks, please play your lineups wisely, and what I say may not always be the right thing!  Good Luck!

Follow me on twitter www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and send me any questions or suggestions to write about!

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Week Seven, The Crossroads

It is now week 7 and you are starting to get a sense of where you are at in your fantasy football league.  For me, it is from one extreme to another.  I am in two leagues, one a 16 team league (the largest I’ve been involved in) and a 9 team league.  I am 5-1 in my 16 team league and 1-4 (early bye due to 9 teams) in my 9 team league.  Seems odd huh? My draft position was completely different in each draft as well as which one was scheduled first.

In my 9 team league, I lost in the Super Bowl (damn injury report on Brandon Jacobs, I’m not bitter) and had the 7^th position in the draft.  Being the self proclaimed “draft guru” that I am, I had a strategy, no matter who was available, I wanted a top tier play at RB, WR, and QB and had my sights set on a top tier RB as my first pick.  I did not get who I wanted, and did not change my strategy during the draft and I am 1-4.

In my 16 team league my draft status was simple, like every war room in the NFL draft; I simply took the best player that was available, regardless of the position.  I had the second pick of the draft, one of the worst spots to be in and I had never been in a league with this many teams and I knew it would be tough.  My strategy paid off great, I am 5-1 and if (ya, I know, if doesn’t= win) Frank Gore does not get hurt against the Vikings; I could be 6-0.  Moral of the story, draft position is not a guarantee that you will win, it is who you draft and when.

I could go on and on about what I drafted and why it did or did not work out, but at this stage in the season, if you have records like mine, here are some things you can look at to improve, or spoil someone else’s season (if I don’t win, I don’t want anyone else to win!).

Do not worry about projections!  Play your best matchups!

All the projections are is to add another way of you second guessing yourself into a bad decision.  Do not look at the numbers, look at the matchups.  Two weeks ago at 12:55 pm I benched Thomas Jones and played Ahmad Bradshaw, even though his “projection” was lower, and he had 29 pts and helped me win my first game.  You should not go by the projections, the good players will produce and decent players against favorable matchups, will be fine.  ESPN, had an article that vaguely describes how they get their predictions, you know what I took out of it?  It’s guessing on who may be better in a match up.

Be open to shuffling the “roster”

If a player isn’t playing well in real life, the coach takes him out.  We draft 16 plus players, try them out.  I played Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor against the Rams, because of the matchup and it paid off, Taylor picked up yards and a TD in garbage time.

Look at the Waiver Wire

Who cares if you have elite receivers, this is a what have you done for me lately league, so if someone is out there and he is hot, don’t be afraid to pick him up.  I am not telling you to drop Fitzgerald for Miles Austin, but you can drop an extra kicker, defense (assuming the have had byes) and stock up for the long run, if you do not try to pick up the player someone else will.  Side note- in my 9 team league I have 7 RBs, yeah 7, and all the other teams want them, you snooze, you lose.

Good Luck this week, I know I need some myself!

You can follow me here and on twitter at www.twitter.com/sportsguymike

Please feel free to contact me with any questions on sports or suggestions for articles!

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Put ‘um in your lineup

• Wayne - at STL. ‘ Nuff said
• Vincent Jackson- Rivers should easily be able to get the ball to him against KC
• Jennings- Looking to perform to old was vs CLE should come easily
• Smith (NYG)- ARI can just NOT stop the pass
• Homles/Ward- MIN can run stop but has trouble pass stopping
• Moss/Welker- another terrible defense for Brady and boys to terrorize
• Colston- He’s unstoppable with Brees
• Knox- CIN just got beaten up by Schaub, and Cutler is just a notch above him
• Andre- Simply an unbelievable player

Nice games

• Edwards- IF Sanchez decides not to throw 5 picks today he Edwards should be able to get some good looks
• Sidney Rice- Appears to be the target of choice, and with Percy coming back it should allow for him to be more open
• Garcon Collie- Him AND Collie can easily score with Peyton behind the helm
• White- He’s back! and against DAL
• Austin- now starting opposite of Williams (who doesn’t appear to targeted) and it is uncertain if he’ll play
• OchoCinco- can get some nice yards vs CHI
• Driver- against CLE
• D. Jackson- tough matchup with WAS, but may be able to break away from that
• Fitz- Brees bulldozed the NYG defense, but can Warner do the same?

Play ‘um as ranked

• Boldin
• Bowe
• Ginn
• Manningham
• Hester
• Moss
• Henderson
• Meacham

Keep an eye on

Burton, Massaquio, Harvin, Wallace, Roy Williams,  Clowney, CRABTREE, Maclin, Smith (CAR) [Hes gone down this far, but watch him, he made a statement and wants the ball], Breaston, and Hicks

Byes

Burleson, Housh, Sims-Walker, Holt, Clayton, Mason, N. Washington, C. Johnson, Marshall

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Put ‘um in your lineup:

• DeAngelo Williams- He’ll have another great game vs the WORST rush defense in Buffalo
• Ryan Grant-  Also against the 3rd worst defense in CLE
• T. Jones/Washington- Jones was untouchable in BUF and Washington also had a great game. But lean more towards Jones than Washington
• Gore- IF he is back and he starts with a good amount of touches, and if Hill can get the ball to his new target in Crabtree, he can have a fantastic day, and without Crabtree, he can still have a fantastic game.
• Adrian Peterson- You just cant bench him BUT lookout for the ankle. He is facing a tough PIT defense and his ankle is sore. If all is good, he is AP, so start him.

Nice game:

• Addai/Brown at St. Louis- Not great games only because the two are too tough to call and very even in my view. But against St. Louis with Peyton should allow them to post quality numbers.
• Westbrook- Very shaky but WASH doesn’t have nice numbers in the defensive rushing department
• Maroney- Looks like he getting the touches he needs to produce, and TB is a very favorable matchup. Just like last week when Brady went to the air, they soon went to the ground and ran.
• Brown/Williams- Wildcat could damage the NO defense
• Benson- solid this season, but is playing a very good CHI defense and may have some problems
• Sproles Tomlinson-  visting KC
• Mendenhall

Use ‘um as they’re ranked:

• Barber
• Adrian Peterson- You just cant bench him BUT lookout for the ankle. He is facing a tough PIT defense and his ankle is sore. If all is good, he is AP, so start him.
• Forte
• Turner- DAL doesn’t allow too many rushing TDs- only two so far
• Steven Jackson- not a single TD yet
• Fred Jackson
• Stewert
• Portis- being listed as probable but banged up and playing PHI is not a good combo
• Thomas
• Cadillac
• Slaton- 49ers after a bye

Try to avoid:

Bradshaw/Jacobs, Parker/Medenhall, Lewis, OAK RBs,

Byes:

Rice/McGahee,  Smith , Moreno/Buckhalter, MJD, Johnson,  J.Jones

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Put ‘um in your lineup

• Peyton Manning at a porous St. Louis defense-  look at what Garrard put up last week
• Drew Brees at Miami. Ripping apart the NYG defense makes him sure fire.
• Tom Brady at TB which, also, has problems with their defense like STL
• Rivers at KC. Don’t let Campbell allow you to think KC defense is good- remember Romo?
• McNabb at WASH on MNF shouldn’t be a problem. Though a huge upset at OAK  was obviously a disappointment. He’ll have to go through the air too.
• E. Manning at the 31st ranked passing defense ARI- keep an eye on his boo-boo though

Nice games also

• Cutler at CIN. Despite CIN winning ways, they’re passing defense is 28th
• Ryan at DAL. Passing defense also poor at 27^th in the league.
• Rogers at CLE who is allowing 242 yards per game.
• Big Ben- leader in passing yards, and vs a team that can’t stop the pass as well as the run

What you really want

• P. Manning: 425 yards, 4 tds, 1 int.
• Brees: 415 yards 3 tds
• Brady: 390 yards, 3 tds
• Rivers: 368, 2 tds
• McNabb:  350 2 tds, int
• Eli: 330, 2 tds, int
• Cutler: 325, 2 tds, 2 int
• Ryan: 315, 2 tds
• Rogers: 300, 2 tds, int

Play ‘um how they’re ranked

• Schaub
• Warner (very unsure of the NYG pass defense at this point)
• Palmer
• Romo
• Hill ( Carbtree could help, so he could move up)
• Cassel
• Favre
• Big Ben
• Henne ( wildcat could get to the Saints)
• Sanchez

Not who ya’ want to play

Johnson, Bulger, Anderson, Campbell, Russel,  Edwards (or FitzPatrick),  Delhomme (if he could ever hit Smith!!)

Byes

• Orton, Flacco,  Culpepper/Stafford , Garrard, Hasselbeck, Collins/VY

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This week I am your host for the Fantasy Football Roundtable. As always, we bring you the sleepers and busts of the week in an effort to help you maximize your points for the week. As always, go and visit their sites to check out all of the goods they have to offer you and your fantasy squad. Feel free to leave comments here, on their sites, and everywhere you can. Good luck in week four.

Sleepers:
Johnny Knox, Chicago Bears: Lots of fantasy owners were on the fence last week about Knox and while he put up a touchdown, that was his only catch of the game and it was for all of seven yards. However, this week the Bears take on the Lions and while Detroit may have gotten in the win column last week (finally) the victory party is going to come to an end this week. Jay Cutler finally looks settled in the offense and Knox will be a prime target on Sunday.

Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers: When Frank Gore went down last Sunday, many of you probably cringed. However, after the initial shock I was able to breathe easy because I made sure to invest in Glen Coffee if I had Gore in a league. He may have looked anything but good on Sunday with 25 carries for only 54 yards, but he was also facing Minnesota’s front line. Coffee led the league in rushing yards in the preseason with 230 and being in practice with the first unit all week before facing St. Louis which is ranked 27th in rush defense can only mean good things. Plug him in if you’re a Gore owner.

Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars: Walker has led the Jaguars in receiving yards the past two weeks which is enough to sell most people, but what’s even more important is that he is facing Tennessee this week. While Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin are supposed to be the leaders of a stout Titans’ defense, Tennessee’s pass defense is ranked 29th overall right now which means big things for the 6’2, 214 pound receiver. Expect Sims-Walker to lead the team in receiving again as he becomes David Garrard’s new favorite target.

Busts:
Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints:  Shockey has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners so far this year, especially if he was drafted as a backup. He has scored two touchdowns already and has been good for 40-50 yards per game. The times will be a little tougher this week for Shockey though as faces the Jets at home on Sunday. New York has not allowed a tight end to score on them yet this season which doesn’t bode well for Shockey. On top of that, Rex Ryan will be sending all kinds of blitzes to knock Drew Brees out of rhythm (just like he did to Tom Brady) which will make the pickins slim for all Saints receivers.

Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills: I know we’re supposed to keep this to one player, but let’s face it, no one knows who will be starting in Buffalo this week. If you have been riding the Jackson train for the first three weeks as he tallied the sixth highest yardage total among all backs, you are in for a let down when he starts to split the carries. If you drafted Marshawn Lynch and have been eagerly awaiting his return, well don’t expect too much because Jackson blew away expectations when given the opportunity. This is going to be one of the messiest RBBC situations in the league for a couple weeks until everything is sorted out so stay away from it, especially this week.

TJ Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: Houshmandzadeh has been less than adequate during his short time in Seattle and the road won’t get any easier this week. Housh’s season high in receiving yards is 62 and that was with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck slinging him the ball. Enter Seneca Wallace and Houshmandzadeh gained only 35 yards last week and also lost a fumble, basically negating any points he may have put up for your fantasy squad. Hasselbeck could very likely be out again this coming week when Seattle heads to Indianapolis which doesn’t bode well for Houshmandzadeh seeing as the Colts defense is holding opposing quarterbacks to a meager 66.7 rating. Don’t expect Wallace to buck that trend.

Quarterbacks – Bryan Fontaine, RookieBlitz.com

Sleeper: QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
There really isn’t a better way to say it; Cleveland’s defense has been awful.  They have been shredded week after week, and even the run-orientated Ravens took them to task for 342 yards passing in Week 3.  Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco are licking their chops for this juicy Week 4 matchup against the hapless Browns.  Remember the 51-45 barnburner of a game in Week 2 of the 2007 season?  The Bengals could do it again but without any chance that the Browns offense could keep pace this time around.  I’d consider Palmer a Top 5 option this week at quarterback and you definitely want to get him in your lineup.  If not for the Immaculate Deflection game against the Broncos Week 1, the Bengals would be 3-0 and the talk of the league.  After putting up a dominating display this week, Carson Palmer and the Bengals will convince everyone that their high flying offense of old is back.

Bust: QB Brett Favre – Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre has been following the Vikings script so far and has looked more like a game manager than the gunslinger of old.  Favre got everyone talking with his last second heroics versus San Francisco last week and you might have an inkling to want to stick #4 in your lineup this week for old times sake.  Favre’s had this game circled on his calendar all offseason, and he’ll be looking to stick it to Packers General Manager Ted Thompson for not welcoming him back with open arms last summer.   Thompson’s Packers will be the ones to laugh last, because the Vikings best chance to win is to ride Adrian Peterson into the ground and not to let Favre freelance for his own selfish reasons.  I could easily see Favre with 3 interceptions in this contest trying to do more than he should; for a good example queue up some late season Jets games from 2008.  Don’t buy into the hype of Favre finally getting his redemption chance at the Packers, he’s not the Favre of old and should be left on your bench this week.

Running Backs – Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com

Sleeper: Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins
With Clinton Portis suffering form a number of injuries, Betts and the Redskins face a soft Tampa Bay rush defense this Sunday. The Bucs have given up 187.3 yards per game on the ground, which is the second-worst in the NFL behind Houston. Since Portis is dealing with calf issues and ankle spurs, expect Betts to be more active in the running game. It seems everyone is beating up on the Bucs and despite their own troubles; Washington should not have a problem against this unit. Betts makes a good emergency play should you have bye week runners, hurt runners, or both.

Bust: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams
Last Sunday, the Niners held Adrian Peterson to a mortal 85 rushing yards, and if they do that to AP, expect the same containment on Steven Jackson. The Niners should annihilate this lousy team, which is now forced to play Kyle Boller in place of an injured Marc Bulger. Can you say eight in the box? Boller even losses Laurent Robinson, who is out for the year with a fractured leg, so this could be another goose-egg game for the Rams’ “O.” Jackson has complied some good yardage this season, but hasn’t scored yet, and I doubt he will against the leagues 4th stingiest rush defense.

Wide Receivers – Matt Schauf, RapidDraft.com

Sleeper: Devin Hester, Chicago Bears
Sure, I might not be stepping out on too shaky a limb by talking up a receiver to start against the Lions, but would you look at Hester as a top 10 fantasy wideout? That’s the kind of potential he has this week against Detroit. Check out what other speedy, big-play receivers have done to the Lions: Week 1 – Devery Henderson led the Saints with five catches and 103 yards, including a 58-yard touchdown (and the Saints hit on another scoring pass of 39 yards); Week 3 – Santana Moss led Washington with 10 receptions for 178 yards, including a 57-yard touchdown and two other catches of more than 20 yards. Neither Bernard Berrian nor Percy Harvin blew up in Week 2, but they did each catch at least five passes. Add to that the fact that Hester has gotten three more looks than any other Bear over the past two weeks and you have a high-upside receiver who’s also relatively safe to start. Sign me up.

Bust: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
It’s quickly becoming a theme that the starting X receiver (left side of the formation) against the Jets faces fantasy devaluation because of a matchup with corner Darrelle Revis. There are two good reasons for that: Randy Moss, who had four catches for 24 yards against the Jets in Week 2, and Andre Johnson, with the same number of grabs for 35 yards in the opener. Moss, of course, hauled in 22 passes in his two other outings this season. Johnson may have matched his lowly four receptions against Jacksonville last Sunday, but he also gained 51 more yards against the Jaguars. Colston has already posted a couple of meager (in relation to his ability and situation) catch totals, with three and four in weeks 1 and 3, respectively. A third appears likely this week.

Tight Ends – Jim Day, FantasyFootballWhiz.com

Sleeper: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders
Yes I know, some teams have RBs that throw better than Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell, but Houston’s defense can be beat by a decent TE, as shown in week 1 when Dustin Keller torched them for 94 yards. I think Oakland starts the game rushing against the worst rushing defense in the league, and then play action passes will come into play. I look for Miller to perform more like he did in week 1, then in weeks 2 and 3. I’m looking for 5-6 receptions for about 80 yards and maybe, just maybe, Russell remembers how to throw a touchdown pass.

Bust: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
It was very hard to find a dud TE for this week, at least not one who has done anything this year. So I went digging through the prospects and came up with Miller as one I don’t think will have a very good week.  Even though he is going against a San Diego defense that is not usually known for their ability to stop Tight Ends, I think they step it up this week and try to take Miller out of the Pittsburgh game plan. Plus I’m looking for Pittsburgh to try to build on the rushing momentum they had in week 3 and feed Willie Parker and even to try and get Santonio Holmes involved early to overcome his poor performance in week 3.

Defenses – Chet Gresham, Razzball

Sleeper: Cincinnati Bengals
They lead the league with 10 sacks and face Derek Anderson.  Yes the same Derek Anderson who threw 3 interceptions in the second half last weekend and who barely completed 50 percent of his passes last year with only 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. If they can pressure him like they have other teams this year they should have some opportunities for turnovers.

Bust: Baltimore Ravens
There have been a lot of bust defenses this year that we thought would be solid.  This is why you DO NOT draft defenses until the bitter end.  But I digress. The Ravens travel to New England on Sunday.  The Patriots haven’t been in synch this season, but they are slowly coming around and it looks like both Welker and Moss will be on the field at the same time again.  The Ravens swarmed a bad Cleveland team at home, but they won’t have as easy a time this week in Foxboro.

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The round table being held by myself and other blogging experts rolls on and this week we look at the top running backs in fantasy football. We each went through and ranked our top five because let’s face it, after Adrian Peterson, a lot of things are up in the air and individuals have a lot of different opinions on who should go where. The thoughts listed in this round table are based on a non-PPR league. Head over and check it out and feel free to leave your comments here or on Rookie Blitz.

Link to Rookie Blitz

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Last week I introduced to you the first topic and set of answers from several bloggers around the web that are taking part in a fantasy football roundtable. The previous question was simply: what players are you avoiding in drafts this year. You can find the post here.

This week our post is a relatively simple again, but could be one of the most important questions asked as fantasy football drafts are in full swing: Which QB, RB, or WR with an ADP in the 10th or worse is your choice as the ultimate sleeper. These are players that are consistently being overlooked by fantasy owners and can be had for a very cheap price that will pay off nicely in the 2009 fantasy season. There’s always several players that fantasy owners brag about drafting after they put up big numbers, so why wonder who those guys might be when we’re just going to tell you. Here are our draft day sleepers that will be putting smiles on your faces when the season gets underway.

BigTroph
Josh Morgan (WR – San Francisco 49ers)

ADP: 11.10, 130 overall, 44^th WR

While the San Francisco quarterback position has not been steady since Jeff Garcia left town, it has not helped that the team has been void of a solid wide receiver. Since 2004, the team’s leading pass catchers have been Eric Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Arnaz Battle, a disappointing Vernon Davis, and a washed up Isaac Bruce. The team was excited to get Michael Crabtree in this year’s draft, but seeing as he still hasn’t stepped foot on the field, I don’t think they will be getting much production from him in 2009. One guy should be thankful that Crabtree hasn’t come around yet though and that is Josh Morgan.

A second year receiver, Morgan was already being pegged as a breakthrough candidate this year and now that Crabtree has decided to hold out, his stock continues to rise. In limited opportunities last year, Morgan showed flashes of potential. He only had 20 receptions in 2009, but he averaged 16 yards per catch and in week seven versus a strong New York Giants defense, he hauled in five catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. Morgan has average size at 6’0, 219 pounds, but he runs a low-to-mid 4.4 40. The NFC West is arguably the weakest division in football and Morgan will surely benefit from playing Seattle and St. Louis a combined four times this year. On top of that, in week 16 (most league championships) he goes up against the Lions. The quarterback position is still shaky, but Shaun Hill has looked better in training camp and it will be his first season under new coordinator Jimmy Raye who is doing big things to positively change the 49ers’ offensive philosophy. All of this will spell success for owners taking Morgan towards the end of their drafts to round out their receiving corps.

Razzball
Tim Hightower (RB – Arizona Cardinals)

ADP: 11.05, 108 overall, 41^st RB

Tim Hightower burst onto the scene in 2008 as Edgerrin James watched his career slowly slip away.  Hightower ended the season with 10 TD, but only managed 399 yards and a paltry 2.79 yards per carry.  To make matters worse, Arizona used their first round pick on RB Chris “Beanie” Wells from The Ohio State University.  However, Beanie has developed a reputation for being injury prone, getting hurt in his junior year at OSU, then going down August 1^st in camp with an ankle injury, and aggravating the injury on the 18^th.  Also, Hightower has run well in the preseason so far putting up 4.4 yards per carry against the Steelers and Chargers.  Atleast for now, Hightower’s job as the Cardinals starting RB has been solidified.  The Cardinals don’t face any tough run defenses to start the season (49ers, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, and Seahawks), so if Hightower can come out of the gate strong and fend off Beanie for a while, he should easily be looking at 1000 yards and 10 TD’s.  That puts him right up there with Gore, Lynch, Kevin Smith, and Ronnie Brown.

RapidDraft
Trent Edwards (QB – Buffalo Bills)

ADP: 11.03, 123 overall, 17^th QB

I like the potential that Trent Edwards brings into this season, and I love the value to be had at his ADP. Donovan McNabb and Jeff Garcia each posted much better touchdown numbers with Terrell Owens at their disposal than they have without him, and McNabb had easily the best season of his career across the board in the lone full year he shared with Owens. We don’t have the after comparison for Tony Romo yet, but I have no doubt that Owens’ presence eased his transition to being a pro starter and pumped up his touchdown totals. The Bills also plan to take more shots deep to Lee Evans, and connecting even a few times that way would help boost Edwards’ numbers.

Edwards was a pretty efficient passer when healthy last season, finishing with a 65.5 completion rate that was more than 9 percentage points better than that of his rookie campaign. His 10-for-10 outing against the Bears in his third exhibition game seems to follow that trend. I project Edwards to face one of the league’s easier schedules for quarterbacks, and the prevalence of the no-huddle in Buffalo’s plan shows that the coaches trust their young passer. The rebuilt offensive line will be a worry, but Matt Cassel showed us last year that you can get sacked a lot and still wind up productive.

Edwards regularly goes around 16th or even later among quarterbacks, but I think — as long as he can stay healthy — he’ll finish the season at least among the top 12.

Fantasy Football Roundtable
Shaun Hill (QB – San Francisco 49ers)

ADP: 14.01, 157 overall, 22^nd QB

I liked this dude a lot at the end of last year. Threw at least one TD pass in seven of the eight games he started at the end of the year.  I’d figure him for 3500 passing yards and about 20 TDs; which puts him in the Eli Manning/Jake Delhomme fantasy QB range, a steal at his current ADP of 14.01.

Rookie Blitz
Steve Smith (WR – New York Giants)

ADP: 11.09, 129 overall, 43^rd WR

Steve Smith is a wide receiver that I am trying to get after the 10^th Round on all of my fantasy teams in 2009.  Hixon has been the early sleeper pick so far in early drafts, but Smith possesses the better overall skill set and has the legendary Jerry Rice pulling for him.  Both Smith and Hixon were just named the starters for the Giants to begin the season.

The upside Smith presents as he enters the all important third year at wide receiver will allow you to load up at running back and lock down your starter at QB if you haven’t already done so.  Eli Manning already trusted him enough last year as Smith led the team in receptions from the slot.  I’ve always felt that if given the opportunity, Steve Smith could develop into a Reggie Wayne type of receiver.  If Smith can put up 1,000 yards and 6 TD’s after the 10^th round, then you have just committed highway robbery.

Fantasy Phenoms
Fred Taylor (RB – New England Patriots)

ADP: 11.04, 124 overall, 51^st RB

There are A LOT of players I have in mind that could have suited this question, but I am going to go with who I feel is getting far too little respect.

Fred Taylor is now the starting running back on the best offense in the game, and regardless of there being a full RBBC in New England, Taylor is far and away the best “runner” of the bunch.

With an ADP of 124.24, Taylor can be a steal of a back-up RB once you have your starters all locked up. New England tends to be a fountain of youth for aging stars, and Taylor is just a few years removed from posting back-to-back 5.0+ yd/carry and 1,100+ yard seasons.

Taylor will be getting at least 15 carries a game, and should be the main guy to run out the clock in the second half, as the Patriots will likely be protecting Tom Brady late in games.

Back to the RBBC- Kevin Faulk is more of a pass-catching threat out of the back-field, BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a short-yardage guy not likely to exceed 5+ carries a game, and Laurence Maroney is simply in Bill Belichick’s doghouse for whatever reason.

Steal Taylor in the later rounds, forget about the other Pat Backs, and hope for found value. If you aren’t relying on him as a weekly starter, the upside with that RB depth could be tremendous.

As always feel free to leave your comments below along with your 2009 super sleepers or guys you are aiming for late in drafts.

Popularity: 100% [?]

Last week I advertised for the fantasy roundtable discussion that was being conducted between myself and the owners in the Razzball Invitational Fantasy Experts League. Well the first discussion has been posted and here it is for your reading pleasure.

The first topic: Which players are you completely avoiding in 2009?

Doc, Razzball

Brian Westbrook — He turns 30 before the season starts and had two offseason surgeries, and not surgery on his left ear, surgery on his ankle and knee, two parts that running backs often use unless they do some handstand running. In points per reception leagues it will be hard to pass him up because he will haul in plenty of catches, but even there I am suspicious. If LeSean McCoy is capable we could easily see Westbrook’s role diminish as he tries to stay healthy.

Kurt Warner — I have touted this guy for the last few years based on his upside and usually late adp, but now that he’s coming off hip surgery and is going around the 5th round I believe there is much more value in a healthier QB. He says he’s at around 85 percent which is 85 percent of an old guy with a bad hip. I could be proven wrong here, and I usually go for upside over anything else, but I think Warner’s luck will run out this year.

Santana Moss — This guy can have games that will win your week for you, but more often than not he’ll lose a week for you. In the final 8 games last season he didn’t top 72 yards and had 1 touchdown, uno. And even in the first half when he had some outstanding games he would come back the next week and shat a goose egg on your computer screen. With the undevelopment of Campbell it is hard to believe he will become more consistent this year. I’m not touching him with a ten foot guitar.

Bryan Fontaine, RookieBlitz

My draft philosophy is to never cross any player off your draft board, all players have value.  Depending on your own personal rankings, you may have several players way down on your list that will go much sooner than you would take them.  In theory, you let others make the tough decisions for you.  This season there is three players on my draft board that are much lower than others and I will be avoiding each at all cost: WR Eddie Royal, RB Jamal Lewis, and QB Jake Delhomme.

Eddie Royal by all accounts had a successful rookie campaign.  Many things came together creating the perfect situation:  the Brandon Marshall suspension, a mediocre running game, a crumbling defense, and a pass happy offense led by Jay Cutler that often played from behind.  Fast forward to 2009 and Royal is unlikely to duplicate last year’s totals.  Brandon Stokley will be inheriting the Welker role in McDaniel’s offense limiting the PPR potential of Royal.  The game plan will become more conservative to limit Orton’s mistakes and capitalize on the strength of the offensive line.  Royal’s current ADP of WR23 is much lower than my ranking of WR34 for him.  Royal likely will not be on any of my teams this year.

Jamal Lewis is in for a brutal 2009 season.  Lewis faces an unsettled QB situation, one of the toughest schedules in the league, a new coaching regime, and Jerome Harrison and James Davis nipping at his heels.  There are many backups and RBBC RB’s who will give you much more bang for your buck than Lewis.  It is hard to imagine Lewis succeeding under these circumstances and he is not getting any younger.  The cupboard was left bare by Crennel and Savage, don’t hedge your bets with the Browns offense in 2009.

Jake Delhomme in the past has been a decent fantasy option at quarterback largely because of the great Steve Smith.  This season Carolina faces a tough schedule and is moving to a more run oriented team led by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Delhomme may have sealed his fate with his atrocious playoff performance against the Cardinals highlighted by 6 turnovers.  Even if he bounces back, it will be hard to see Delhomme crack the top 24 QB’s.  I would rather have Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez as my last ditch backup QB in 2009.  You could even see a switch to Matt Moore or Josh McCown as early as midseason for the Panthers if Delhomme continues his downward spiral.

Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms

The player I am avoiding like the plague is the Rams Steven Jackson. The reason I am avoiding him is not because I doubt his talent, but because I doubt his ability to stay healthy, and the fact that he is a runner on a lousy team. Jackson has missed a combined 8 games in the last two seasons, and has only played in all 16 once during his five-year career.  I like to have limited risk and headaches when it comes to my first overall selection.

If he does stay healthy, he won’t be posting huge numbers. The Rams will not be in many close games late, so expect a lot of desperation passing plays once we hit the 4th quarter, hence limiting Jackson’s touches. There are plenty of better options in the 1st round, who are younger, healthier and are in better situations to provide for your team than Jackson.

Moving to the QB slot, I am in no way whatsoever targeting Tony Romo. He lost Terrell Owens, and even with him last season, Romo barely cracked the Top-10 QB list in most formats. He now has to rely on Roy Williams as a No. 1 WR, and while his potential is there, I need to see some proof before putting stock into the Cowboys air attack.

I have no desire to reach on Romo in rounds I can fill out my WR corp. or select that flex RB, while waiting a few rounds to get a QB like Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler. The Cowboys will be focusing on the ground game this season with three quality runners in Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.

As for the WR I am avoiding, Steve Smith of Carolina may be past his best years from a fantasy perspective. Smith’s overall stats have regressed in each season since his ridiculous 2005. With the Panther’s dual running attack in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and Jake Delhomme being on the decline, Smith should see his 4th straight year of his numbers going south.

Greg Dietz, Big Troph

Willis McGahee – Every year McGahee is one of those guys that comes up when you’re picking and either you look at him and think he’s a steal or you think he’s a bust waiting to happen. I’d say that the split on him is 50/50. In all honesty, in his five years in the league, three of them have been 1,100+ yard seasons which isn’t too bad, but his touchdown totals have not been as stellar. He has had double digit touchdowns in one year (2004) and since then has had no more than seven in one season. Plus, by no means is he a threat as a receiver out of the backfield (you can expect about 15-20 catches from him). To top it all off, the Ravens have been giving LeRon McClain a lot of goal line carries and second year back Ray Rice is turning heads in camp. This will lead to McGahee getting less carries and his numbers spiraling in 2009.

Carson Palmer – At one time, Palmer showed the skills of potentially being one of the best quarterbacks in football for a very long time. However, after several injuries, Palmer is falling into the middle to late rounds of most fantasy drafts and rightfully so. When Palmer was at his best, he had a powerful Rudi Johnson in his backfield and Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh lining up on the outside. Even Chris Henry was regarded as one of the best slot receivers in football at that time. Fast forward to 2009 and as Palmer is coming off of an elbow injury that he probably should have had Tommy John surgery on, when he looks at the depth chart he will still see Chad (just with a different last name), Chris Henry, and that’s where the comparisons end. Cedric Benson is now the runningback and he could be good if he runs like he did in his years at Texas (doubtful). As mentioned, Palmer still has two other headcases in Ochocinco and Henry on the outside, and an aging Laveranues Coles. This is arguably Palmer’s worst supporting cast in his time in the NFL so I highly doubt he is going to catapult back to elite status in 2009.

Eli Manning – I’m tired of hearing, “But he just signed the highest contract in football!” and “He has a Super Bowl ring!” None of that matters. Eli Manning earned that contract and won that Super Bowl because of Plaxico Burress and in case you might have forgotten, Burress will be sitting at home (or in jail) this season. Before getting Burress, Manning was criticized for being inaccurate, inconsistent, and unable to lead. When you add a 6’5” 232 pound receiver who can springboard to catch overthrown balls and even grab passes that were intended for other receivers that went awry, of course Manning’s numbers went up. Now, he is playing with Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and Ramses Barden. These five guys have a combined 104 catches for 1,196 yards and three touchdowns in their careers. The Giants’ offense is going to struggle in 2009 and Manning’s numbers will come back down to reality. Still not convinced? When Burress was in the lineup, Manning’s QB rating was 91.6. When he was out? 68.5.

Joshua Torrey, FantasyDC

Antonio Bryant — The Tampa Bay WR surprised the Fantasy World last season after remaining dormant through years of being on everyone’s Sleeper lists. It seems once all expectations were removed, he finally felt the freedom to show up. Well guess what? The expectations are back and now he is the only Big Play WR on a less than ideal Offense. The team made additions at RB and could produce valuable Fantasy Players at that position — but the QB carousel that will possibly continue into the Season will not help the already-mediocre passing attack.

With the loss of Joey Galloway, Bryant will find himself lining up with Michael Clayton (another underachiever) and one of the Buccaneers new unproven WRs (Sammie Stroughter or Dexter Jackson). The addition of Kellen Winslow Jr. is a plus, but can he stay healthy? Winslow himself was a very strong candidate for this same list. Defenses will know who they need to stop in this passing offense. Once most #1 WRs are gone, start considering Bryant but there are plenty of #2 WRs that will match, if not greatly overshadow, his production.

Joseph Addai — How can a RB playing behind Peyton Manning be on this list? Addai right now is being labeled a Fantasy Sleeper. Every owner is dreaming of him falling to the 2nd-3rd Round and producing 1st Round numbers out of him. Well don’t crush their dream. Unless you are in a TD-heavy league, Addai and Brown will be splitting the workload in the ways that count. Brown will work to reduce Addai’s PPR Value and will greatly reduce his receiving yard totals. While this might not result in a huge hit to Addai, the oft injured (maybe an exaggeration) RB will no longer be able to sit out weeks and assume his job is safe. The Colts will likely ride the hot hand (in this case feet) like they did when Rhodes was starting in front of Addai. And the one thing Rookies do well is display their hunger on the field.

Donald Brown will remain healthy as long as he splits time with Addai. This will keep him ready to take over toward the middle and late portions of the season and there may be no looking back for Brown if Addai sits 2-4 Weeks. So is Addai still worth drafting in the Late 3rd Round? Of course, but unless you are willing and ready to spend an extra reach pick on Donald Brown, look elsewhere to players that don’t have such a clear Handcuff sitting on the bench. If a player like Kevin Smith is still available, you should not even consider Addai. While Smith might not have the huge weeks Addai has, Smith won’t lose more and more carries as the season progresses.

Jason Campbell — The Washington QB is a sad addition to this list. He has a good WR Squad, a great (although aging) RB, a satisfactory line and one of the better Offensive Systems for a QB. So why is he on this list? Oh lets see… the Redskins wanted Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton (if you believe the reports) and Mark Sanchez all more than him. Campbell handled it all like a pro and kept his mouth from running in front of the media, but you’ve got to believe he is furious. Likewise, the Redskins Coaching Staff and Organization obviously have lost a lot of faith in him. Once a team starts losing faith, relationships start to dwindle and upset players can become bench players.

Campbell is going to start the season and has a significant chance to finish the season. But a poor start (record wise) or a incompetent start (production wise) will lead to an early benching. It doesn’t help that the Redskins drafted the perfect QB for their system in Colt Brennan last year. He looked great in the Pre-Season last year and while there is no promise of him being the savior for the team, he’ll get his chance this Off-Season to move up as the main backup to Campbell. Between Brennan being humbled by his draft position and Campbell being a little ticked about the Trading Block home he had for a few weeks, Brennan might end up being the more teachable of the two (despite his known attitude issues). If Shaun Hill, Marc Bulger or Kerry Collins is still available, they surely have more faith being placed in them at this point. Roll with a guy who wasn’t on his team’s trading block the entire two weeks leading up to the NFL Draft.

In the upcoming weeks we will be hosting several other questions so keep your eyes peeled for more fantasy tips for the 2009 season as your drafts are probably firing on cylinders now.

Popularity: 17% [?]

Yesterday I brought you my first eight picks from the Razzball Invitational Experts League draft that took place on Monday evening. A quick recap of who I got with my first eight picks:

1 (7) – Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari

2 (14) – Frank Gore, RB, SF

3 (27) – Ryan Grant, RB, GB

4 (34) – Terrell Owens, WR, Buf

5 (47) – Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atl

6 (54) – Donovan McNabb, QB, Phi

7 (67) – Santana Moss, WR, Was

8 (74) – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car

At this point in the draft I was heavily in need of backup wide receivers and at least one more RB in addition to my backup QB, kicker, and defense. Let’s pick it up in round nine where I may have reached a bit too far for a defense.

9.7 (87) Philadelphia, D/ST – Coming into training camp, Philadelphia was expected to have one of the top defenses in football as usual. But then defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away, MLB Stewart Bradley went down for the season with a torn ACL, and all of a sudden the picture looked bleak. These are a lot of hits for a team to take, but the Eagles secondary is still just as good as it was when camp started (knock on wood) with Asante Samuel, Sheldon Brown, Joselio Hanson, and Ellis Hobbs playing corner while underrated safety Quentin Mikell returns to his SS spot. I didn’t necessarily draft Philadelphia because they will prevent other teams from scoring points, but because they will put a lot of points on the board themselves. Samuel is always a threat to take one back to the house and with Hobbs, Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson returning kicks, a special teams touchdown is never too far away. I like having a solid D/ST and I think Philadelphia will fill that role.

10.4 (94) Willie Parker, RB, Pit – I faced a dilemma in the 8th round of whether to draft Stewart or Parker as you may remember and ended up choosing Stewart because he will play a larger role in Carolina’s scheme than Parker will in Pittsburgh’s. However, when Parker was still sitting there in the 10th round, I had to take him. Parker as an RB3 is good, but as an RB4 is even better. His ADP is right around 90 so I felt confident investing in him. While Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall will surely steal carries from him this year, if he can stay healthy, Parker will force Moore to the sideline and is always a threat to bust through a defense and pick up 20+ yards. I was nervous about having Grant and Gore as my starters, but with two quality backups, I eased my angst.

11.7 (107) Derrick Mason, WR, Bal – I got Mason at a slightly higher price than I would like, but at this point in the draft I still only had my three starting wide receivers and was in desperate need of another. I could have taken Percy Harvin in this spot, but even though he is being sold as the next great thing in Minnesota, I can’t see him having as many balls thrown his way as Mason will. Despite his brief retirement and a nagging finger injury he suffered recently, Mason is pretty much the only reliable target that Joe Flacco will have in Baltimore. Demetrius Williams and Mark Clayton are consistent overrated under-performers while TEs Todd Heap and L.J. Smith are walking injuries waiting to happen. I have a feeling that due to his experience and the lack of talent in his other receivers, Mason will become Flacco’s safety valve and he will be glad he came back for 2009 when he finishes with over 1000 yards and close to 10 TDs.

12.4 (114) Chris Chambers, WR, SD – Chambers is the second best receiver in San Diego behind teammate Vincent Jackson, but these guys have a lot of the same abilities and Chambers is still a very reliable target for QB Philip Rivers. I feel that this might be Rivers’ best year as a starter because with the team figuring out how to balance the running attack of LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, it will help to settle down the offense. San Diego has been criticized of not having decent enough receivers in recent years, but Chambers and Jackson will both work wonders for hushing that debate. While Jackson will probably finish with over 1000 yards and end up as Rivers’ preferred wide receiver, Chambers will be a huge part of the offense and I felt comfortable making him my WR5 over names like Michael Crabtree, Muhsin Muhammad, and Deion Branch who were all still available.

13.7 (127) Trent Edwards, QB, Buf – Experts are on the brink of being very excited for what Buffalo’s offense will be able to do in 2009 with the addition of Terrell Owens, but they’re hesitant to commit to making the Bills a playoff team because they’re still not sure what the team has in Edwards. I believe that landing Owens was the best thing that happened for the QB and he could potentially finish in the top-10 this year at his position. Having Owens on the field will take a lot of attention off of stud WR Lee Evans and with other solid players in Roscoe Parrish, Josh Reed, and rookie TE Shawn Nelson taking the field, Edwards is surrounded by nothing short of one of the most potentially talented offenses in the AFC. I have bought into Buffalo’s system and Edwards as my backup is one of the picks that could be very rewarding for me in 2009.

14.4 (134) David Akers, K, Phi – After drafting Akers I questioned what I was thinking because he is the third Eagle on my roster (along with McNabb and the D/ST). However, I quickly remembered how painfully dreadful the Eagles were in the red zone last year and I became more confident in my pick of the kicker. The Eagles were hoping that the emergence of rookie TE Cornelius Ingram would assist them in finding the endzone more when getting past the 20 yard line. But when Ingram went down with a season ending torn ACL, I immediately knew their potential redzone efficiency went down a little bit too, which only means more field goal attempts for Akers. The kicker said a team record for points in a single season last year and led the NFC with 144 points. While the Eagles will have improved success close to the endzone with additions such as FB Leonard Weaver and the promotion of TE Brent Celek to the starting role, Akers will still get plenty of opportunities to split the uprights.

15.7 (147) Limas Sweed, WR, Pit – The 6’4″ 212 pound Sweed had only 64 yards receiving last year, but word out of Pittsburgh training camping in Latrobe, PA is that Sweed has looked absolutely fantastic as the team’s slot receiver. Pittsburgh’s offense has always given plenty of looks to the third receiver on the team whether it was Nate Washington, Santonio Holmes, or Antwaan Randel-El and I expect Sweed to fill that role just as well. Sweed is bigger and doesn’t have the speed of the aforementioned players, but he will be able to go up for more passes over the middle than they could and take a hit from a safety/linebacker with ease. His frame easily makes him the biggest receiver on the team which means he will get a lot of looks from QB Ben Roethlisberger who towers at 6’5″ himself. While I’m not expecting Sweed to put up Steve Breaston-esque numbers, I think he’s a lock to rake in over 600 yards and will be a primary target in the redzone for Roethlisberger.

So there you have it. I think my team could be a little better at RB and I don’t have a backup TE, but overall I think that this squad rounds out nicely. If these players produce at the levels that I predict, I highly doubt I will have to make many moves over the course of the season. One thing I am going to struggle with is byes in week four because several of my players are off and the early bye usually makes players more susceptible to injury, but that is something that I have no control over.

Let me know your thoughts and I look forward to sharing my team’s progress with you each week as the season begins.

Popularity: 4% [?]

Last night I posted about the Razzball Invitational Experts Draft that I took part in with contributors from nine other sites. The draft was hosted by Chet from over at razzball.com and was absolutely a blast. It only took an hour and 10 minutes, but it was very easy to see that all of these guys know exactly what they are doing and have certainly earned the title of “expert.”

As promised, here is my roster in order of when a pick was made, and my thoughts on my roster. This post consists of picks from the first through eighth rounds and the second half of the draft will be posted tomorrow.

In the coming days, I will be posting the answer to a round table discussion that I am taking part in along with the other experts. Over the course of time until the season begins, each site will host a different question, and all of the answers will be posted right here for you at bigtroph.com. The first question is simply this: “What 3-5 players are you avoiding in 2009 and why.” Check back in the near future for all of the guys’ opinions.

As for now, onto the draft results (feel free to rip me if you feel so inclined):

1.7 (7) Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari – With the big name RBs off the board at this point, I chose to go WR first for one of the first times in all my years as a fantasy owner. Tomlinson, Slaton, and Chris Johnson were still on the board, but Fitzgerald is a proven commodity in the league whereas L.T. is battling injuries and who knows if Slaton and Johnson will be able to replicate their rookie seasons. Overall, Fitzgerald is typically going around 7 or 8 in Yahoo leagues this year and I felt very happy getting the best receiver in football right away.

2.4 (14) Frank Gore, RB, SF – It never seems to fail that I get Gore in a league each year. While he always seems to under perform or get hurt, I feel that this may be Gore’s year to actually live up to the hype. While San Francisco’s passing attack might not be all that great (even if/when Michael Crabtree signs at this point) it should be good enough for defenses to not simply load the box with defenders which will open holes for Gore. On top of that, San Francisco drafted Glen Coffee to take some of the load off of their main back. If coach Mike Singletary can effectively figure out how to team up Gore and Coffee, Gore could have one of the biggest seasons of his career in 2009.

3.7 (27) Ryan Grant, RB, GB – This was the biggest stretch I made in the draft and I’m still not sure how I feel about it. Grant didn’t live up to his new contract last year scoring only four touchdowns, but he did have just under four yards per carry and racked up 1200 yards. I felt as if I needed another strong runningback in case Gore goes down and if I didn’t take Grant I would have had to choose from several guys that I’m not completely sold on in Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, and Marshawn Lynch (who will miss time while serving a suspension). I could have done much worse, and while having Grant and Gore as my starting backs isn’t awful, it’s just not ideal.

4.4 (34) Terrell Owens, WR, Buf – A lot of pundits are saying that T.O. is slowly washing up. His hands have been questionable the past couple of seasons and his reality show may be a bigger distraction than people think. However, I have seen what Owens can do in his first year with a new team and when you see how in shape he is, you know that he can still bring it every Sunday. Owens is going right around pick 31 in Yahoo drafts so I pretty much got him at standard price. A toe injury that flared up today is kind of scaring me because they can nag a player, but I expect Owens to have a solid 2009. With him and Fitzgerald starting for me every Sunday, I’m pretty happy.

5.7 (47) Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atl – This again is another pick that I got at value (Gonzo is going around pick 43 this year).  At this point in the draft, I knew that tight ends would start going off the board as the elite talent at RB and WR was drying up so when my pick came up and Gonzalez was sitting there, I had to make the move. While Gonzalez may be approaching the fading sunset of his career, I think that life in Atlanta will be a good thing for him. Matt Ryan is one of the best QBs that he has ever played with and with Michael Turner and Roddy White distracting defenses, it will open up the field for Gonzo who is used to being the only guy on the field that is a receiving threat. My pass catching options at this point are making me drool.

6.4 (54) Donovan McNabb, QB, Phi – It has been one of my philosophies lately to grab skill players in the first 5-6 rounds and then take a decent second-tier quarterback to be my starter. I could have had Romo or Warner in this slot, but like McNabb’s potential better. McNabb asked for weapons in the offseason and he got them. Despite signing late, rookie Jeremy Maclin is going to open up the field for #5 even more than it was last year. Word out of training camp is that DeSean Jackson looks faster and much more polished at receiver which only means that the chemistry between he and McNabb will be even greater. I haven’t had McNabb on a fantasy team in a long time because of his tendency to be streaky, but 2009 could be a return to fantasy heaven for McNabb owners.

7.7 (67) Santana Moss, WR, Was – I’ll be honest. I’ve been burned by Santana Moss for several years. I draft him high, expect him to be a top-flight wide receiver and then he turns out to be a so-so pickup who gives me huge games some weeks and zilch the next. 2008 was an encouraging year for Moss though as he hauled in the second most catches in a season in his career and also eclipsed the 1000 yard mark while bringing in seven touchdowns. I truly feel that this will be Jason Campbell’s make or break year and that pressure will push him to deliver results. Moss will definitely benefit from this along with the emergence of second-year wide receiver Devin Thomas who is supposedly going to be the starter across from Santana. On top of all this, I got him about a full-round after his average draft position which means that Moss could be a bit of a steal for me.

8.4 (74) Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car – At this point, I was in desperate need of a backup runningback and was disappointed to see that most of the quality backs were gone at this point. At the top of the list of best remaining on my board were Stewart and Willie Parker. Both are the same size, have similar running tendencies, and could produce the same numbers. The one thing that led me to take Stewart was that he and DeAngelo Williams have turned into arguably the best RB tandem in football whereas Parker is slowly becoming part of a strict RBBC with Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh. Despite Williams rushing for 18 touchdowns last year, Stewart still managed to find a way to sneak in 10 of his own and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. If Williams goes down, Stewart will be able to fill in masterfully and even if they both stay healthy through 2009, I still expect Stewart to put up over 1000 yards and another 10 touchdowns which isn’t too shabby for my RB3.

Coming tomorrow afternoon is the second part of the draft. Find out who I took to back up Donovan McNabb, which defense I may have made a drastic (and potentially regrettable reach for), and which player I took in the last round that has me all sorts of excited.

Popularity: 4% [?]

As training camps creep closer and closer, there is undoubtedly at least one position on most teams where fans can look and see a hole that could be filled with a capable veteran. While these players are not expected to come in and shine for an organization, it is typically thought that they can offer unparalleled knowledge and can serve the role of a capable backup in case the main guy at a position goes down with an injury. Ten years removed from being the NFL Rookie of the Year, Edgerrin James is fitting that mold in 2009.

James was drafted fourth overall out of Miami in 1999 and dazzled the football world when in his first two years he became the perfect complement to budding quarterback Peyton Manning. He ran for 1553 yards and 13 touchdowns his rookie year and followed up with a sophomore surge of 1709 yards and another 13 touchdowns. Clearly, James was on the road to becoming one of the greatest of all time. However, in 2001, James tore his ACL and following the surgery put up only 1600 yards over the next two years and a combined five touchdowns which led critics to believe that another knee injury had claimed yet another talented runningback.

James proved the naysayers wrong when from 2003 through 2007 in his time in Indianapolis and Arizona, he never posted less than 1150 yards rushing and six touchdowns. Despite recording over 1200 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in 2007, Arizona decided that they would focus on their passing game and abandoned the ground attack for the better part of 2008 which significantly hindered James. He only had 133 carries (the lowest of his career) and reached the endzone just three times. In fact, over the course of weeks eight through 16 in which James played in six games, he had just 18 carries. With Tim Hightower already in the fold, the Cardinals drafted Ohio State runningback Chris Wells in this year’s draft which was consequently Edgerrin’s ticket out of Arizona.

Here we are as July comes to a close and James still hasn’t signed on with a team. His name has been linked to New Orleans and Philadelphia at different times throughout the offseason, but still no team has even stepped up to make an offer. In a recent article in the Fort Myers News-Press, James was candid about his thoughts on playing again when he said, “There are not 32 backs out there who are better than me…I want to continue to play. I can play at a high level.”

There is no doubt in this writer’s mind that James can still bring it on the football field. Despite having passed the foreboding age of 30, James stepped it up last year as the Cardinals began to balance their offense toward the end of the season. He recorded a 100 yard game in week 17 against Seattle on just 14 carries and had almost 75 yards rushing against both Atlanta and Philadelphia in postseason play (in each of those games he averaged 4.6 yards per carry). If James had not stepped it up when his number was finally called as the season wore on, the Cardinals may not have made it to the Super Bowl.

For some reason, James has been given a bad label of being injured and not quite the player he once was. But since his injury season of 2001, James has missed just nine games in seven seasons and continues to increase his career totals in yardage which now stands at 12,121. If James were to have a 1000 yard season in 2009, he would jump to seventh on the all-time rushing list just behind Eric Dickerson and would only be looking at Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin, Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, and Emmitt Smith in front of him.

James has been around the block for quite some time in the NFL. While he is not looked at as the flashy rookie of the year winner that he was in the early and mid-parts of the decade, James still has gas left in the tank and if he were to sign on with a team, would immediately provide the squad with a more than dangerous backup to spell a starter. Not only that, but his successes in the league would be invaluable from a teaching standpoint.

Even when James is signed, he will most likely not be the number one guy in a given city. New Orleans loves what they have in Pierre Thomas behind Reggie Bush and Philadelphia is slowly falling in love with rookie LeSean McCoy who is seated nicely underneath Brian Westbrook on the team’s depth chart. No matter what team James ends up with (and trust me, he’ll be playing in 2009), he will immediately become a stellar fantasy handcuff to a franchise’s lead back. Keep an eye on news surrounding James as the weeks go by and when he signs, don’t hesitate to give him a good look.

Popularity: 3% [?]

It was reported today that Ben Roethlisberger recently had a civil suit served on him over the weekend. In it, Andrea McNulty, a Harrah’s casino employee, claims that Roethlisberger sexually assaulted her. With this tabloid-worthy morsel, the NFL is being carried into yet another spinning vortex of legal problems which also makes things messy for fantasy owners.

Roethlisberger made a smart move when he canceled a Thursday press conference that had been scheduled to discuss his role in Shaquille O’Neal’s new show “Shaq vs.” But the emerging trend of this whole thing is disgusting. It seems as if the NFL can never be void of some sort of legal mess at any given time. Michael Vick, Pacman Jones, Donte Stallworth, and now Ben Roethlisberger have bludgeoned the image of the league and one has to wonder if it will ever stop.

The NFL is clearly filled with a bunch of men who make more money than most athletes in all of the other major professional sports (except Alex Rodriguez of course) and this money tends to lead to unbelievably inexcusable personal actions occurring off the field on a regular basis. If these allegations are true, it shows that the athletes who are labeled as “thugs” are not the only ones that the league has to worry about.

Roethlisberger was the youngest quarterback to ever lead his team to a Super Bowl victory, has secured another championship since then for Pittsburgh, was developing a reputation as one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league after coming back from his motorcycle accident and emergency appendectomy in 2006, and was projected to have a great season in 2009. With these accusations, it all changes and even the All American quarterback is now subject to being put under the media spotlight.

I am one of the people who was thrilled for Roethlisberger’s potential in 2009. I even drafted him in my first fantasy draft of the year. With Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield to complement receivers Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Limas Sweed, along with tight end Heath Miller, it was hard to argue against anyone claiming that the Steelers would have a chance to repeat. I’m sure that some of you are thinking that this will be taken care of before too long, but even if it does blow over, never underestimate the power of legal drama. It is absolutely emotionally draining and can really take a toll on the normal person, let alone a football player who will now be stalked from the minute he walks out his door in the morning to the time he goes to bed at night.

I think that Roethlisberger will be able to handle this entire situation better than most in his shoes would. He has a good head on his shoulders and as was previously mentioned, he is a tough guy who battles through everything. Despite this, if you already own Big Ben you might want to think about looking at the waiver wire to see who is available in case you suddenly feel uncomfortable with this whole situation or it explodes into something even bigger than it already is. If you are thinking about drafting him, take heed because while we as fantasy owners can project how great or how terrible a player might be against a certain football team, we cannot predict how they will perform against a team of lawyers.

Popularity: 1% [?]