For those of you who haven’t watched a sitcom, ever: Sadie Hawkins Day is the day when the girls ask the guys to the dance. It’s also known as opposite day or backwards day. How does this relate to fantasy football you may ask? When you start having crappy weeks doing the exact opposite of your instinct could be your only hope to turn it around.

I was chatting last Sunday with my buddy @Kev_brady (Follow him he’ll entertain you.) as I was having hands down the worst fantasy week I’ve ever had. Every single decision I made turned out to be the wrong one. I benched MSW (Mike Sims-Walker for the unindoctrinated.) for Andre Caldwell. I didn’t start Beanie Wells despite my entire ahead of the curve spiel. I sat the defense of my favorite team (49ers) to start the Bills D! Add to that just two awful games from Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston, I was doomed. So in between mocking me and questioning how I planned to make up the massive point deficits facing me Kev posed this idea: “Why don’t you just do the opposite of what you’re instinct is telling you?” He may have posed it a bit more um colorfully. Four letter words aside, the point was everything you’re doing is wrong. Nothing is going right. Do something different. Stop listening to yourself because you’re stupid, frankly.

When you’re on the way to an 0-3 week and all of your teams seem to be sputtering towards the finish line, I think you’ll try just about any thing to get off the snide. So that’s what I’m doing this week. This Sunday is Sadie Hawkins Day! Let me give you a run down:

I’m worried about starting Brandon Jacobs, ever. The plan? Start Brandon Jacobs.

I’m nervous that Beanie Wells can’t produce back to back solid games. Solution? Put him in the line up!

I’m compelled to start Braylon Edwards for whatever reason. Where’s Edwards? On the bench.

I’m scouring the waiver wire for a replacement for the Broncos D.  Who do I get to replace them? No one, we’re not changing horses mid stream.

Where is this going to get me? I won’t know until next Monday morning. But if you need some advice, take mine. Let the girl ask you to the dance this week. If you’re struggling, what’s it going to hurt? I wouldn’t recommend it if you’re not struggling though. If your team is going well, the bye weeks are all over and it’s time to dance with the one you came with. Don’t get cute this late in the season. However, if you’re finding yourself on the fringe of the playoff race you should make a big move. It’s time to go big or go home and I have no intentions of going home.

A couple of quick hits for you:

He may not have done much but MSW (or Sky-Walker whatever works) has to be considered an every day starter.

What a game Ricky Williams had huh? Who knew we’d ever see that from him. I imagine that’s the player Ditka thought he was getting. If you’re in a deep league take a flyer on Kory Sheets. You never know what kind of scheme Miami may cook up for him.

I picked up Josh Freeman in a keeper league. I recommend people do the same. It may not pay dividends this year but I think you could get a top 15 QB on the cheap for next year, or at the very least a decent bye week fill in.

If you have anyone on the Bills, I’d consider dropping them.

Thanks for reading, please follow me on Twitter @HackLaSalle. Feedback always appreciated.

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It’s week 11, and at this point you know if you have a shot at the playoffs or not. You have added and dropped, second guessed your self, cursed at Chris Johnson (I know I have), and maybe even traded a play or two. So what do you do now to keep the momentum going? Here is some friendly advice to the teams that are on top or looking to get into the playoffs.

Never “Set it and forget it”

Yeah that line worked for the “Ronco Rotisserie Cooker” (bad infomercial reference), but not for your fantasy football line up. These next few weeks are crucial; you cannot just coast and lock up the playoff spot we are all looking for. I have preached matchups all season and for the most part I have been right, play the guys with the best match ups, it is OK to bench the big names for the best matchups. Remember the real NFL teams are looking better than others, so they may sit someone for a game because he is “a little banged up” because they can win without him, especially an offensive linemen, which could effect the running game.

Last Minute Pickups

I know at this point of the season this is very tough to do, but, “another man’s trash, is another man’s treasure!” This is so true with add/drops at this point. Look at what the guys in your league are dropping, and if you can fit them in your lineup, do it. When you see someone add Lex Hilliard because he is Ricky Williams’s backup and they drop someone that had actually produced this year, add him to your bench, you never know when you will need an extra player, guys are getting injured left and right and the good teams are looking to the playoffs.

Kickers and Defenses can make a difference!

Yep, I said it. This is completely going against anything that I have ever said when talking about fantasy football, but this season it has been true. Let’s face it, points are points, whatever you can get is great. I usually draft a kicker with a big leg (extra points for distance) and a team that scores a lot of points, so basically I draft Neil Rackers every year. That has backfired on me as the Cardinals score more TD’s than they used to and I am getting 1 point instead of the 3 or 4 I used to. Look at the teams that have Red Zone issues, or the bad teams that are just happy to get on the board. Couple suggestions, Jason Hanson, Josh Brown, ect. As far as the Defenses go, matchups are huge, look at the bad teams and who they are playing, and if you can get their D, do it. I am actually playing the Detroit Defense against the lowly Browns. They cannot move the ball and the odds of a pick 6 are huge! Hopefully that helps you roll into the playoffs, if it doesn’t,

I feel your pain, been there, doing that! Look for another blog on how to be the spoiler!

Follow me on Twitter http://twitter.com/sportsguymike and email me questions, suggestions, and complaints, to sportsguymike@gmail.com

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The Steelers: Big Ben should be ballin’ against the 24th ranked pass defense. Him throwing means Ward, Wallace, Miller, Holmes should have fantastic games. Holmes seems to be left out more with Wallace’s emergence, so use them how I said them for fantasy football. Mendenhall, too, should have a mauling of a game. He can rush past a KC defenseallowing over 140 rushing yards per game. Defense though is a slightconcern ( think of the games with Polumalu out- in weeks 2 – 5 [CHI, CIN, SD, DET] in a standard nfl.com fantasy league, points were 7,6,7,13. Week 10 when he left, the Steeler defensefinished with10 points. Compared to weeks 1 and 6-9, the defense finished with 11,20,24,24 vs TEN, CLE, MIN, and DEN) Its your call though, but I think KC is a slightly different team with Charles at RB and Chambersat the WR position.

The Saints: The Rams came off a bye and a win the previous week to make the Saints run for their money. This week Brees and gang are facing TB ( defense- 211.9 passing yrds/game, 167.3 rushing yrds/game). Brees should rack up yards to prove that last week’s scare ment nothing. Look for him to make a majority of his throws to Colston(who was recovering from an illness last week but still played), Henderson (who I like over Meachem this week), and Bush(who may have the best game of the 3 [ receiving and rushing wise] and may see an increase in touches after some solid past weeks, I’m even going to say he gets a punt return too). Thomasshould also have a play day vs the horrible TB defense, with Bell getting some rushes, but not enough to consider a start. The defense should execute well also vs the rookie Freeman, who tends to fumble much, and Greer and Sharper possibly returning.

Jones-Drew: Sure he didn’t go for that game winning TD vs the Jets, but, knowing he let his fantasy football players down that week, he’ll play hard ( though he won’t have to ) vs the Buffalo Bills WHO ALLOW 173 YARDS RUSHING PER GAME  AND 14 RUSHING TDS TO DATE. He should easily be the number one rusher this week with plenty of passes coming this week too.

Palmer and WRs: Palmer just pulverizes opposing defense, and OAK is just a mess. OchoCincoshould dominate the pass attack with Coles and Caldwell getting good numbers too. Palmer does want Simpson to see more targets, but don’t consider him. Larry Johnson, as of now, won’t be the feature back. Benson is hurt and may play, but I can see an increased work load Bernard Scott, who may just put up OK numbers. The Bengals defensive should also crush the Raiders, so start them on your fantasy football team. [ Raiders defense: 211.6 pass yrds/game, 155.6 rush yrds/game].

Chirs Johnson: With 4 100+ yards rushing the last 4 weeks (one was 228 yards) and 2 TDs each of the last 3 weeks, he is an easy start. Oh, he also had 100 yards receiving last week and has seen in increased amount a receptions- Vince Young has obviously found he favorite passing target. Houston is tougher on the run than most teams ( 108.7 yards/ per game [14th], but momentum is a law and should easily carried him forward. If he begins to slow down, it will only be a slow decent. This week he is an easy start.

Warner (@ STL), Calvin Johnson (@CLE), Ricky Williams (the probable lone back @ CAR), and Brady, crew, and defense (vs NYJ).

Follow Daniel_Doelling on Twitter for one-on-one fantasy football help!

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It’s crazy all the places we can look for and get Fantasy Football advice these days. You put Fantasy Football in a Tweet you get tons of responses in seconds. People have been reading my article for a little advice and for entertainment, I assume. But these last two weeks I’ve been the one needing advice.

If you recall, I talked about being a head of the curve and said how Beanie Wells was going to have his break out game and take over as the #1 back in Arizona. Yeah, I was a tad bit wrong with that. It cost me a game. I lost because I took my own advice and went against the advice of others. I guess you write a couple blogs you think yourself as an expert. As the great Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friend.” So, I asked for some advice yesterday. I tweeted out asking what everyone thought of Mario Manningham. First my friend Rich chimed in, “@HackLaSalle probably not, Eli can`t get him the friggen ball!” Not exactly sagely advice, however funny none the less. Next, someone I don’t even know chimed in so thanks to FANTASYFBNYJETS who gave me this “@HackLaSalle manningham always has that chance to bust a long one, but this week looks more like a kevin boss, smith game.” Gut based instinctual type advice. Never a bad thing, though I needed a little more. Finally, my buddy Alek (who is a pretty good fantasy football player in his own right, even though I’ll bust his balls.) came through with this gem “

@HackLaSalle Chargers give up the 7th least amount of fantasy points to opposing WR’s. Only allowed 4 WR TD’s all season.” That’s other worldly advice right there. That’s the kind of stuff if I did a real meat and potatoes kind of fantasy blog I’d love to have. Alek gave me this advice to NOT start Manningham. I took it as the complete opposite. My thinking is if Steve Smith 1.0 isn’t getting in the end zone and I’m not sold on Hixon or Nicks as better than Manningham. All things being equal, in a PPR league where Manningham averages 13 points, I should be looking for a 10 to 13 point game for Manningham. I can live with that.

There’s another little caveat, the league that I have Manningham we have to pay five dollars per drop/add. So, I’m looking at save five bucks at the end of the season and still try and be victorious. I have to admit if it wasn’t for the fee and the waiver wire being full of poo, I may have made a move. In getting some advice I had to dish some out. The aforementioned FANTASYFBNYJETS asked me a simple start/sit between Flacco and Matty Ice. To me the choice was clear. With QBs, I always look at the defenses. Flacco is facing the Bengals D. Cincy’s D has been good all season and they always get up for a big game vs The Ravens. Matty Ice is going against the Redskins. As we all know, the Redskins are barely a professional football team. What you may be thinking is that the Falcons are just going to ground the ball and Ryan may not get that many points. Even though the Skins are 5th in pass defense and 22nd in rush defense I still feel confident in my pick.

Then, in the evening last night I got a text from one of my closest friends Kevin Brady it read, “I’m thinking about taking the zero.” Damnit man, didn’t I already advise against this? Kevin’s in the league with me where it’s five dollars a transaction. He picked two excellent TEs for this season grabbing Schiancoe and Cooley. Schiancoe’s on the bye and Cooley’s done for the year.  As I mentioned before the waiver wire is filled with poo. In this case where he’d have to lose the five dollars on someone who may not get him any more points than the zero Shiancoe or Cooley would earn him in that slot, I may have recommended it. But if you recall in my ill fated “ahead of the curve” column I gave everyone a replacement for Cooley, Fred Davis. He’s available in our league and I think could be worth the five spot you’re going to have to pay to get him.

As for you humble reader, I’ll be hanging out on Twitter fielding questions from now until about 10:30 and then you may be able to catch me on there again before the 4 O’clock games. Ask me your start/sits and everything else. That way if you lose, you have someone else to blame

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Here is some last minute analysis on for week 9.  This is a make or break week and there have been many injuries and some intriguing matchups, this may help you as you look at your lineup Sunday morning.

Washington at Atlanta- The Redskins off a bye week and the Falcons are coming off a shootout loss against the Saints.  Even with the bye week the Skins are still lousy, but ATL’s defense has not been great this year and they are susceptible to the pass, with other teams on a bye, you can take a gamble on Santana Moss, and maybe even a look at Fred Davis, who is taking over for Cooley.  As for the Falcons, go ahead and play their top guys, I expect them to win easily.

Baltimore at Cincinnati- Great match up division rivals.  Baltimore’s offense is an enigma to me, I just do not get it, so many check downs.  Ray Rice is a fantasy must start as he benefits from the check downs, look for Flacco to put together something this week as well.  As for the Bengals, Carson Palmer has been great this year and I do not think that the Ravens D puts fear into teams as it once did, he should have a great game.  Look for Chad Ochocinco to make them “kiss the babies!”   Be careful of Cedric Benson, he has had a great season, but the Ravens know he was the first back to have 100 yards against them in about 2 years, they will be focused on stopping him.  Look for Chris Henry to make some big plays for the Bengals as well.

Arizona at Chicago- Wow, two teams that are some much alike, good one week and horrible the next.  I have been waiting for Fitzgerald and Boldin to do something, I have a feeling it may be this week, but the offensive line will have to protect Warner.  For Chicago, they will ride Forte as far as they can, I do expect Jay Cutler to have a good game as the Cards will put 8 in the box to stop the run.  Devin Hester has been averaging 80 yards a game the last few weeks, he is becoming a must start as a receiver.

Houston at Indianapolis- This is the biggest game in the Texans history and the Colts have lost Bob Sanders, and two cornerbacks to season ending injuries.  Look for a strong passing game for Matt Schaub.  We all know about Andre Johnson, but look at Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter to get some looks as well as Ryan Moats to take some carries from Steve Slaton.  I still think the Colts will win, because they are the Colts and that’s what they do, for their players, its business as usual, play all of their normal guys and look for Garcon and Collie to make more of a difference this week.

Miami at New England- The Pats after a bye are unstoppable, but the ‘Fins have the Pats number.  We all know this is the matchup that started the “Wildcat” phenomenon, the the second matchup Bellichek stopped it completely.  With that said, you still have to play Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, they will get the ball early and often.  Keep this name in mind, Devon Bess, he may be a difference maker is this game as the Pats will look to stop Ted Ginn, Jr.  On the Pats side, play all of their receivers, and shy away from any of their RBs, as the Dolphins cornerbacks are young and Brady will be passing all day.  A few sleepers for the Pats, Sam Aiken, a third receiver who will be open because of Moss and Welker, and Chris Baker, TE, Watson has been banged up, this guy can catch the ball too.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay- Poor Tampa Bay, they have the Pack after they lost to Brett Favre last week.  I see no problem playing Rodgers, Driver, Jennings, and Grant and their Defense as Josh Freeman, the Bucs 1^st round pick will be making his first start.  The only bright spot for the Bucs is that Charles Woodson is out for GB, they may have a long pass play, that’s about it, stay away from any player on the Bucs.

Kansas City at Jacksonville- Bad teams means ugly games.  On the Jax side, MJD is a must start, and even Garrard and Sims Walker are guys to consider starting against a bad team.  For KC, wow, this is tough because they have some decent receivers but they cannot catch the ball and they are one of the worst offenses in the league, play guys at your own risk.

Detroit at Seattle- This is what Seattle needs, a team like Detroit to come in and help jump start their offense.  The Seahawks let Edge go, so they must like what they have at RB, but I don’t, these guys are not Stephen Jackson, but of you have to, you know Julius Jones will get touches.  Look at John Carlson and Deion Branch to have decent games as well.  For Detroit, Kevin Smith is a must start as Seattle’s defense has injury problems.  Megatron (Calvin Johnson) is still a game time decision, so keep an eye on the reports.  If you have to pick someone up, look at Bryant Johnson, he will have increased targets if Megatron does not play.

Carolina at New Orleans- I still do not think that the Panthers have solved their offensive problems, but they realized that they have to run the ball, so look at De Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to get a lot of touches.  Do not count the original Steve Smith out, he makes things happen, keep him on your radar.  For the Saints, like the Colts, business as usual, I like all of their guys, Brees, Colston, Shockey, Thomas, and look at Bush to get more touches, they have been increasing each week.

San Diego at New York Giants- Two more teams that look great and then horrible, but I expect a shoot out and the Giants to win.  San Diego will throw the ball and Vincent Jackson is on fire, so look at Rivers and Gates to have big games too.  I am still not sold on their running game, but they are giving Tomlinson the ball, so he is a good play too, stay away from Sproles as his touches are going down. Manning will have a good game, but look for the Giants to run early and often, Bradshaw has been quiet, but I feel he will have a good game.  Their receivers have been good, but each week a new one steps up, Steve Smith is consistent, but Manningham and Nicks can be good plays as well in deep leagues.

Tennessee at San Francisco- Vince Young is back and the Titans have won, his stats are ugly, but the guy wins.  Chris Johnson is having a great season and should have another good game but do not expect a 200 yarder this week.  Nate Washington is healthy and coming along as well, keep an eye on him to see if VY looks at him more.  For San Fran, Frank Gore is back and running well, he is a safe play the rest of the year.  Michael Crabtree is for real and will eat up the Titans secondary.  Alex Smith and Vernon Davis are solid starts here too.

Dallas at Philadelphia- This should be a great game, an offensive game.  The Eagles have been putting McNabb in the shot gun more and it has paid off he is throwing better and more touchdowns.  Expect the Eagles speedy receivers to give the Dallas defense a hard time, Desean Jackson should continue to light up defenses.  Brian Westbrook should play this weekend, but look at the rookie, Lesean McCoy to steal some touches from him.  On the Cowboys side, I am not sold on Romo this game, the Eagles have stout defense and may great jumps in the passing lanes.  With that said, they have enough fire power to make this a great game.  Miles Austin will be held in check, but look for Jason Witten to finally have a good game, and Roy Williams is doing his best T.O. impression, he may do well also.  Don’t sleep on Marion Barber either.

Pittsburgh at Denver- Just like the Pats, the Steelers are great after a bye.  Denver is licking their wounds from another AFC North Team’s beat down last week in Baltimore, now they have the Steelers to deal with.  Expect the Steelers defense to pressure Orton and stop the Denver running game, in my opinion, only Brandon Marshall is a good start for Denver.  For the Steelers, Big Ben wants to be in the no huddle more, look for that this Monday, he has been great this year and is becoming a top fantasy QB.  With Ty Law expected to play corner back for the Broncos this week, that means their defense is banged up, look for the Steelers receivers to make a lot of plays, and look at Mike Wallace to have a deep pass in the play action.  Don’t worry about Hines Ward, he won’t be shut out this week.  Look for Mendenhall to carry the load on the ground, with Parker getting some touches.

Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and ask me questions about your lineup Sunday morning.

You can also email me at sportsguymike@gmail.com with fantasy questions and suggestions for my weekly blog!

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With week 8 now in the books and some of the bye weeks have caught up to you and maybe you have lost some of your players due to injury, now it is time to assess your team and the damage.  I know I cannot keep giving the “bad matchup” excuse, but seriously, I play Brady in his 6 TD game, Philly when then scored TDs on defense and Chris Johnson when he has over 200 yards and a few scores.  A once promising comeback to my poor start has left me for dead.  But this isn’t about me, its about the GMs that are looking to me for fantasy football advice, so forget what you read above!

I did have a few questions from some followers of the blog (I would love to get more, email me at sportsguymike@gmail.com!)

Q:  If I am looking to add and drop players, what should I look for?

A: If you have read my blog in the past, you know I am a numbers guy, I work in sales and I am surrounded by numbers and projections.  So when I look at players to add or drop I look at what they have done weekly and break that down.  Look at someone who I have coveted all season as a sleeper, Mike Wallace (WR, Pitt) he is stats and targets have steadily increased and he even has a few rushes in the last few games.  Not a bad pickup as the Broncos had a rough week and the Steelers are coming off a by.  You can also look at big play ability.  There are a few guys that have the ability to create big plays with low touches.  The Chargers receiving corps have plenty of those guys, I know Vincent Jackson isn’t available, but look at Malcom Floyd, now that Chambers has left, he get more targets and he averages 22.8 yards per catch.  That is 2 points every time he catches the ball, not a bad average.  Lastly, injuries, they happen every week, Cooley, was another one that hurt everyone, don’t just look at his back up, look at guys that are red zone targets, Chris Baker (NE), Matt Spaeth, and look at Bo Scaife, now the VY is back, his targets should be way up.

Q:  When I set my lineups, should I look for RB or WR with my flex, or unbalanced lineup?

A: I have always been the guy that soaks up the RBs and plays them all the time with my flex or unbalanced lineup.  One of my leagues, the line up calls for 1 RB, 1 WR, and 2 RB/WR flex options.  I always play 3 RBs and 1 WR.  This season, it is not necessarily the best way using this strategy.  With some many teams using more than 2, and even sometimes 3 RBs, this can be tricky.  Even this year, the usual suspects of number 1 WRs are not producing like they once were.  Who would have thought that Larry Fitzgerald has 7 more fantasy points than Donald Driver, and 16 points less than Vincent Jackson?  Unless you have Peterson, Turner, or Forte, you must look at the depth chart before you play all of the RBs at flex spot.  This is the year of the WR in my opinion and they are now becoming they way to win games.

Email me at sportsguymike@gmail.com with any questions or suggestions on fantasy articles.

Follow me on Twitter and ask me last minute questions on Sunday about your line up, http://twitter.com/sportsguymike

Good Luck in week 9, more to come from Sports Guy Mike!

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One of the largest disappointments of week 8 was Steve Slaton. With two receptions and one rush, he gained a total of eleven yards and was replaced after a fumble by Ryan Moats. We all know what he did last year and at the draft position many of us took, including myself, he was certainly looked at as having a huge upside. Last week was especially an upset. With Buffalo last in the league in rushing yards per game, he easily could have equaled or out done Moats. Don’t look on Moats too much but certainly pick him up if you have Slaton. That game may greatly slash his carries and may now only be in the game for passes (with Owen Daniels out now, that may even increase. Kubiak isn’t stuck on one RB, and hinted at using three.

Put anther TE in the trash bag. Owen Daniels is out for the year. He came out of the same game Slaton was benched in with one catch for 22 yards. Not as much as a disappointment (though this did kill some of my teams) but more of a tragedy. Who will replace him? Will he put up similar stats? Are there any other options for TE for those in fantasy football leagues? I can only answer the ladder question- not really. But really many could see this coming, or at least I could. It was either him or Shaub to go down, and Daniels stole that spotlight.

Another disappointment of mine was Mike Sims-Walker. The man had a great game vs the Titans in week 4 when the two teams played each other (7 receptions, 91 yards, 2 TDs) , but only had 9 yards with 2 receptions last week. I’m still big on the 6’2”, 214 pound WR, just not as high as I once was.

Put blame on Garrard for Sims-Walker’s poor game. He went 14- 27, with 139 and 2 picks! That’s 3 points in NFL.com leagues. That was pathetic. Maybe the Titans are turning around. Maybe Garrard is greatly regressing. We’ll find out next week when Garrard (and Sims-Walker) take on Kansas City this week and when the Titans face the 49ers.

Avery can be said to be a disapointment.Many put faith in him because their normal starters were on byes and simply because he was facing the Lions. Going 1 catch for 15 yards just isn’t enough. I guess we can blame his poor game on Josh Brown’s and Steven Jackon’s monster games.

Now I started Orton in the league I had him in, and he, while completing 23 of 37 passes, only managed 152 yards against a below average and aging Baltimore defense. He averages around 225 yards and a TD, which a minimum I was expecting. But nope, he shut me down. At least he didn’t get  picked off.

Minimal disappointment: Peyton Manning. He didn’t explode or even throw a TD  (Addai did that). In an NFL.com standard league, he put up 13 points. Not what one expects when starting Peyton Manning.

Other disappointment: Bulger, Holt, Grant, Rice, Boldin (though I wasn’t high on him), Giants defense (this IS the real NYG team), Nicks, Hixon, Smith, Eli, Housh.

Follow Daniel_Doelling on Twitter for one-on-one fantasy advice!

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During the draft a couple things may be difficult to handle. A quick example of a couple of those distractions: 1. Focusing on who to draft when the two idiots sitting next to you are arguing for and against you taking a player. 2. Keeping your draft sheet clean of food and 3.Allowing a player’s name value sway your opinion of him.

It happens every year to just about every fantasy football player. A high pick will be wasted on a fading superstar. Maybe it was LaDainian or Fast Willie this year. In year’s past it could have been Garrison Hearst or Marshall Faulk. Their name draws you in. You remember the good times. You think how can this guy hurt me, he’s been stellar his whole career. You blurt out the name and immediately you regret it. As the single digit points come in week after week, you think about cutting him. The problem with cutting him is he’s a thoroughbred. He has a pedigree. DAMNIT, he’s a future hall of famer he’s going to turn it around. Meanwhile, your season slides further and further into the abyss.

We’re hitting the mid way point here in week 8 and those of you who drafted behind the curve are sitting there with a roster of: Jake Delhomme, Larry Johnson, Roy Williams and Randy McMicheal. Why would you have a team like that? Not because you weren’t prepared, but because the name value drew you in. I fell victim to it in one of my leagues, I’m not immune. I drafted Larry Johnson AND Willie Parker. OOF. I cut ways with Johnson this week, mercifully. I cut him for Chad Simpson Why Chad Simpson? Joseph Addai isn’t lighting the world on fire and I’m trying to be ahead of the curve. I did take out a small bit of insurance of Grandmama. I picked up Kolby Smith. When your roster is full of garbage wasting a space on Kolby Smith really doesn’t seem like too much of a risk.

Sports Guy Mike wrote in his article this week beware the one hit wonder. There’s no reason to start scrambling for Devin Thomas, Spencer Havner or Sam Aiken after their bigish weeks. (or Antwaan Randle El for that matter, I’ve made that mistake). What you need to do is try to PREDICT the one hit wonder not react to the one hit wonders. Unless you’re in a league like my favorite league, where we have specific roster requirements, you have a team full of starters with some scrubs on the bench. After your studs bye week passes you start trimming the fat off the team trying to get a team full of players that can give you the best chance of winning the rest of the way. That, my friends, is when you should try and get yourself ahead of the curve.

I had Jerome Harrison targeted in a number of leagues. I was able to grabbed him in a draft in one league and off the waiver wire in another. He helped me win a few games in both leagues. As you may have read last week I was quick to get rid of him. Hanging on to Harrison would have put me behind the curve. Whereas at one point in time he was a very ahead of the curve selection; his value peaked. After that it was time to cut bait and move on. My co-GM and I targeted two running backs that we knew were risky this season but could pay big dividends as keepers next year. We snagged Fred Jackson and Rashard Mendenhall. We knew that Jackson would give us a few weeks of productivity before Marshawn Lynch came back. Then we assumed that Willie Parker wasn’t coming back to Pittsburgh in 2010. We had no idea what Medenhall would give us this year but we had to take the risk. We had to try and stay ahead of the curve. Not every pick needs to be out of left field. You can pick those solid week in and week out starters. You just need to have a few picks that are distinctively ahead of the curve and hope that they pan out.

I figured I should put my theory to test here in Week 8:

QB ahead of the curve:

David Garrard: He’s going up against a porous Titans D that is literally historically bad.

QB behind the curve:

Matt Schaub: He’s been great this year but can he keep it up? The Bills D have picked off a league high 13 passes and Andre Johnson is nicked up.

RB ahead of the curve:

Beanie Wells: You’ve been hanging on to him on your bench, and now it’s time to unleash him. He may not be the starter but he’s going to get enough carries and catches to make him a valuable start.

RB behind the curve:

Willis McGahee: Yes, he swiped some TDs early in the year but that was early in the year. Remember we’re trying to stay ahead of the curve.

WR ahead of the curve:

I wanted to say Mike Sims-Walker but seriously the word on him has to be out there by now. The one I’m going with is:

Keenan Burton: Don’t know who he is? I’m not shocked. This wide out for the Rams will be getting a ton of looks against a below average Lions Defense. He’s averaging roughly 10 yards per catch and only has one less catch than Donnie Avery. Look for him to find the end zone this week.

WR behind the curve:

Brian Hartline: It was one week. He’s not going to average 30 yards a catch every week.

TE ahead of the curve:

Fred Davis: Ok ok he’s not playing this week. Stay on the look out for him though, you’ll thank me later. I’ll go with Brent Celek instead. Celek doesn’t get a whole lot of publicity. He’s quietly become one of the premier tight ends in fantasy football. In a tight game between the Giants and Eagles he’s going to have an impact in the red zone.

TE behind the curve:

Jason Witten: Don’t crucify me, he’s an every week start without a doubt. It’s becoming clear though that Miles Austin is taking some of his targets.

There is a flip side to being a head of the curve. You can let it get to your head. Instead of going for a sure thing, you’re grabbing that shot in the dark sleeper for shock value. The Commish of my favorite league loves to remind you about all the players he’s “discovered”. He won’t remind you that he proclaimed he discovered Micheal Koenen. Let that be the final lesson of being “ahead of the curve”. Don’t brag about that diamond in the rough. Just let the kudos come to you and hey if you feel that I helped you out send some kudos my way. You keep reading here and I will do my best to keep you ahead of the curve.

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Like most of us that are addicted to Fantasy Football, we work with some of the guys in my league.  As a new blogger I really want to talk about the usuals, start/sit and sleepers, etc (I still do though).  My co-worker suggested that I write an article on how to make a late run.  We are both 2-4 (byes weeks, 9 team league) in the same league and even though we look great on paper, we have not caught good match ups.  These are a few things that you can do if you want to compete and make a run at the playoffs.

Waiver Wire

I have mentioned this before, but since there are so many bye weeks, you can pick up a gem to use the rest of the season.  Look at the add/drops and waiver wire, if you can afford to add a player on a bye to block someone else for picking them up, go for it.  At this point, the guys on the bench are not winning you games.  Teams that are doing well and need to add something for a bye week may end up dropping something valuable.  For example, I dropped Marshawn Lynch last week because I have RB depth, but needed a Defense.  He was scooped up right away, what I didn’t notice is that he has some favorable match ups moving forward.  I got my defense, but lost a starting RB.

Don’t Jump at the One Hit Wonders!

OK we all realize that Miles Austin is for real.  But for the most part, these guys that have unbelievable games in one week that are available is because they probably won’t do it again.  You have to look at the real numbers, how many people picked up Brandon Stokely after week 1?  He scored a TD, a crazy catch that bounced off Brandon Marshall’s pads.  Let your competitors jump on those guys and concentrate on the guys who have been there before.

Analyze The Match Ups and Reports

I know I have said go with your gut and do not analyze to much, when you are 2-5, 2-4, etc, the gut just isn’t working.  Take a look at each team and who they are playing, every crucial thing at this point can help.  What are the conditions going to be, windy, sunny, rainy, snowy, this all can make a difference, unless you are the Patriots (I lost that week because of Brady, still VERY bitter).  Look at each teams defense and see what type of yardage they let up, for example, the Titans are real good against the run, but horrible against the pass, a bunch of their DBs are hurt (just ask the Pats, why do I keep bringing it up?).

Look at the Injury Report

Your team may have a bad record, but the player that plays on the “real” team may not be bad.  If the player is a little banged up, keep an eye on the injury report that come out on Wed and look at the updates on practice through the week.  This could be crucial as a player that is questionable could change at game time.  Also if the team is rolling and they are deep at that position, they may sit the guy and that could impact your lineup last minute.  Last year with “Earth, Wind, and Fire” of the Giants last year, Jacobs was sat at the last minute and it hurt me in a crucial game, they sat him last minute because they had to good RBs behind him.

Try those things and see what happens.  I truely believe that these can help, and I have used these tips in my own league.  I once had 7 RBs on my roster, because if someone dropped a good player to cover a Kicker or Def, I simply picked them up and put them on my bench and now they are a crucial part of my line-up (someone dropped Ricky Williams and Frank Gore!).

Good Luck this week, more to come.  Please email any comments or suggestions to sportsguymike@gmail.com

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With week 7 in the books, I want to look back on my blogs last week to see what I actually got right and laughing at how wrong I was on other things.  Point for a correct player, minus one for a bad call.

Must Start Results

Donald Driver- GB- 2 Catches 84 Yards and one Touchdown- I’ll take that!  He has been the most consistent receiver that Green Bay has.  Winfield is out for the Vikings this week, look to start him again along with the other WRs for GB.  I’ll take a point!

Zach Miller- Oak- 2 Catches and 15 yards, this was a miss.  I was burnt the week before by Miller in two leagues, I thought Russell finally had something, I was wrong.  At this point, there is NO Raider worth starting.  Minus point, back to zero!

Wes Welker- NE- 10 Catches, 107 Yards and a TD.  He is steady and healthy and even returning punts again, I will take that W, and say that he is a must start in any league now.  Point!

Cedric Benson- Cincy- 37 Carries, 184 Yards and a TD.  Wow, wow, wow, that is all I have to say.  I watched this guy in college and seeing him in Chicago, I never thought he was going to pan out.  He is having a great season and has the workload, must start every week, and I will take a point!

Tashard Choice- Dal- 0 Carries, 1 reception, 23 Yards.  A huge miss, or was Felix Jones healthier than we thought, either way, a big fat 0!

I went 3 for 5, 1 point, but I will take that point!

Sleepers Results

Mike Wallace- Pitt- 2 carries 19 yards, 3 receptions 72 yards and a TD.  He improves every week, and he continues to impress the Steelers and Big Ben.  If you have a league with 10 or more teams, look to grab him and have him on your bench.  ESPN has him owned in 6.1% of their leagues. Point for the sports guy!

Andre Caldwell- Cincy- 2 receptions for 19 yards.  Palmer threw to Ochocinco a lot this weekend and Chris Henry actually showed up for a game, and don’t forget Benson got 37 carries against his former team.  Keep Caldwell on your radar for deeper leagues, 11.4% owned in ESPN leagues.  Not happy, minus a point.

Shonn Green- NYJ- 19 carries 144 yards, 2 TDs.  I liked him before Washington got hurt, but now his stock has grown.  He runs hard and will share carries with Thomas Jones (stock up as well).  Pick him up if you can!  Point to me!

Sam Aiken- NE- 2 Catches 66 Yards and a TD.  Another weapon for Brady, with Galloway gone and Welker Jr (Edelman) injured, he is not a bad flex option as the Pats look to throw early and often.  Point again!

Ahman Green- GB- Nothing, inactive.  He will be for a week or two to get acclimated to the offense; I am giving myself a push!

3 for 4 with the fifth being a push, I will take that!  Total points this week 3!  More to come, later in the week!

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I’ve run our fantasy football league for 15 years and every draft has the same appetite for success – the first two round are dominated by RBs and WRs coming off the board with a couple of QBs sprinkled into the mix. With our PPR rules of 2 pts. per catch, QBs aren’t sought after despite the 6 pts. per TD (vs. 4 pts. in other leagues). This year, Brees went 7th and Brady went 8th. The #1 pick the last two years has gotten Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson and Marcus Colston. Then Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd round to complete the run on QBs. I usually wait until later and figured I would do well with McNabb (8th) and Eli Manning (12th).

Just out of curiosity, I decided to check my league’s top 10 point producers. Last week, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew were in the Top 10. Thank the bye week, but right now, 9 of the top 10 scorers are QBs – P. Manning, M. Schaub, T. Brady, Big Ben, Brees, AP, Rodgers, Favre, Rivers and Romo.

Guess I’ll have to revise my strategy next year… and I definitely won’t be McLovin’.

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Just wondering if anyone else has been lulled into the farce of ‘worst ranked pass defenses’ on any of your participating fantasy football sites. This week, I was suckered in as supposedly Eli Manning was going to carve up the 31st rated pass defense throwing to Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. I almost got scared when Brandon Jacobs caught his first pass as he edges toward his 10 catches per year average. But once again, I got sucked in by the experts as Eli cost me this week with 3 INTs and a fumble. Last week, I decided to roll Donovan McNabb vs. the Raiders (my other QB) as again I was looking at a big 300-yard game. No TDs, more INTs and again, a losing start for me.

Now, I’m convinced it’s just a NFC East QB thing. Throw in the Washington Redskins combination of Jason “Chunky Soup” Campbell and Todd “Clipboard” Collins and I wonder why I didn’t throw out a 4th rounder on Tony Romo. Maybe it was his lust affair with his roommate or maybe I was playing Jessica Simpson during the draft. I guess that’s why I don’t have Miles Austin catching passes for me either as it has made everyone forget about Jessica, the Seahawks and how Mike Shanahan taking over in Big D next year.

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What a great day, Sunday, watching sports, some great games, and yes, looking at all the schedules to see what players have the edge on who they are playing today.  Here is my take on some of the games today.

Vikings @ Steelers- This should be the best game today.  Fantasy wise, be careful with Parker and Mendenhall, the Vikes have a great run defense and with Antoine Winfield, their starting CB out, look for Big Ben to go to the pass early.  Which leads me to say, play the Steelers WRs and TEs.  For the Vikes, they are facing a great defense as well, but with Aaron Smith out, the are not as tough against the run, Peterson is still a must play.  Polamalu is scheduled to start so be a little weary  about the Vikes WRs but Shiancoe is a must play and Chester Taylor is a sleeper, remember the Steelers blitz often especially with Polamalu in the line up, Farve will look to dump offs and TEs.  Both Defenses are a must play.

49ers @ Texans- Wow, what a fantasy game to watch!  Frank Gore is 100% according to Mike Singletary, he will get a lot of touches early and often.  What do we expect from Michael Crabtree?  He has two weeks of practice and he is starting this week, either he is that good, or their receivers are that bad, my take, its a little of both.  I suggest if you have him, sit him this week and look at his targets, he needs to get comfortable with Hill.  As for the Texans, Matt Schaub is on fire, and no matter what coverage is out there, he is still getting the ball to AJ, and nothing should change today.  I expect a super high scoring game, play all relevant 49ers, except Crabtree and Coffee, play all Texans, as there should be alot of throwing.  A great sleeper is Jacoby Jones (HOU), he is a speedster that is a return guy and is now becoming a target for Schaub.

Falcons @ Cowboys- “The most important game in the Cowboy’s season,” according to their coach Wade Phillips.  Dallas is a mess and have some guys banged up.  Roy E Williams may not go and Patrick Crayton is mad that he lost his starting position.  Even so, I am not sold on ATL’s defense, there will be a steady dose of Barber and Choice and that should open up the passing game for Romo.  If you need to play a receiver due to byes, I believe Crayton and Austin are still good plays, and of course Witten.  For ATL, “Matty Ice” is a definite play against a hurting Dallas D.  Ryan spreads the ball around alot, so you can get a TD from any receiver and TE, but he loves White and Gonzo.  Norwood is hurt again, so Michael Turner will be in on all plays.  A sleeper, Jason Snelling (ATL), see above, with Norwood out, more touches and targets out of the back field.

Cards @ Giants- Boldin is questionable, and I have not seen a lot from him this year.  They have a two headed rushing attack and they have yet to really get it going in my opinion.  Look to Warner to be on the ground alot as the Giants defense is very mad about last week and getting embarrassed by the Saints.  Of course start Fitzgerald and do not forget that Neil Rackers has a great leg, should get some extra points on long field goals.  For the G-Men, they opened up the season with wide receiver questions and no the question is which one is better?  The Cards have a good run defense, but I wouldn’t worry about Jacobs or Bradshaw, they will get there years, I really expect the Giants to roll in this game and bounce back well.  So to circle back, play Fitzy, Rackers, and Warner (if you need too).  For the Giants, play everyone, you should not have a problem this week.  Sleepers? Urban (AZ) if Boldin is not a go, he is a good pickup, works the slot and has great hands.

Enjoy the games, good luck with your teams, and feel free to contact me via twitter at www.twitter.com/sportsguymike and you can email me at mikesutt23@gmail.com with questions or suggestions!

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Put ‘um in you lineup:

• New York Jets
• Colts- Bulger and gang struggle and have very bad luck. Oh, and Sanders should be in too.
• Packers
• Patriots
• Eagles
• Saints- be weary on the wildcat though. Despite what they’ve played thus far, they have not experienced this true wildcat form
• Panthers

Don’t have those week 7 elites? These should also have nice games:

• Giants- last week may have been the true defense, but only this week will tell. Warner does through for yards, but he throws for picks too.
• Cowboys
• Steelers
• 49ers
• Vikings
• Bears
• Falcons
• Chargers

Play ‘um as their ranked

• Bengals
• Raiders
• Redskins
• Texans
• Bills- if they can stop the run early, they can make Delhomme throw
• Dolphins

Don’t play them

• Rams, Chiefs, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Browns

Byes

• Jaguars, Ravens, Lions, Seahawks, Broncos, Titans

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Put ‘um in your lineup

• Dallas Clark – No doubt he and every other offensive player will produce against STL. Don’t even hesitate on it.
• Gates- Phillips should have no problem throwing his way against KC
• Witten- slight edge over Gonzo only because at the lack at WR
• Gonzalez- very favorable match up at DAL
• Cooley- Besides WR Moss, no one else is thrown too much, but gets enough targets to make plays

Nice games

• Daniels- Andre will surely be covered (which won’t stop him) leaving Owen open for some passes
• Davis- When Crabtree hits the field, Davis will be allowed to roam the field
• Shockey- Brees is his QB, and is always a threat to catch a TD
• Olsen- CIN has allowed lots of passing yards. Greg can easily put up big numbers
• Sean Ryan (KC) – SD defense, with Cromardie injured, can give up big plays. Ryan has been unheard of this season, but has 2 TDs. If you’re in need, take a try on him
• Shiancoe- Troy is going to play for PIT, but Favre likes TEs and has been hitting him for TDs the past few weeks
• Winslow- I think I see Johnson favoring Kellen as his prime target, but NE isn’t a very forgiving defense

Start ‘um as they’re ranked

• Miller (PIT)
• Celek
• Miller (OAK)
• Finley
• McMichael
• Watson- wasn’t used much against the blowout game vs TEN, doesn’t look like that will change
• Boss
• Keller

Byes

Heap, Heller, Carleson, Crumpler/Scaife, Scheffler

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